A blog about politics.

On Governing All The Time

Barack Obama, July 29, 2010, on ABC's The View:

"We shouldn't be campaigning all the time. You know there is a time to campaign, and then there is a time to govern. And what we have tried to do over the last 20 months is to govern."

Barack Obama, June 30, 2010, at a rally in Racine, Wisconsin:

"Just yesterday, I was stunned to hear the leader of the Republicans in the House say that financial reform was like using a nuclear weapon to target an ant.  That's right.  He compared the financial crisis to an ant.  The same financial crisis that led to the loss of nearly eight million jobs.  The same crisis that cost people their homes and their lives savings.  Well if the Republican leader is that out of touch with the struggles facing the American people, he should come here to Racine and ask people if they think the financial crisis was an ant.  He should ask the men and women who've been out of work for months at a time.  He should ask the Americans who send me letters every night that talk about how they're barely hanging on."

          

At a somber hearing of the House ethics committee – held in a larger room in the Congressional Visitors Center to accommodate the throng of press – the subcommittee in charge of investigating Charlie Rangel for the last 21 months referred 13 alleged violations of House rules against the former Ways & Means chairman to the full committee. “One of the most difficult tasks assigned to a member of Congress is to sit in judgment of a colleague,” said Rep. Gene Green, the Texas Democrat who led the subcommittee investigation. “The task is even more difficult when the subject of the investigation has befriended and mentored so many new members of Congress.”

The subcommittee had expected to finish their investigation by the end of 2008, Bonner said, though Rangel's lawyers seem to have drawn the process out as it evolved. The subcommittee emphasized both in the documents released Thursday and in the hearing that Rangel was given every chance to respond, was treated fairly and could have settled at any time.

Rangel, though, has insisted on his innocence, even after the ongoing investigation forced him to give up his Ways & Means gavel. Just before the hearing began, the Harlem Democrat noted that the charges lobbed against him amounted to a series of misdemeanors. “While this is not a good day for me the only good thing I can find is that there's no inference of corruption (in the charges) at all,” he told reporters leaving the House floor.

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1,000 Words: View From "The View" Edition

From our White House Photo Blog:

Reuters

President Obama appeared on the ABC talk show this morning. TIME's TV critic James Poniewozik thought it was a fluff sandwich albeit with a meaty-for-daytime-talk slice of substance salami in the middle. What was the Super Serious political take away from the interview? Snooki-Gate. There goes Darrell Issa's summer vacation.

          

Latest Column

The situation in Afghanistan is all about Pakistan.

          

Ah, Florida: Scarface, Disney, Golden Girls, Seinfeld's parents, Tiger, Elian, Crockett, Tubbs, sugar, swamps, spring training, LMFAO, oranges, chads, (Jimmy) Buffett, Marino, Lebron and so much more, including one of the most exciting Senate races in the country this cycle, a three-way match up between conservative wonder boy Marco Rubio, the bronzed chameleon Charlie Crist and one of two democratic contenders, the highway patrol congressman, Kendrick Meek, and a billionaire named Jeff Greene, whose Morrocan love den was once featured in Vanity Fair.

Beyond the obvious, here are five reasons the Sunshine State will be worth watching this year:

1. In most elections there is a battle for the middle, leading to bland nothingisms on the stump. But since this race will be a three way race, it is likely that each candidate will have a different route to victory. Rubio will need to hold the Republican vote, capture some of the anti-incumbent dissatisfaction, and get huge voter turnout at the polls. If Meek wins the primary, he can run a similar race, focused mainly on denying Crist the 30 to 45 percent of the Democratic vote the governor needs to win. Crist's job will be to convince Floridians that party labels are as outmoded as Capitol building spittoons. He will be trying to hold as much as a quarter of the Republican vote, while grabbing a chunk of the Democratic base. If Greene wins the primary, he will likely spend great gobs of his fortune on television in a so-far less-than-successful attempt to tamp down voter skepticism of a man called the "meltdown mogul" by the Wall Street Journal who decorated his Beverly Hills home with "two huge erotic paintings" and a "dark metal rendering of a dollar bill."

2. The race is already creating great tensions within the Democratic establishment. In recent months, three key Democratic aides have signed on to the Crist campaign: Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Democratic Senate boss Chuck Schumer; Eric Johnson, the former chief of staff to onetime Florida Rep. Eric Wexler; and Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, who also has worked for the Florida Education Association, Unite Here and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner. Crist has not said whether or not he will caucus with Democrats, but the fact that Crist attracted such high profile talent suggests Senate leaders want to encourage the possibility. As political handicapper Charlie Cook put it, rather diplomatically, "The conventional wisdom is that Isay would not have taken on Crist as a client if there were strong objections from the Democratic Senate Leadership."

3. This has predictably infuriated allies of Meek, who have been calling for a much more vocal and direct support from President Obama. "Come on down and show me that you mean it," Alcee Hastings, a Florida congressman and Meek booster, told me Tuesday. "I need to see him say it." Hastings called the recent image of Obama walking Pensacola's white sand beaches in shirtsleeves with Crist, "this haunting picture." In response, the White House has restated Obama's Meek endorsement and Rahm Emanuel has scheduled a fundraiser on Meek's behalf. But that is not enough for supporters like Hastings, who have threatened to withhold campaign aide from Obama in 2012 if the president does not do more. Some suspect history may be at work here as well: In 2008, relations between Meek and the Obama team were not so good after Meek decided to endorse Hillary Clinton.

4. The characters are larger than life.

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Morning Must Reads: Education

White House

--President Obama is set to deliver a speech on education policy at the National Urban League's 100th Anniversary Convention today. He will reportedly call for teacher pay to be pegged to performance, a serious bone of contention with unions.

--Harry Reid's re-election campaign is getting defensive after Nevada lost out on federal "Race to the Top" education funding, quickly trying to shift blame to Governor Gibbons.

--He's cut another pretty strong ad in keeping with the "no one can do more" efficacy theme, this time highlighting teaching jobs.

--This week's newsstand version of TIME has an arresting cover image accompanied by an equally gripping story on Afghan women and the Taliban. You can read an abridged version here, subscribe here or download the iPad version here.

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Afternoon Miscellany

--A federal judge in Phoenix issues a preliminary injunction against sections of the state's new immigration law, set to go into effect at midnight. Said Judge Susan Bolton: "There is a substantial likelihood that officers will wrongfully arrest legal resident aliens...By enforcing this statute, Arizona would impose a ‘distinct, unusual and extraordinary' burden on legal resident aliens that only the federal government has the authority to impose.”

--The DNC presents the "Republican Tea Party Contract On America." Sen. John Cornyn blasts Democrats for practicing "the politics of fear."

--Christopher Beam examines the semiotics of taxes.

--So far, there's no deal in place that would enable the Democrats to avoid an embarrassing public hearing into ethics violations allegedly committed by Rep. Charlie Rangel.

--Be sure to check out our interactive timeline of the BP spill.

--A reporter covering the Blagojevich trial, which heard closing arguments this week, says he'd vote to acquit.

--And Michael Kinsley is holding a "Boring Article Contest." Any suggestions? (I suspect it will take fewer than five comments before a witty member of the commentariat nominates this one.)

          

Most American politics is transactional. Politicians offer tax cuts, benefit increases and all kinds of other things--a new road, the right to carry a concealed handgun, etc.--in exchange for your vote. The assumption is that you are rational; you will do what you believe is in your interest. Re-election campaigns tend to serve as referendums on how well the transaction has gone. If voters feel they have benefited, politicians tend to head back to Washington. If voters feel short changed, a new crop comes to town.

This dynamic explains, in large part, why President Obama and the Democrats face such a tough time in the coming elections. No one would argue that the last two years have left the great bulk of Americans feeling more prosperous, significantly more secure or more confident in the political process. So what is the message of Obama and his Democratic peers? It could have been worse, much worse.

"I know that sometimes people don't remember how bad it was and how bad it could have been," Obama told a rally in Racine, Wis., last month. In other words, the thing of value that Obama is saying he provided to voters was preventing a negative. Instead of giving you a thing, he has prevented an un-thing. This is, for obvious reasons, not an ideal message, largely because it is based on an unknowable. How bad could it have been? Your guess is as good as mine.

But some people's guesses would be far better than both of ours. In a new paper, two well-respected economists, Alan Binder and Mark Zandi, try to estimate exactly how much worse the economic crisis would have been without various government interventions. They find that "government's total policy response" prevented the nation from lapsing into a new Great Depression, preventing an additional drop of 6.5 percent to GDP, the loss of another 8.5 million jobs and a nation that would be experiencing deflation, a scary financial spiral in which the best thing to do with your money would be to stuff it in a mattress.

That "total policy" includes the response of the Federal Reserve and both the Bush and the Obama Administrations--TARP, the stimulus, the bank stress tests, the auto industry takeover and the Fed's dramatic increase in the money supply, among other actions. Binder and Zandi do a second analysis that finds the stimulus alone had a "very substantial" impact, by rising GDP about 2 percent and adding 2.7 million jobs. That is in line with most of the other outstanding analysis.

Politically, these estimations are unlikely to matter much. The government programs all remain very unpopular. People don't feel they have benefited even as they have. Which raises another issue with the transactional nature of our political process. It doesn't work like a candy store in which you hand over a concrete thing of value (money) for a concrete thing of value (candy). More often than not, people are offering their vote for something intangible, like "hope," for instance. As long as Americans perceive that the Obama administration's response has not helped them, that may be all that matters.

          

Tancredo Plays Party-Crasher in Colorado

It's been a rough couple of weeks for Republican candidates in Colorado. As ballots are cast in advance of the August 10 GOP Senate primary, candidates Jane Norton and Ken Buck are squabbling over gender and footwear, and Buck, whose surge in the race was fueled partly by Tea Party support, has been dogged by a verbal swipe at movement members caught on video by a Democratic staffer. The duo vying for the party's gubernatorial nod aren't faring much better. The front-runner, Scott McInnis, is fighting to stay in the race after the Denver Post revealed several instances of plagiarism, and his opponent, Dan Maes, agreed to pay a fine earlier this month to end an investigation into alleged campaign-finance infractions.

Into this storm leaps Tom Tancredo, the Republican congressman and presidential candidate. A nativist who has called for Barack Obama's impeachment, suggested illegal immigrants are "coming here to kill you" and dubbed Miami a "Third World Country," Tancredo announced on Monday that he would mount a gubernatorial bid under the banner of the American Constitution Party. Colorado conservatives met the decision with unbridled scorn. A Tea Party leader said Tancredo was making "a mockery out of himself and the entire election process," while the state's GOP chairman, Dick Wadhams, blasted Tancredo's "unquenchable thirst for national media attention" and cautioned that his candidacy would torpedo Republican chances to recapture the statehouse. Others have suggested his tendency to wander beyond the right-wing's fringe could hamper Republicans in down-ticket races.

Tancredo's candidacy is not unexpected. He had previously warned of his intention to enter the race if polls showed McInnis and Maes trailing the Democratic front-runner, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. This time around, the five-term rep's penchant for incendiary rhetoric seems to be wearing thin; last week FOX News' Megyn Kelly took a break from pumping the New Black Panthers saga to tell Tancredo it was "hard to take him seriously." On Monday, Tancredo and Wadhams sparred during a joint appearance on a local radio program. When the controversial politician said he was only doing "what's necessary for the conservatives in this state," Wadhams shot back: "What's your agenda? What are you going to talk about? Impeach Obama and bomb Mecca?" It's not the sort of message that will help Republicans in a pivotal battleground state.

          

Democrats Are Different

It's hard to imagine two prominent Republican pollsters slagging a sitting Republican President. And yet here we have Pat Caddell, who gave Jimmy Carter to the world, and Doug Schoen, who helped salvage a second term for Bill Clinton, disgorging an incendiary and outrageous argument against Barack Obama on the Wall Street Journal's op-ed page. (Actually, both Caddell and Schoen are more emeritus than active when it comes to polling, but no matter.)

The argument is that Barack Obama is divisive. One reason he is divisive, they say, is that he supports immigration reform. George W. Bush supported immigration reform. The Wall Street Journal editorial page has supported immigration reform. Plenty of enlightened Republicans do--for moral reasons and, in the case of the Journal, for valid economic reasons. But Obama supports it--they aver, with zero evidence--solely for political reasons. He wants to gin up the Latino vote. One wonders--and I know I'm going out on a real limb here--if it is possible that the President supports immigration reform because it is the right thing to do. Caddell and Schoen don't even mention the possibility.

Another reason Obama is divisive is because his Justice Department hasn't paid sufficient attention to the New Black Panther Party case. You remember the New Black Panther Party, right? No? I can't imagine why. They were the jerks who dressed up in camouflage fatigues and looked threatening at a Philadelphia polling station on election day in 2008. One of them brandished a billy club, but didn't use it. Somehow the Republicans have decided this act of street theater is a major threat to democracy as we know it--well, actually no: the Republicans are hoping that they'll be able to tar the President as a crypto-black-racist. This has been a regular entry in the Republican playbook since Richard Nixon's southern strategy. Abigail Thernstrom, a George W. Bush nominee to the Civil Rights Commission, has pretty much said the case was hogwash. The idea that two putative Democrats would give it any credibility at all discredits them entirely.

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Lame Duck or Red Herring?

I have a time.com story out today about the much-anticipated lame duck session expected this December. For all the hoopla, very little is likely to happen this lame duck. But what all this hyperbole surrounding the lame duck does do is rile up the respective bases. Democrats: Dear outraged environmental groups, worry not we pass climate change in the lame duck! Republicans: Shock! Horror! The Democrats will pass crippling energy taxes in the lame duck! What neither side has said is where the magical 60th votes is going to come from between now and December. Certainly Democrats are not expecting to expand their Senate majority. Yes, there will surely be some kind of lame duck given the lethargic pace of appropriations this year but a continuing resolution on FY2011 funding is just about the only thing they're likely to do in December.

          

Morning Must Reads: Then and Now

White House

--Democrats decide they really want to run against the Tea Party this year.

--A useful rundown of what made it into their energy bill. (Some assembly required, renewable energy standard not included.)

--Surface oil on the Gulf is dissipating quickly.

--A fascinating chart on the state of Afghanistan, then and now.

--David Ignatius writes the war effort is still all about Pakistan.

--Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi have a paper out arguing the TARP, bank stress tests, Fed lending and Obama stimulus saved the U.S. from a depression. Polling suggests the American people do not see it that way and it may well be the central political challenge of the Obama presidency to convince them.

--Dan Balz listens to Tim Pawlenty and predicts thematic homogeneity in the next presidential primary:

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The Senate Does the Kabuki

I took an informal poll of Senate staffers from both sides of the aisle today. What do you think will get done by the time the Senate adjourns the end of next week? 99% of the answers: Um, Kagan?

The Senate is about to vote on the DISCLOSURE Act, the Democratic response to the Supreme Court ruling on Citizens United, it'll fail. Next week the Senate will vote on an energy bill: it will also likely fail. Give near total GOP opposition to getting nearly anything done at this point and the looming elections, it feels like Democratic leaders are going through the motions of legislation without much enthusiasm. Energy vote? Check. Citizens United vote? Check. Debate on small business jobs bill? Check. Actually, the small business jobs bill is just about the only thing that might get through the Senate, aside from Elena Kagan. Though, an agreement on that is by no means a guarantee.

The House is adjourning at the end of this week for their August recess, a week ahead of schedule. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid last week flirted with keeping the Senate in an extra week – through August 13 – but that idea died quickly. Members are anxious to get home to campaign and the wind has long gone out of Democrats' sails.

To be fair, considering this is an election year a lot more has been accomplished than I would have thought possible: health care reform, financial reregulation, a spate of small jobs bills and the supplemental. The silly season has come later than in cycles past. But it certainly has arrived now as members chafe to get home and their aides suffer from senioritis, their summer holidays tantalizingly close.

Often the Senate rushes out with a flurry of midnight votes before summer recess. This session, however, looks to go out more with a whimper than a bang.

          

There's Something in the Water in Florida

For months Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio slugged it out in Florida's Republican Senate primary, trading jabs in the press, on the trail, in TV ads; they even had a nationally televised debate on Fox. One of the earliest and nastiest primary battles of the cycle came to a premature close in April when Crist, slipping in the polls, was forced to leave the party to run as an independent. But the bloodletting in the not-so-sunny Sunshine State is far from over. Now it's the Democrats' turn.

Cherubic Congressman Kendrick Meek -- who enjoyed presumptive Democratic Senate nominee status not long ago -- is now slugging it out with Jeff Greene, eccentric credit default swap baron, alleged reef-destroying yacht enthusiast and all-around bazillionaire to the stars. And it's getting nasty.

In response to the floppy collared attack ad Scherer mentioned earlier, Greene quickly released two brutal TV spots tagging Meek as "too corrupt for Florida" (but I guess about right for Illinois?), highlighting his former ties to a developer now mired in a fraud case:

At least they haven't resorted to ripping each other's campaign signs out of neighborhood lawns. Yet.

          

No Newt

Newt Gingrich is clearly running for President. How do I know? He gets dumb and angry when running for office. When not running for office, he'll take the occasional independent stand--in opposition to the teaching of creationism in science class (it's ok to teach it as a "philosophy" in a non-science setting, he has said) and he's had some very creative ideas about urban poverty. But he really can be a complete jerk when electorate politics is dominating his frontal cortex. Latest example: his crusade against the Islamic Community Center near ground zero:

"You know, there are over a hundred mosques in New York City. I favor religious freedom," said Gingrich. "I'm quite happy if they'd come in and said, 'We want to build a community center near Central Park, we'd like to build a community center near Columbia University.' But they didn't. They said right at the edge of a place where, let's be clear, thousands of Americans were killed in an attack by radical Islamists."

In fact, there is an Islamic community center on 96th street, a few blocks from Central Park and I'm sure there's an Islamic student group, and perhaps a facility, at Columbia--but no matter.

If Newt actually believe what he claims to--that the American way is superior--he'd be in favor of placing the mosque near Ground Zero, as a demonstration of American freedom and tolerance. But he's running for President and so he has to pander to the yahoos. I'm afraid we'll be seeing this sort of un-American intolerance from more than a few of the Republicans candidates as the presidential campaign fires up; I'll be on the lookout for those who have the courage to stand up for true American principles on issues like this one.

More on Time.com:

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