The stakes in Egypt are obviously huge right now. But it feels like we’re all paying too little attention to the situation in Yemen, which Obama counter-terrorism advisor John Brennan has been described as fearing could become another Waziristan-like haven for terrorists, and where political anarchy almost certainly plays into al Qaeda’s hands. The WSJ reports today on opposition efforts to organize demonstrations in the country’s mountainous rural areas.
Over 3,000 opposition supporters gathered in the town of Maweya in Taiz province, in southern Yemen, condemning alleged oppression by the ruling party of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, according to eyewitnesses. And in Dhammar province , in central Al-Hada district, the opposition was able to gather more than 1,500 followers, in a district considered a stronghold for the ruling party.Monday’s protests are much smaller than demonstrations that drew thousands to the streets of San’a, the capital, and other urban centers late last week. Opposition leaders said they were now targeting rural areas, where loyalties to tribal and local authorities often outweigh any allegiance to Mr. Saleh’s central government. They have promised country-wide demonstrations on Thursday.
Could Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh be the next to go? At CNN.com, Yemeni expert Daniel Martin Varisco says it’s not likely:
Tunisia appears to be an exception rather than a harbinger of radical change for Yemen. The protests in Yemen reflect genuine concerns, but they are less about the present government being evil than its being ineffective.
So far the protests in the capital have not resulted in bloodshed, but allowed factions to voice the concerns they have been complaining about in private and with friends. Many Yemenis, looking at the aftermath of regime change in Iraq, prefer the existing government’s ability to provide relative security over any new civil strife.
Varisco adds that just one out of ten Yemenis have internet access, a big obstacle to organizing in a repressive state.
Still, you can be sure that the Obama team is watching this one very, very closely.