Undiplomatic or Strategic?
I'm a big fan of former Ambassador Jim Dobbins, who has served in Afghanistan and knows an awful lot about how to conduct development programs in counterinsurgency situations, but I don't think he's being very fair in criticizing Ambassador Karl Eikenberry here.
For one thing, Eikenberry's cables, which favored the witholding of additional U.S. troops until Hamid Karzai's government gets its act together, were secret. He has every right, indeed a responsibility, to make his views known in this situation. It's not his fault that the cables were leaked.
For another, it's not clear that Eikenberry and McChrystal are in disagreement with each other. They may be, but it's also possible that McChrystal has no problem with the Ambassador putting Bad Cop pressure on the Karzai government. Certainly, it would make McChrystal's task easier if the Afghan government got its act together. It's also not clear that Eikenberry opposes McChrystal's ultimate plan--because we're talking about a very long timeline here: the last of the brigades that McChrystal has apparently requested would not arrive in Afghanistan until 2011. It is quite possible to do both: to pressure Karzai--who must understand that the U.S. military is the only thing standing between him and the Taliban--and then to send an appropriate number of troops.
There has been, it seems to me, entirely too much posturing on Afghanistan strategy by people who (a) do not understand the complexities of the policy rollout and (b) have a political interest in taking sides, especially against the President. I don't think Jim Dobbins is guilty of either of those misdemeanors, but I also think this is one of those rare occasions when he's off the mark.
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1
Thank you for, once again, pointing out what should be so obvious -- this is an exceedingly complex policy, as well as an even more complex policy roll out. Really, those who insist on criticizing simply for crticism's sake should concentrate on the "bowing" issue.
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2
How can you take a more or less, lawless country which has been controlled for hundreds if not thousands of years and instantly create a country of rules and laws?
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You have a base population that is illiterate. Uneducated, and controlled by local war lords who are dependent on illegal activities as the means for their money and support.
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Are we naive to think this is going to change in 10 years? Even a 100 years?
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I see no outcome in all of this which will make any changes to Afghanistan that will give us anymore security for our own country. Increasing the troops in my mind simply increases our costs and lives lost. I believe the best approach is the Biden choice of pulling out all troops, and containing whomever is in control from spreading their ill-will outside of the borders of Afghanistan.
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Pressuring the Pakistani's to control their border with Afghanistan, and not allow the Taliban to take control of that country either.
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I believe Obama would be wise to simply say enough is enough. Pull out the troops, and concentrate on securing our own borders for a change. I think this is what the majority of Americans would also agree with. Plus if we pull out, Osama Bin Laden may think he is now safe and come out into the open for a drone to fall on his head.-
2.1
Wow. We are in full agreement, rusty. Admitting that Afghanistan, a country cobbled together without rhyme or reason by the British, is ungovernable and always has been ungovernable is simply admiitting the truth.
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I agree that best thing Obama could do is wind it down and get us out. Any money we spend there should be on economic development and humanitarian aid. After all, we did invade. But any more military expenditure is flushing good money after bad. -
2.2
It's just logic and common sense, palinatowel. Logic says after reading tons of history on Afghanistan, this is an un-winable War. Common sense says, bring out troops home and fight the fight here if need be.
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We are overwhelmed with many things at this time. Our treasury is depleated, and the money is all gone. The only outcome now is a total collaspe of our government if this continues. Sometimes success is in making the most rational decision. Rational to me is to cut our losses and get the hell out now. -
2.3
rusty,
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I'd love t see what freeinpa, spob and a few others here have to say about your honest depiction of the situation.
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They're so busy parading their super-patriotism and "kill-`em-all" tough guy posturing that they can't -- or won't -- admit the truth about Afghanistan. -
2.4
You could be talking about the US, Rusty. Lawless? If Americans truly believed in the rule of law, then why would they need to carry guns. Illiterate? Each day I read of the triumph of Fox broadcast news over all other channels of information. Uneducated? How can Americans call themselves educated when they legislate in favour of the teaching of Creationism. Controlled by local warlords? Who is the power in the GOP today? Limbaugh, Beck or Palin? And what elected office do they hold?
Before you patronise, Rusty, maybe you should take a long hard look around yourself.
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3
"It's not his fault that the cables were leaked."
And you know this to be fact how? Or is this more JK folk wisdom?
Isn't it amazing how complex these issues become to liberals after criticizing Bush for 8 years. It seems the left had all the answers back then. In reality, Obama continues to vote present while morale spirals downward among our troops.
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3.1
Freep--
I know this to be true from my own reporting, based on interviews with many of the principal players. I also know, from my own reporting, that the military members of this strategy review may have strong views about what they'd like to see as the outcome, but they are absolutely onboard with the process...Indeed, more than one has mentioned to me that Bush seriously needed a six month Iraq review in October 2003, that by stubbornly sticking with Rumsfeld's non-strategy, thousands of lives were wasted.
And as for the morale of the troops, how do you know it's sliding? In my recent conversations with members of the military--including an Army leadership conference in Tampa--there was serious concern about the nature of the mission, but absolutely no diminution in the military's incredible can-do spirit.
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3.2
Joe, thanks for finally jumping in and countering this chest-beating faux patriotism spouted by those who don;t know what they're talking about.
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3.3
I think that it is more of a case that the iberals are finally finding out how complicated this all is, freeinpa. They know that simply saying something or opposing it, like they did with Bush II is much easier than actually doing something.
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Obama can no longer "blame Bush". His own in-actions in all of this over the past year clearly shows the complexity of it all, and why Bush did not, and could not make major differences in Afghanistan.
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I still believe the choice to go into Iraq, to at least stabilize that part of the Middle East was the best choice at that time. To take at least that threat out of the equation. We have a base of operation to pull our troops out to, when Obama finally makes the decision to pull out, which as each day goes by, seems to be the direction he will go.
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However, I think when he does pull out the troops from Afghanistan, he will be perceived as being very weak. That's why I also hope he puts our troops on our own borders to secure them from the onslaught of terrorists who will be coming here to wreak havoc on the US of A. -
3.4
JK:
"there was serious concern about the nature of the mission, but absolutely no diminution in the military's incredible can-do spirit."
You unknowingly agreed by your own statement. Serious concern about the nature if the mission is exactly what is sinking morale. Fellow soldiers are dying while the higher-ups do a comprehensive review which has now gone on since March.
There have been several reports including interviews with chaplains who revealed morale is down and the concern over rising suicides is growing. The can-do spirit of these men and women is never in doubt. What is in doubt is a Commander-in-chief who cannot or will not make a decision.
And you have to excuse my laughter with your response of "by your own reporting". The writings you do can rarely be described as reporting.
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3.5
60 Minutes last night also showed a light on morale of the troops. 2 of the soldiers declined to comment back on a direct question as to how they felt about their mission.
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The 2 soldiers were responsible for the "Rhino" equipment that go around on the roads looking for IEDs. I would not go so far as to say the morale they demonstrated was low, but that they did not comment on continuation of the conflict in Afghanistan when asked "do you think what you are doing is making a difference?"
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Both of the men, simply smiled.
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The Officer in charge of this troop seemed subdued and simply glad that after 17 hours on a 12 mile section of road he was glad to get everyone back without any serious casualites.
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My 1st Cousin's Son, a Major in the Air Force special ops, just returned from a deployment in Afghanistan. He expressed how futile it all is in Afghanistan. His off the record claim was that there was "no way in hell we would ever bring any type of law and justice to Afghanistan".
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I think after 30 years the people will not trust anyone. The Taliban seem to be the only ones that have brought them any type of government. Everyone that has invaded Afghanistan has left piles of rusting machines and lots of ordinance behind, nothing more.
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I think you are correct freeinpa, and Joe is not, that morale is waning, and it's time to bring them home.
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It is a tad ironic that the U.S. criticizes the Karzai government for its corruption while a story breaks in The New York Times detailing how Republicans and Democrats in the House read verbatim transcripts of Genetech (big pharma) lobbyist talking points into the Congressional record.
Why are we bothering in Afghanistan? The country has been ungovernable since the British created it and we are not likely to change that. It is a basically a series of fiefdoms, dominated by local warlords, drug runners, religious zealots and lackeys of various stripes.
I hope Obama does the wise thing and gets us out of the middle of what is a no-win situation. While conservatives want to beat their chests and shout about troop morale and "winning the war," they know better. This is not a "winnable war." It;'s a decades long civil war for local control.
The best thing we could do for troop morale is to deny the Bush era bogus claim that we are "spreading democracy" and bring our troops home.
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Maybe this Afghan MP doesn't "understand the complexities of the policy rollout", Mr. Klein:
http://www.mantlethought.org/content/voice-crying-afghanistan
"In Afghanistan every day we are mourning civilian casualties as a result of the U.S./NATO bombardments and the use of illegal massive weapons. In my own hometown, over 150 civilians, many of them women and children, were brutally killed when U.S. warplanes dropped 2000-pound bombs on two villages. Dropping thousands of cluster bombs and use of depleted-uranium and white phosphorus in bombs rained on Afghanistan have caused terrible environmental and health problems in my country.
The people of the United States should know that the people of Afghanistan want peace, liberation and democracy, but the current occupation is exactly against these values and has doubled our miseries and problems. We have come to the point that achieving these values is the sole responsibility of our people and its democratic-minded forces, those who claim to donate these values will only push us towered slavery.
I believe that the U.S./NATO governments in Afghanistan and wastes the tax-payers money in the wrong way. The money they are spending and the lives they are sacrificing is not for our poor people, but rather it adds to their miseries. So you should continue to put pressure on your government to pull out of Afghanistan.
People of the United States and the world should know that their troops are not in Afghanistan with gifts of freedom and democracy, but to nourish and support a bunch of criminal rulers—they are simply wasting their blood and money.
Afghan people have found by experience in the past few years that the West once used us in its chess game during the Cold War, which cost us over two million lives and completely destroyed Afghanistan's infrastructure. Now they are trying to use us in another such power struggle against its rising rivals in Asia. Therefore, we say no to this occupation and want all the troops to withdraw Afghanistan as soon as possible.
The anti-occupation sentiments are very high among our people today. There have been many anti-U.S./NATO protests in every corner of Afghanistan, and if these troops did not pull out voluntarily, soon they will face greater resistance from our people. Terrorist groups such as the Taliban and Al-Qaeda may get the most of out of these mass protests."
http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/05/11/the-gas-must-flow/
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he last of the brigades that McChrystal has apparently requested would not arrive in Afghanistan until 2011.
Query: Will our troops still be fighting in Afghanistan in 2018 when the first generation of post-9/11 Americans becomes eligible to fight?
Hard to believe that, 8 years after 9/11, we are planning to rotate troops into Afghanistan 10 years after the attacks in order to, ostensibly, being those who attacked us to justice.
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Back to the original point of the blog post, I agree with Klein's take on the Dobbins article which I found to be contradictory and confusing. The point of the Viet Nam anecdote was lost on me. Appealing for unity of thought and purpose made me think of the insane unity prior to the Iraq invasion.
To draw on Klein's earlier blog about the role of China and Russia in the Iran squirrel chase, I tend to believe that both countries are content to pursue productive economic development and let the US be distracted with pointless lost causes. It's long past the time that even a good poker player would have counted the losses and withdrawn.
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Much of the blather come from the usual suspects: those who don't sit in the Situation Room, thrive on gossip and then make grand statements on the state of play. If the President wants to show real strength he should talk directly to the American people and tell them why the blood of our children, brothers and sister etc should not be spilled in this futile war. By all means help Pakistan, an established nation state. Leave Afghanistan to the warlords. We will get no thanks in the end.
Don't let the armchair generals dictate policy. Remember 5 Deferments Dick? Of course, if Dick, the Kagans and Kristol want to volunteer we can surely send them as "special forces".
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9
As a military parent, I understand that having the policy being reviewed is bound to influence morale somewhat. Then again our troops are adults living in a democracy, and that comes with the territory.
The fault here, however, lies not with the President asking questions, and re-asking them when the answers are not satisfactory... that's his job. The fault is with the leakers who made the thing into a public process, and the pundits who have whatever axe to grind about rushing the thing rather than doing it right. Conditions there are constantly changing, and a review after the election was absolutely in order, and an obvious step to take.
If no one ever gave a good answer about how and when we get out, it was common sense to keep asking questions, rather than simply start shipping people over there, and body bags home, without even a planned end in sight.
This one is not easy and ideology is an insufficient prism through which to do it. Bad things will happen if we just leave, bad things will happen if we do too much, and bad things will happen if we do a bad job somewhere in between. It's a reverse optimization problem of figuring out the least bad at the least cost. And let us recall who got us in there in the first place... extremist ideologues, both in al Qaeda and the White House.
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