Iran Amok
There are several possible responses to the appalling news that Iran seems to have brought espionage charges against three American hikers who wandered across the Kurdish border. Taken together with Iran's apparent decision not to agree to the nuclear treaty it had agreed to, this is yet another signal of the Iranian regime going off the rails. No doubt, assorted neoconservatives in the U.S. will want to use this as an excuse to whack the Khamenei-Whomever government rhetorically, economically and toss in some use of force threats as well.
Which will give the regime exactly what it wants and needs: proof that the Great Satan exists. I've mentioned before my favorite piece of official graffiti painted on the old U.S. Embassy in Tehran: "On the day the Great Satan praises us, we shall mourn." It always seemed a classic bit of ju-jitsu to me: Want to make the Iranian leaders uncomfortable? Praise them. Or, at least, don't play into their need for a satanic enemy.
This is essentially what Barack Obama has been doing this year: acting reasonably toward Iran, which drives the regime crazy. Clearly, Khamenei-Ahmadi-Whomever are on the defensive. Obama's negotiating tactics have established that it's Iran, not the U.S., that is the impediment to a more peaceful world. That's news? You might ask. Well, yes, to much of the world. It has placed our fair-weather European allies firmly on our side and even has the Russians--at least, their putative president Dmitri Medvedev, leaning toward another round of sanctions.
But most important, Obama's tactics have placed enormous internal pressure on the already divided Iranian regime. It looks even more foolish now in the eyes of its own people, after negotiating and then backing away from a nuclear deal. Its outrageous attempt to charge three hikers with espionage makes it look even dopier.
So what's a superpower to do? Nothing dramatic, for the moment. Press for the release of the hikers. Stick to the December deadline on the nuclear fuel deal and then, if the Iranians don't play, push for sanctions and hope the Russians and Chinese will cooperate, as they have on North Korea. The President should also lay out a containment and deterrence plan that makes it clear to the Iranians that we will take steps to make sure that their influence is limited in the region.
How do you do that? Quietly let the Iranians know that we will support and help with any regional efforts to resist Iranian adventurism--from Israeli efforts to seize Iranian weapons shipments to Hizballah or Hamas (a major Hizballah haul was seized a few weeks ago) to guarantees that we will provide nuclear protection for the other states in the region. The public saber-rattling should be kept to a minimum. Obama should continue to send holiday greetings and such to the Iranian people; he should make it clear to the Iranian leadership that he remains open to real talks--but that any new talks will require front-end Iranian gestures, rather than smoke and mirrors, starting with acquiescence to the nuclear deal.
The Iranians are blowing a major opportunity here. When I was in Iran last June, people would constantly ask me: Is Obama for real? Is he serious about peace? I would say yes and warn them that if they didn't respond to his opening, the next U.S. government might not be so welcoming. The regime should understand that if this opportunity is missed, the Iranian people might not be too happy, either.
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1
Stick to the December deadline on the nuclear fuel deal and then, if the Iranians don't play, push for sanctions and hope the Russians and Chinese will cooperate, as they have on North Korea.
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Um, didn't the Chinese create the North Korean problem?-
1.1
Pretty much to the same degree that France created modern American foreign policy. In other words, no, not really.
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Joe Klein:
guarantees that we will provide nuclear protection for the other states in the region
Whoah!
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What the crap does that mean? -
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What the crap does that mean?
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stuart,
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Sounds a little like promising that, if a nuke goes off over there in one of the surrounding countries, we will be the one to launch the retaliatory strike, rather than Israel doing so (and thereby having to admit they have those "weapons" no one wants to talk about).
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It's kinda a given that, if Israel were to do so, all h&ll would break loose, even among those we count on to be friendly to us. Better it come from someone a little less "provocative", from outside the area.-
3.1
I think the advisability of the United States of America engaging in thermonuclear war on behalf of Israel is...debatable, to say the least, much less promising to do so.
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3.2
stuart,
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THAT goes without saying. I would hope that, at some point, cooler heads would decide that there are really limits to what we can do (or should be agreeing to do).
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Our foreign policy really has been hi-jacked. -
3.3
Hillary has already stated we'd assist neighbors in defense but I don't believe that meant we'd launch a counter-attack. In fact the suggestion Obama might do so is preposterous.
What hilllary was suggesting was a missle defense system to prevent a rocket launch.
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3.4
" .. I don't believe that meant we'd launch a counter-attack. .."
Suppose that is what was meant.
Fear! Dread!
Demionizing the enemy has worked well for decades - in $Billions remitted to Israel every year to support a cozy lifestyle totally incongruous in that region and one that the Jews cannot maintain without plundering the dim gentiles.Protective umbrella. No war drums and no fear-mongering! No need for a war industry! No need for wasteful remittances for war materiel! Gosh - a leading player in a faux 'booming economy' and a phony 'high standard of living' goes up in smoke! [by god of abraham, a cry goes out from the fanatics, we must kill someone ..]
A ply on our goodwill and emotions will no longer cough up the $Billions for sure. Suddenly you, rdw56, would have come up with a brand new strategy - a compelling reason - to play American taxpayers for suckers - and suck away their revenues by the $Billions every year to support your lip and cozy lifestyles.
Good luck.Conclusion: The welfare of Israel (and the continuation of their parasitic way of life as they know it) depends on the perception/existence/creation of a credible enemy/threat within or without the Middle East region - and a proliferation of judeo-christian fanatics willing to part with their wealth to enrich ethnic-supremacist wise guys ..
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3.5
Come to think of it, the pauper state of Israel, a ward of the USA, may be the leading 'welfare' state in the world.
[And if the USA moved to impose economic sanctions on Israel ... a new failed state is born ... So why do we talk the lip from them?]
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And, of course, Iran can't reach us directly to retaliate.
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4.1
At least not this year --- it will take a little bit more work on their boosters . . . .
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4.2
China has had the nikes and the boosters for decades. And for years they were not really our friends.
Why didn't we rub them out?I don't feel comfortable about these Russians. Let us kick their behinds. I think we can.
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5
"this is yet another signal of the Iranian regime going off the rails"
When was it ever on the rails though?
Seriously, given the months of turmoil that Iran has been going through, it's leadership is frantically casting about to find some "outside" threat to help unite the Iranian people under its leadership. It will be a delicate matter to try and continue keeping Iran's nuclear program in check while at the same time not stirring up Iranian feelings of nationalism. -
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Joe,
You have to love Obama's subtlety. It must be driving the mullah's crazy! With his offer to let the Iranians get their uranium processed with the help of the Russians and the French, how could the Iranians argue that they only wanted it for "peaceful" purposes.
I know the Neo-cons were upset that Obama did not offer for support for the reformers, but American support in Iran is simply the "kiss of death". If Obama came out in open support of reformers, they would have been perceived as American agents. You can't make the same comparison to Reagan's support of reformers in the Soviet Union. The histories are too different.
I am reminded of the American reporter who was held hostage in Pakistan by the Pakistani Taliban. He asked his captors what they thought of Obama. The response he got would surprise Neo-cons. The Taliban said Obama was much worse of the Taliban than Bush and that his hatred of Obama was much stronger than for Bush. I got to hand it to Obama for taking the fight to the enemy.
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Actually, the Iranians did not "agree" to anything -- they said they'd consider the offer, and have made perfectly reasonable compromise suggestions.
Secondly, rather than thinking their government is "looking foolish" the people of Iran massively support their nuclear program. Polls prove it:
http://tinyurl.com/yhxzjp4Third, if a bunch of Iranian "hikers" had "accidentally strayed" onto US soil, they would have been waterboarded in Gitmo by now.
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7.1
"Third, if a bunch of Iranian "hikers" had "accidentally strayed" onto US soil, they would have been waterboarded in Gitmo by now."
Surely that would be Muslim terrorist infiltrators? Wearing orange overalls to blend in with the current Faux Alert level blanketing the country.
No, no, wait, that was under G.W. Finally (Nobel) peace has been restored.
And I agree, they agreed to buy themselves some more time to infuriate the Great Satan, thumbs akimbo. Perhaps Mr Klein is correct, praise them for their consideration and welcome them into the peace-loving energy-efficient nuclear community. And why not ask those cheeky Israelis along for parity's sake too, the scallywags.
So, new game - hug the Middle Eastern Nuclear Aspirant.
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" ..three American hikers .."
Yes, J Klein. Those Iranians have finally, definitely gone cuckoo!
Everybody knows that our spies wear easily identifiable name tags and "SPY" labels ..Take for instance that Valerie Plame: Anyone could tell from miles away that, eh, .. ...
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9
On 29 October Dodd and his banking committe voted to proceed with expanded economic sanctions against Iran.
That's hardly a gesture of goodwill that would prompt the Iranians to get in touch with their softer side, feel the love and release those "hikers" who illegally entered the territory of Iran. Charging the American detainees with espionage is what's called a right back at ya in response to the Dodd sanctions vote.
The Persians are world-class chess players but they can more than hold their own in a game of poker with the Americans.
Ref:
Dodd banking committee vote on Iran sanctions
http://tinyurl.com/yzc2apg -
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According to Mr. Klein we will get farther with Iran if we play nice. In support of his argument he claims this strategy has “placed our fair-weather European allies firmly on our side.” That's funny, I do not recall when Europeans were NOT on our side regarding Iran's nuclear program. In any event, to the extent Europe's position is more in line with our present stance it is only because Obama has adopted the same feckless European strategy of doing nothing and letting Iran drag out talks indefinitely. That we are now softer on Iran then the French is nothing to crow about. When the French president is mad at Obama for pulling his punches on Iran -- yes it is true - you run the serious risk of been seen as weak. Weak leaders rarely extract meaningful concessions from mad men, they only invite belligerence. This is something every high school Freshman learned in history class -- or at least should have learned.
Mr. Klein further claims that because of Obama's softer and gentler foreign policy even "the Russians are ... leaning toward another round of sanctions.” Now there's a firm commitment we can take to the bank. The Russian are already back-tracking on their bold promise to "lean" toward sanctions. Lets face it, the Russians do not really care if Iran acquires nuclear weapons and it is naïve to believe they will be there to support any meaningful sanctions.
Mr. Klein then suggests we should “[q]uietly let the Iranians know that we will . . . provide nuclear protection for the other states in the region.” Brilliant. Lets tell the Iranians we accept the inevitability of a nuclear Iran – that will make them give up the Nukes.
Mr. Klein suffers from the arrogant delusion that if we use smart diplomacy and sweet talk the Iranians we can convince them it is in their best interest to abandon nuclear ambitions. The problem with that logic is . . . well, it is illogical. The sad reality is having nuclear weapons is in Iran's best interest. Possession of such weapons will confer upon Iran the prestige and power that invariably comes with being a nuclear power. Iran knows painful sanctions will never materialize. Pushing for sanctions based on the hope that Russia is “leaning” in favor of them is a fool's errand.
It is obvious to anyone that cares to reflect honestly that Iran will only give up their nuclear ambitions if they believe the U.S. and its allies will use force to prevent it. That requires strong rhetoric and firm resolve. Unfortunately Mr. Kline believes Barak Obama should avoid strong words and a tough stance when taking on his adversaries -- unless perhaps it is Fox News.
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10.1
" .. It is obvious to anyone that cares to reflect honestly that Iran will only give up their nuclear ambitions if they believe the U.S. and its allies will use force to prevent it. .."
And if they think the US and Israel are bluffing then of course we will have to show them, right?
This approach worked well with Iraq: They thought we, US and Israel, were kidding -> Saddam refused to show us the nukes -> and we, Israel/USA, taught him a lesson he will never forget, didn't we?
Now do you suppose that the same trick will work with Israel?
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10.2
"Now do you suppose that the same trick will work with Israel"
Israel has never agreed to the non-proliferation treaty, never threatened anyone with extermination and never suggest it would use the weapons if it had them.
I think the estimates are they have 200. They do have 5 dolphin class subs to maintain serious deterrent value.
Iran has been in several wars and funds a long list of terror groups. They also have a crazy President and are run by religious extremists.
I don't think attacking Iran ends their ambitions. I think the hope is it delays their ability to create weapons and the dictatorship collapses before they can do so.
I also don't think Iran want the nukes for Israel and won't allow terror groups access to them. Their goal is regional political power.
If I were Obama, and authetically anti-nuke I'd be trying a lot harder for the simple reason if the Persians get a nuke the Arabs will get one too. Word is the Sauds have already started buying talent.
Actually Obama's problems in Palestine are secondary to Iran. The arabs are not going to cooperate on Palesitne until Obama does something about Iran. Something not so embarrasing
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10.3
"This approach worked well with Iraq: They thought we, US and Israel, were kidding -> Saddam refused to show us the nukes -> and we, Israel/USA, taught him a lesson he will never forget, didn't we?"
You mean "Saddam refused to show us the theoretical nukes he didn't have" right?
But I agree with what you are saying...
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10.4
It worked perfectly well in Iraq and better in Libya.
Saddam is now dead because he didn't cooperate and that so impressed the buffoon from Libya he immediately handed over all of his equipment and ended his program. -
10.5
" .. Israel has never agreed to the non-proliferation treaty, .."
The rogue state!
More reason we should invade them and take out their regime and nukes, PRONTO!" .. never threatened anyone with extermination and never suggest it would use the weapons if it had them. .."
Maybe you don't read well - even what is available online.
Regardless, your 'common sense' should warn you against writing such trash. Ask it, if it is there, why the pauper state of Israel, a ward of the USA, would build nukes - just as a very, very expensive exercise?" .. They also have a crazy President and are run by religious extremists. .."
It is possible, that only YOU can think of Israel without thinking of supremacist extremism and religious fanaticism ...
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10.6
rdw56: " .. The arabs are not going to cooperate on Palesitne until Obama does something about Iran. .."
Isn't it possible that the Arabs will co-operate even more readily if the USA does something about - say, disarms or pacifies - the eternally belligerent Israel that is a threat to its neighbors?
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10.7
"Isn't it possible that the Arabs will co-operate even more readily if the USA does something about - say, disarms or pacifies - the eternally belligerent Israel that is a threat to its neighbors"
No,
Nations have permanent interests, not permanent friends. I think that was Henry Kissinger although not original to him. The Arabs have fought and lost several wars to Israel and have watched as capitalist, free-market, democratic Israel has grown more prosperous, much stronger and vastly more technologically advanced than they.
At the same time Israel is not a threat to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or any of the gulf states. The arabs do have a long and mostly unpleasant relationship with Persia and currently the major risk.to the arab goverments are Iran's proxy terror armies.
Al Qaeda wishes to exterminate the Saudi Monarchy. The Jews wish to do business with them. .
Even if Obama could disarm Israel, and he most certaintly cannot, The Sauds would not be any safer.
It's hard to imagine a US President getting off on a worse foot than Barak Obama. He's been so clumsy and ignorant his polls are single digit in Israel. Now having backtracked on settlements and isolated Abbas his polls are sliding in the muslim world. The Arab govts have zero confidence in him. For good reason. .
The really bizarre thing here is the Arab govts ARE cooperating wth Israel. They had no problem with Israel going into Gaza and some evidence suggests the Arabs provided intelligence. Netanyahu has removed over 100 roadblocks in the WB and has been pushing economic investment by theArabs states, a manged by the arab states, outside the control and sticky fingers of the PLO. I think Qatar announced a major real estate investment, a settlement for Palestinians essentially, that had already been approved by Israel at a site suggested by them. It will be a huge jobs program and permanent economic and social benefit. The PLO will be on the outside.
It's clear what Israel and the Arabs are attempting. They want to build a real state in the WB outside the PLO/terro infrastructure while at the same time preparing the PLO/Fatah for war with Hamas. Capitalism always beats socialism.
Thomas L Freidman, the wise man of the NYTs who hasn't been right on anything in decides finally figured out the peace process is a sham. Hamas wishes to exterminate the jews and they've tried exterminating Fatah. There cannot be peace with Hamas. There cannot be a single Palestinian state if both Hamas and Fatah exist. One is going to have to exterminate the other. THe Arabs and Jews want that to be Fatah. So they are cooperating in rebuilding the civilized structures of the West Bank that Arafat and Abbas have corrupted. Just as it is inconceivable for the Sauds to consider war with Israel so it wil be for Hamas to go after Fatah.
There will be peace. The Israeli-Arab war is long over. This has been an Iranian funded proxy war that's only devastated Southern Lebanon and Gaza. They will be defeated one at a time and they will be defeated by arabs.
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"acting reasonably toward Iran, which drives the regime crazy. Clearly, Khamenei-Ahmadi-Whomever are on the defensive."
"But most important, Obama's tactics have placed enormous internal pressure on the already divided Iranian regime"
What are you babbling about? This is a dictatorship. Khamenei is supreme leader until he dies. He's not under any pressure.
They just pretended to have an election. Did a horrible job of it yet the govt is intact and over400 of those who protested are in jail and many will never get out.
The Iranains have toyed with Obama at every opportunity and have ignored every single deadline. Deadlines mean nothing to them and they have proven they mean nothing to Obama.
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11.1
rdw56: ,i>" .. Iranains have toyed with Obama at every opportunity and have ignored every single deadline. .."
Aren't you mistakenly typing "Iranians" instead of "Israelis"?
Even going further back in time, the numerous resolutions from the UN have been ignored by Israel.
You may not be aware of that fact.
Or maybe inconvenient facts are a mere inconvenience. You may propose that you can bend fact whichever way that suits you and your view of what the world must be. After all, who can disagree with the supreme ones? Gentiles?
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"" .. It is obvious to anyone that cares to reflect honestly that Iran will only give up their nuclear ambitions if they believe the U.S. and its allies will use force to prevent it. .."
And if they think the US and Israel are bluffing then of course we will have to show them, right?"
Yes we may have to show them,
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12.1
And show Israel too?
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repzak: " .. You mean "Saddam refused to show us the theoretical nukes he didn't have" right? .."
Well. Since Blair knew - indeed he had "incontrovertible evidence" - that Saddam's nukes existed and that they could hit us in 45 minutes flat - then, according to UK and USA and Israel the Saddam nukes must have been there, mounted and the rockets fueled and idling - 7/24.
Sure you didn't miss this: Israel/USA also taught Saddam Hussein a lesson he will never forget ...
[Now if only those UK-bloods Blair,Cheney and Bush can tell us what the lesson was .. ] -
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"After all, who can disagree with the supreme ones? Gentiles"
Huh??
Is this a jews run the world thing?
If you want to know why support for Israel is so strong in the USA forget the jews. Watch the christians. There are 20x's as many and they vote.
It's not possible to overstate how stupid Osama was. Look where Israel is today versus 1998. I think that was the year Clinton maneuvered Netanyahu out of office and stated the Camp David negotiations.
Osama put the US War machine into active status. We invest 2x's as much as the rest of the world in military R&D as the rest of the world combined and they've shifted into counter-insurgency technology. They's improved every toy in their arsenal and added a bunch. Israel gets all this stuff. That's why the kill ratio was 150 to 1 in Gaza and Israel didn't break a sweat.
You've got to see the disaster of those trends. Fatah understands if they go to war with Israel they will run out of people 1st. One has to think after this latest exercise Hamas has figured that out. The fact Hezbollah didn't lift a finger to help them suggests they havw figured it ot.
Also thanks to Osama Sharon had no problems in building the fence. Now Israelis are safe and secure and can prosper. GDP growth immediately moved to levels 3x's - 4x's the level of the EU and Israel is expected to pass France in per capita GDP by 2011. They just exceeded France in arms sales. Carry these trends out and it is devastating. Israel will hit $50K in per capital income before France,,Germany and the UK hit $40K. That's a 25% advange in living standards.
This is why the Arabs are choosing Israel over Iran, Fatah over Hamas. Socialism cannot compete with Capitalism in any age, in any place.
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"It is possible, that only YOU can think of Israel without thinking of supremacist extremism and religious fanaticism"
Ever hear of youtube? The President of Iran is a certified whackjob and we've been hearing 'death to america for 30 years now from those clowns.
Next time you hear someone in Israel promising to eliminate Palestine you let me know.
Islam is about 500 years overdue on their reformation.
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The main thing the Iranians want is a deal with the US. In 2002, after working closely with the US in Afghanistan in getting rid of a common enemy (the Taliban) the Iranians offered the Bush Admin a "Grand Bargain". The US would forgo regime change option in Iran, unfreeze Iranian assets and remove the sanctions; in return Iran would stop supporting Hezbullah, and stop fighting US interests in the regime.
The Bush Admin ignored the offer, and instead came up with the Axis of Evil speech. The Iranians see US policy for the last 30 years as uninterrupted attempts to remove the Iranian regime by whatever means necessary. Most of the time, they've been right in particular under Bush. This is the main reason behind the nuclear program. They know that if they are clear nuclear capabilities, the Americans will think twice about really going after regime change.
After 30 years of this, they just don't trust the Americans even with Obama in the White House. There is a fear that "somehow" the Americans are going to trick us, and overthrow the regime. In 1953, the US overthrew the Iranian government without directly firing a shot. The Iranians are paranoid as hell that this can happen again.
Iran's policy on Israel is completely misunderstood. Iran is never going to take direct military action against Israel, because it knows the Israeli respone will be devastating, and for the Iranian regime, the only thing worth protecting is a) the regime, b) the regime and c) Iran ..... and in that order.
Ahmadinejad has never said "we will wipe Israel off the map." HE HAS NEVER SAID THIS. Most of you will still not like his view on Israel, but he has not said Iran wants to destroy Israel. He views Israel as the same as South Africa during Apartheid. Any Jew in the world can travel to Israel and adopt Israeli citizenship while Palestinians can hardly travel to the next village. Ahamadinejad says give every human being living in Israel/Palestine absolutely equal rights. Of course this is the end of a Jewish-majority state, but it is not the same as annihilating all the Jews, is it? If he wanted to annihilate the Jews, why doesn't he start with the ones in Iran? Why does he allow the Synagogues in Tehran to remain?
While this Ahmadi plan is not realistic, I have never heard a moral reason why Jews can so easily become Israeli citizens, but Christian and Muslim Palestinians cannot. I understand the need for a Jewish state, but I don't understand the moral foundations of denying someone citizenship and other rights based on their religion. Why can't there be one state, with Jerusalem as its capital, with equal rights for Christians, Muslims and Jews alike?
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16.1
Iran is supporting a dozen terror organizations including a shia terrot group in Yemen, according to a report in the NYT's today. What did Iran do in Afghanistan? What did GWB do to Iran?
There can't be one state with Jerusalem as it's capital because muslims won't accept other religions are equivalent. The Koran is clear on this.
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16.2
... And one more question. Even if you accept that the Jews don't trust the Muslims and so won't allow equal rights, why do the Israeilis treat Christian Palestinians the same way? Why not allow all Palestinian Christians in the West Bank to get Israeli citizenship, to travel without restrictions, to buy/sell land even in new Jewish settlements, to vote, etc etc etc ..... The Christian Palestinians are treated just like Muslim Palestinians but they don't even have the rich Gulf Arabs giving them money .... Most are just forced to emigrate. Interesting that Christians living in Muslim countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iran are not leaving en masse, but the ones in Israel (incl. West Bank) are. I really don't understand the Israeili policy on the Christian Palestinians.
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If that's what the Koran says, then the Ottoman caliph was breaking sharia law and no-one even noticed. Under Ottoman rule, Jerusalem was united and Muslims, Jews, and Christians were not equal but at least there no forced settlements, no suicide bombers, and no wall separating people. Jews from Europe actually migrated to the Ottoman Empire to seek refuge from persecution in Europe.
The Koran says that Moses, Jesus and Mohamed are all prophets of the same God.
If Muslims are forced to accept Jews as equals, will the Jews accept the Muslims as equals? Will they accept not being an absolute majority?
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"If Muslims are forced to accept Jews as equals, will the Jews accept the Muslims as equals? Will they accept not being an absolute majority?"
The entire reason for Israel is so jews are never a minority in their country again. So I don't beleive they will accept minority status. That means the demand for a right of return is a dead issue.
The wealthiest, freest muslims live in Israel. My understanding is the only limitation is the armed services and related security services are for jews only.
I am aware you are honest regarding Jews from Europe
emigrating to the Ottoman empire. I'm not sure that translates well to 2009. My problem, and I am no expert on either jewish or islamic history, is that the level of fundamentalism, or perhaps I mean radicalism, varies over time.GWB has managed to infuriate a great many conservatives in describing Islam as a religion of peace. I am one of them. I do think 95% of muslims are non-violent and would prefer all of this religious angst to go away and just go on with their business observing Islam while others worship their God.
The problem is the other 5% is a very large number of people and they have the support of too many of the other 95%.
Osama Bin Laden murdered 3,000 people. He and everyone affiliated with the operation have to be brought to justice. GWB believes this 5% has hi-jacked Islam and the violence has nothing to do with the religion.
I can't agree. There are no christian, jewish or athiest suicide bombers. There is a culture of death in Islam. If it's a small minority the majority have to evict them from the religion. The 95% bear a level of culpability for enabling these 5% to operate and in many cases be honored.
Today if Hamas laid down their arms and asked in live in peace there would be peace. If Israel laid down their arms and asked to live in peace they would be slaughtered.
Palestine was in much better shape before Arafat arrived. I believe the West Bank is on the road to recovery. I am assuming they do not intend to launch rockets into Israel. It's a matter of time before life in the West Bank is substantially different than in Gaza. They will be much wealthier with a nice standard of living. My understanding is Bethleham and Ramallah are two of the nicest cities in the Arab World. They have a reason to sour on terrorism and embrace civilization. Hamas is not yet ready. Eventually they will evolve or they will be crushed and very possibly by Fatah.
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18.1
I disagree on a number of points. The Jews do not have the "right" to be a majority anywhere. Saying that they do is an immoral statement. The fact of the matter is that in the entire space that Israel controls, Jews constitute just over 50% of the population. They do not have the "right" to say that they must be an absolute majority. The Arabs living in Israel are richer and better off elsewhere? Fine. But this should apply to all Arabs that are under Israeili control, including those in Gaza and the West Bank. If Israel had worked to interate the Palestinians in the West Bank after 1967, rather than just to steal their land, we wouldn't have the mess we do today.
The two-state solution is now dead, thanks in part to the settlers who have now effectively split the West Bank in two, the Israeli position on Jerusalem which Palestine will never accept, denying the right of return, as well as the position and growth of Hamas and other extremist groups. Whether they like it or not, the Israelis now have a one-state solution. They can continue the system of apartheid they now have and keep their large majority for a while; but they will not do this forever. Sooner or later, Zionist ideology will follow South Africa's apartheid into the garbage dump and there will be a system of one HUMAN BEING, one vote. the Jews will call this country Israel and the Arabs (both the Christians and the Muslims) will call it Palestine.
Saying that Islam is violent is ignorant. In 1945, looking at the destruction in Europe and the Holocaust one could have said that European Christians, in particular of Germanic and Anglo-Saxon descent were all violent, barbaric to an extent never seen before. The scale of that destruction and the systematic murder of 6 million people could have led one to believe that there was something in the DNA of these people and their religion that made them violent and that nothing could be done about it. And in fact there were many people who believed this and advocated destroying all industrial capacty in Germany. But we now know that it was not being a German that caused these people to kill on the scale that they did. It was due to many other factors that in time were overcome.
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18.2
"The Jews do not have the "right" to be a majority anywhere. Saying that they do is an immoral statement"
Of course they do. Just as the Sauds and everyone else. All nations have a right to control their borders.
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18.3
"The Jews do not have the "right" to be a majority anywhere. Saying that they do is an immoral statement"
"Of course they do. Just as the Sauds and everyone else. All nations have a right to control their borders."
No they don't have this right, if it means displacing people already living on this land (as was done in 1948). And all those that have been displaced have the right to return.
And since a two-state solution is no longer viable, then all those in the post 1967 occupied territories must be given equal rights as for all those in Israel itself. The alternative is an institionalized system of Apartheid.
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18.4
"if it means displacing people already living on this land (as was done in 1948). And all those that have been displaced have the right to return.
And since a two-state solution is no longer viable, then all those in the post 1967 occupied territories must be given equal rights as for all those in Israel itself. The alternative is an institionalized system of Apartheid"
The Jews didn't force the arabs to leave. The Arabs left. Various arab nations did evict jews from lands outside Israel. They're not looking for a right of return for obvious reasons. There isn't a right to return and it's never going to happen.
The two state solution can be viable after Palestine reforms into single state. This is going to require rebuilding Fatah and the PLO and the West Bank relative to Gaza. Since Hamas murdered so many members of Fatah it's doubtful this can happen peacefully. That's an Arab issue. Israel can facilitate this for the Arabs.
Israel is out of Gaza completely. No possibility of aparthied there. Israel has a very small footprint in the West Bank which is clearly run by Palestinians and prospering.
The glaring problem here is Israel is so successful and the Palestinians so inept. There is a lot of manipulation by other muslim players using the Palestinians as war mules to fight a fight they don't have the courage to fight themselves. The fact is everything changed after the infatada and 9/11 and with the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power with aggressive pretensions. They are currently on the opposite side of Saudi Arabia in Yemen. The Arab world is on track to make peace but it will take much time. There will be a defacto peace betwen Israel and the WB enough to allow each to focus on economic and developing their security relative to Gaza. Once Gaza is absorbed by Fatah that defacto peace will extend to Gaza and allow economic development there. Eventually a full peace will follow.
How the Arab world deals with Persia is a different matter.
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18.5
What? The Arabs just got up and left? Just like that? What, they got tired of the same old, same old? It's funny how that can happen!
If Hamas is the real obstacle to a Palestinian state, why didn't the state come about before Hamas even existed?
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19
"three American hikers who wandered across the Kurdish border"
Just take a look on Google Earth and you will notice that the nature of the terrain in the area where the three were "wandering across the Kurdish border" is so challenging (mountain face...) that it is somewhat unlikely that they were merely enjoying an after-lunch stroll through beautiful meadows....I think they knew where they were going. Strange that no media actually checked this !
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19.1
They did check it. It's a weird story of 3 dipstick kids being stupid. Why Iran is holding them who knows. They're not military and too stupid to be any kind of spy and what where they going to do in remote Iran anyway? That could be perceived in anyway a threat to Iran.
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19.2
Everytime the Americans arrest Iranians (and there are some still in custody today) they are revolutionary guards and this fact is never disputed. Everytime the Iranians arrest Americans, they are innocent simple people, "stupid kids"; just unlucky people in the wrong place at the wrong time? Why is that? So the CIA has no operatives in Iran at all? Why on earth are they doing then? You would hope they have somebody in Iran giving them intelligence!! And what kind of cover would they use? Freelance journalist is not a bad cover, is it? Stupid kids is even better!
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19.3
"So the CIA has no operatives in Iran at all?"
I hope the CIA has 10,000 operatives in Iran. I'd like to see them supporting a few dozen insurgency groups targeting the religious fanatics in charge. I want to do in Iran what we did in Afghanistan in the 80's.
But this arrest is merely smacking around Obama. Which I am fine with. Iran is a hole. There was nothing in the region of interest. There are no cities or military facilities. They had backpacks and were unarmed. They were dopes. They deserve to sit in Iran prisons for a few weeks just for being stupid.
My preference for dealing with Iran is to empower Israel
and the Arabs. One of the reason the Arab govts and the West Bank all but applauded Israel in Gaza is because Hamas is funded by Iran. This will keep that group together such that in a few years, the next time Hamas attacks Israel they will batter Hamas so thoroughly Fatah will be able to come in and take control. The UN won't investigte that one but it won't be pretty. -
19.4
10,000 CIA operatives in Iran?
Support for dozens of insurgencies in Iran just like in Afghanistan in the 1980s? (What a smashing success that was, by the way).
Empower the Arabs and Israel again Iran?It's too bad Dick Cheney and the Neo-Cons didn't think of all this when W was in the white house. After 8 years of implementing these policies, just imagine what the results could have been!!! Hamas and Hizbullah would've been destroyed by their own people, the Islamic Regime in Iran would've replaced by a pro-Western regime, and Afghanistan and Iraq would've been won! The Palestinians would've been so awe struck by this new alliance with Israel, they probably would've all converted to Judaism. It's really too bad the Neo-Cons didn't think of this policy. If only ....
My suggestion is you can setup an institute, let's call it AEI for short, to refine these policies to be ready for the Palin Administration in 2013. It's just guaranteed to work.
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20
"(What a smashing success that was, by the way)."
It was as smashing success. Just ask the Russians. They were humiliated as designed and there is no doubt it contributed to Reagans great victory over commmunism as we saw 20 years ago.
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21
"My suggestion is you can setup an institute, let's call it AEI for short, to refine these policies to be ready for the Palin Administration in 2013. It's just guaranteed to work"
This could be the start of a long friendship. I'd say "I like the gut of your gib" but I don't really know what that means. Something about a sail. But what a great suggestion. I am a fan of Sarah. What gave it away?
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