A blog about politics.

Another Afghan Problem

I've been wondering if the U.S. military's projections about the training of Afghan security forces haven't been a bit rosy, and the New York Times today raises many of the same questions. I've heard conflicting reports on the Afghan National Army in recent months: On the plus side, they are said to fight well. On the minus side, 20-25% desert each year--and worse, a disproportionate number of them come from regions where the fighting isn't taking place. I'm told that most of the ANA troops in Helmand province are Dari speakers who need Pashtun interpreters to communicate with the locals.

Senator Joe Lieberman proposed a 250,000 person Afghan army last year and everyone said: great idea. But, according to the Times, we're stuck at 90,000 and backsliding, and the chances of building a larger, professional force, in a country where only 20% of the population is literate, seem dim at best. The situation with the fabulously corrupt Afghan police is even worse.

I am a big supporter of counterinsurgency strategy: it is the most humane way to operate in these sorts difficult environments against an indigenous enemy. But it can't work if you don't have (a) a reliable local government and (b) plausible local security forces who can take over operations when you leave--otherwise, it falls apart, as David Petraeus learned in Mosul during the first year of the Iraq war. So, as you read the stories about the progress of counterinsurgency  operations in Afghanistan, here's a hint: See if the local Afghan forces and government are ever mentioned. If the story only talks about the wonderful things Americans are doing to improve life for the locals, be wary. Our troops have become excellent at building security and civil society in Afghan communities, but if the Afghans aren't able to sustain the institutions we initiate, we're building sand castles.

  • Print
  • Comment
Comments (17)
Post a Comment »
  • 1

    ...but if the Afghans aren't able to sustain the institutions we initiate..
    .
    Do these insitutions we are initiating fit in with the Afghan way of thinking? Or are they just another Western idea of what we THINK they should want?
    .
    Perhaps we should put aside the rose-colored glasses for a moment and pick up the history book on the region, pausing under the chapter entitled "Past Attempts to Achieve What We Are Trying...". The British and Russian sections should be interesting. Maybe there's something there that is applicable...
    .
    On second thought, why bother? After all, we're the US! Our motives are pure. What could possibly go wrong?

  • 2

    Joe: You have to see Daniel Ellsberg's interview, Afghanistan and Vietnam are the same as described in the Pentagon Papers:

    http://wp.me/pAcJQ-v9

    We are training Afghans how to fight, ground tactics, arming them, and they are leaving in droves. Why? Because they don't get paid anything. They can't eat on what they get paid. Over the past 9 years, every family has been touched with a death or maiming in Afghanistan. They have lived in terror. An 8 year old is now 17. Revenge is mandatory. Get out Now.
    End the War(s)

  • 3

    " .. I am a big supporter of counterinsurgency strategy: it is the most humane way .. "

    That reads as if you are a big fan of it too.

    And that reads as if none of your kids and loved ones are getting shot at, say, by a drone ....

    Is there a "humane way" of kill an innocent Iraqi mother and her kids? [Yet that pre-occupation may be an inconsequential detail to you - indeed the woozy stuff of bleeding-heart, cowardly liberals ..]

    [It is OK, JK - I often worry about small things - like the SPCA which would wax philosophical about a 'humane way' of killing cows by the millions ....]

    .

    [Look at it this way: Suppose Israel was invaded in an act of wanton aggression (much like Iraq) and your Israeli were getting slaughtered by the multitudes. Under what circumstances would you be a big fan of a Goebbels who writes "I am a big supporter of counterinsurgency strategy: it is the most humane way .."?]

  • 4

    cfukara,
    .
    Throw in the wedding parties that get hit by mistake.
    .
    Can't understand why they might be upset about that. After all, we did apologize (and threw in a few thousand bucks for their trouble).
    .
    After all, in the US, after the lawsuit's settled, life returns to normal.
    .
    Why can't they just be like us?

    • 4.1

      " .. After all, in the US, after the lawsuit's settled, life returns to normal. .."

      !

    • 4.2

      " .. After all, in the US, after the lawsuit's settled, life returns to normal. .."

      "normal" for the victim - of, say, a rape or murder?

      Question: Why didn't we, the Christians, seek normalcy by way of a lawsuit for compensation in a Taliban/Al-Queda court OR merely by sticking Taliban, Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, Al Queda with a bill of, say, USA$5,000 (inclusive of a Taliban lawyer's fees) after the 9/11 attack?
      [Nay we, the Judaists and Christians, would merely forgive those who wronged us on 9/11, bless them and turn the other cheek, right?]

    • 4.3

      normal" for the victim - of, say, a rape or murder?
      .
      Nah, the victim just has to "get over it". After all, compensation was paid. And everyone knows that, under capitalism, EVERYTHING has a price, even forgetting about losing a family member to a bombing mistake by a foreign power.
      .
      After all, it's not like we meant to hit that party by mistake. And, although you didn't actually PERSONALLY ask us to come to your country and place troops there, we're just sure you have no objections.
      .
      We WERE asked to come by your government (you know, the one that you don't trust and you think is crooked and corrupt). Yeah, that one...

    • 4.4

      " .. the victim just has to "get over it". After all, compensation was paid. .."
      Did the victims (dead(!) or living) beg to be victimized and then paid compensation? [Paid with wealth looted from Iraq?] Or did we, (the neo-cons) of the imperial aggression, just decide that we will kill them, throw a few cents at them and then they MUST shut up and acquiesce to being dominated for ever?

      Such is not the spirit behind crime/punishment/retribution/reparations in civilized societies.
      [Indeed JK would introduce in our kids' school books the notion that european invasion of America, Australia and Africa (and the eventual destitution/extermination of native societies) were good for the natives because hospitals were built etc ..]

      Would we entertain such a cavalier attitude in those guilty of imperial aggression if one of our own is victimized by (an invading) foreign power?

      " .. After all, compensation was paid. .."
      ..commensurate with what we endlessly demand for each of the victims of the Lockerbioe plane crash ... and the demands were pursue withn regard to the destruction of age-old civilization and the slaughter/dislocation of millions in the Middle East.. right?
      Aren't you a bit uneasy about the idea that the perpetrator of a hateful crime would determine his/her punishment? Isn't it somewhat unacceptable that those guilty of crimes against humanity in Iraq would be 'judged' by those guilty of, and sanctioned, the same?

      And everyone knows that, under capitalism,

      You forget to add that everyone (including our vengeful, kill-philistines-forever christian god) subscribes, or must subscribe, to the tenets of "capitalism" ...

      " .. EVERYTHING has a price, even forgetting about losing a family member .."

      True. And that THAT "price" may be paid endlessly in blood as an endless vendetta.
      Welcome to the real (and heavenly) world.

    • 4.5

      cfuk,
      .
      Hope you realize that sarcasm was alive and well in all of my posts. I agree with all that you say.

    • 4.6

      I get into sarcasm/witticism now and then .. as another way of waging the good fight .

  • 5

    Joe,
    This post was prescient and insightful. I don't understand where Obama is on Afghanistan but the problem is as described.
    .
    But I think it is one part political. Obama needs to seem tough until an overwhelming majority of Americans tell him to give it up. I think during the second term he will look to wind up all U.S. participation in foreign wars.
    .
    Endless war is bad for the long-term economy.

    • 5.1

      " .. This post was prescient and insightful. .."

      My! Your bar is low.
      You must be starved.

  • 6

    Ah Joke, you're diconnected ramblings on this toilet rag known as TIME, used to be at the very least humorous, now they would hardly rate even if they were scrawled on the wall of a porta-crapper. My Marine son just finished his first tour in Afganistan's Helmond province. His job description: counter insurgency. His summary of it all: a big joke. A big horrible joke. He had the dubious honor of watching three of his fellow Marines die, while he was pretty much ordered (by NATO's rules) to do nothing. His main complaint in all of his emailings to me was: we're sick of having our hands tied. Your beloved Messiah knows this, (well maybe he does) and you do too. You always conveniently fail to mention that each month of this war under his watch becomes increasingly more deadly than the last. And still he does NOTHING! It doesn't matter how many troops we send if they are simply ordered to sit on their hands and do nothing but be open targets. At the risk of sounding barbaric and unwashed to you and you're elite liberal cronies, I say KILL 'EM ALL! If not, bring our boy's home. You're a sick joke Joe, and I look forward to the day when you're ramblings are no more. It's a comin'!

  • 7

    Endless war is bad for the long-term economy.
    .
    Unfortunately, Wall Street loves it. Can't see General Dynamics, GE, or Dow Chemical REALLY flourishing without a war somewhere.
    .
    And it is a great short-term employer (until the employees go and do something silly like getting themselves killed or seriously hurt). Then... not so good.

  • 8

    ...if the Afghans aren't able to sustain the institutions we initiate...

    How many years and how much more blood and treasure in addition to that which we have already spent do we need in order to determine if the Aghan population can (or is willing to) sustain those institutions?

    What happens after that limit has been reached? Are any of the 'serious' US policymakers who are trying to build a sustainable state in Afghanistan discussing anything but 'staying the course' or 'surging' more troops into that country?

  • 9

    " ...but if the Afghans aren't able to sustain the institutions we initiate.."

    As if they asked us to invade their lands and initiate anything ...
    So why are they fighting us - if we are such saviors?

    [Or is Joel Klein preaching to us the old Judeo-Christian "Manifest Destiny" creed that saw us raze the thriving kingdoms of Africa (Australia, Palestine and Americas) and render their people unto the cursed ignominy of slavery/colonialism/extermination?]

  • 10

    Joe, this is the same bill of goods the last administration tried to sell us on Iraq. As I recall, the military's top expert in training forces said that it would take 10-12 years to train up enough Iraqi military and police forces to make managing internal and external security feasible. And we have yet to see, I believe, if Iraq can manage its own security as we draw down forces.

    At the time, Rumsfeld was constantly upping the number of battle ready Iraq forces while reporting on the ground and internal U.S. military analyses were telling a different story. Remember when the U.S. couldn't even get the Iraq military to show up for duty in Baghdad in the numbers promised by the Iraqi government?

    And Afghanistan is even more challenging than Iraq, as the tribal regions have long acted autonomously from any central government.

    We're barking up the wrong tree there. I suspect liars like Lieberman know better, but ol' Joe has always been front and center at sacrificing our forces in service to his political agenda.

    I'm not convinced that Iraq won't devolve quickly into civil war as we continue our pull-out. As for Afghanistan, the piep dream of installing a functioning, respected central government with a functioning nationwide army is just preposterous. It's never been done and likely never will be done. Those offering empty promises of stability under a central government in Afghanistan are intentionally ignoring history for political purposes, not for any reasonable or supportable strategic scenarios,

Add Your Comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.
Swampland Daily E-mail

Get e-mail updates from TIME's Swampland in your inbox and never miss a day.

Quotes of the Day »

Get & Share
JOHN MCCAIN, Republican Senator of Arizona, offering support for President Obama's Afghanistan plan but adding that he opposes the 18-month timetable for withdrawal