A blog about politics.

Bloomberg in a Squeaker

Of all the races to watch tonight, the one everyone expected to be called right as polls closed was New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's bid for a third term. After all, the man was so insanely popular amongst the five boroughs that the city actually repealed its two-term limit so he could extend his reign. Plus, Democrats put forth a long-shot and ill-funded candidate in comptroller William Thompson Jr.

Bloomberg, a former Republican who ran this time as an Independent, spent more than $85 million of his personal fortune on the race – dwarfing the amount Thompson raised – the most cash dispensed for a self-financed campaign ever. This brings the total amount he's spent for three terms to a quarter of a billion dollars – a drop in the bucket for Bloomberg who is estimated to be worth more than $16 billion. (Full, disclosure, I worked for Bloomberg News for four years, though at the time – as it still is – the company was held in a blind trust).

The race was so close in New York that NBC News, after calling the race for Bloomberg, had to retract its call. It wasn't until more than 96% of the vote was in that the Associated Press called the race for Bloomberg who leads with 50.5% of the vote to Thompson's 46.2%. That's nearly $20 million a percentage point.

The second most expensive self-financed campaign? New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine who has spent more than $125 million of his Goldman Sachs fortune on various campaigns (Senate, governor) – more than $22.6 million on his latest reelection bid. Not that it helped him much tonight – he lost his bid for a second term to former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

So what does Bloomberg's squeaker of a reelect mean? There's a lot of voter unhappiness with incumbents out there, it seems. Especially those who've made millions on Wall Street.

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  • 1

    Jay Newton-Small:
    .
    Bloomberg's carpet-bombing negative ad campaign was scurrilous and revolting to many of us here.
    .
    ...But we also know a Democratic City machine pol when we see one, and Bill Thompson is machine incarnate.
    .
    The machine is dedicated to its own preservation, which does not, unfortunately, necessarily depend on good governance.
    .
    Bloomberg's win translates into one thing above all: voters know that in these difficult times, the incompetence and game-playing of machine politics as usual is a luxury this city can't afford right now.

  • 2

    If we include NY-23, it looks to me like the theme of this election was voters voting against Global Capitalism (Corzine, Bloomberg) and the Club For Growth.

    And that's a hint for President Obama to get off the pot and demand real accountability and re-regulation of Wall Street.

    He can start by making Elizabeth Warren Secretary of the Treasury.

    • 2.1

      Agree with your first paragraph. I assume the White House will figure out this message, but whether they do anything about it is another thing...

  • 3

    "Democratic City machine"
    .
    That is the saddest "machine" I have ever seen. When was the last time they elected a mayor? Dinkins?

    • 3.1

      They "elected" Bill Thompson Comptroller.

    • 3.2

      For reasons I don't know, nor care that much about, citizens of NYC love to have republican mayors.
      .
      Heck they shrug and change the term limits law for them.

  • 4

    So what are the Dems going to do with all these newly arriving sane Republicans now that the purity uber alles wing of the GOP has once again officially shot itself in the foot?

    • 4.1

      The Tea Party gang that was backing Hoffman have announced an ark building effort to commence tomorrow morning at 0600 hours on the St. Lawrence River, as per Glenn Beck's instructions.
      .
      rusty and company will be reporting for duty.
      .
      Meanwhile, sane conservatives are wondering if Sarah Palin's endorsement is the kiss of death.

  • 5

    Does Bloomberg have long-term political plans – Gov., even Pres.? Or would he definitely return to his biz? (since it's in trust and not sold, is why I'm asking). A little Elliot Carver-like direction from the Man himself would help, yes? If Bloomberg TV is going to make a serious run at CNBC they need to step it up. Hiring gorgeous Margaret Brennan is a big first step but they need more. After all, CNBC has raided them often (poaching Erin Burnett, among others).

  • 6

    OK, I can't let this go by:

    "After all, the man was so insanely popular amongst the five boroughs that the city actually repealed its two-term limit so he could extend his reign."

    That is NOT what happened. Twice during Bloomberg's time in office, a repeal of term limits was put to a popular vote, and twice the citizens of New York voted against it. So last fall, Bloomberg got together with city council and put it to a city council vote. Of course, with 35 of the council's 51 members barred at the time from running for re-election due to term limits, it was easy to see how that vote was gonna go.

    What's funny is that Bloomberg called Rudy Giuliani his favorite pejorative term, "disgraceful," when he tried the same thing in 2001. Just a reminder to all of us that Bloomberg lives by a separate set of rules than the rest of us.

    There's definitely a lot of fault to be laid at the feet of the Democrats for not coming up with a credible candidate to run against Bloomberg. But the fact that the guy basically pulled a dictator move and changed the law to keep himself in power, ran all but unopposed, and still had to spend nearly $100 million to win proves that he's earned a lot of ill will with his recent actions.

    But hey, who cares? The guy's going to be mayor for the rest of his life, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

  • 7

    Jay - you were very good (but wordy!) on Hardball in the wee hours. I think you're right about this being the surprise - but I also think it's likely to have been significantly about voters angry with his deciding he got another term and having the term limit changed. That's a dangerous kind of power.

    But I bet the people of New York would have been really shocked if their protest vote ended up electing the Democrat.

    Nate Silver over at 538 has more on this.

  • 8

    This initiative received 80,000 NYC signatures and still it was kept off the ballot:

    http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/07/09/make-it-happen-on-purpose/

    How would New Yorkers have answered that question?

  • 9

    Uncredited sarcasm? Or cluelessness. Hard to know.
    .
    Bloomberg's reversing term limits had nothing to do with his insane popularity. It had to do with the City Council's agreeing with him on subverting the electorate's clear (TWO referenda) direction that terms be limited.
    .
    I voted for Thompson. Not because I thought he would be a better mayor, but because process matters, a lot. Especially when the process rules have been clearly stated by the electorate.

    • 9.2

      JNS--
      .
      It is hard to reconcile saying that Bloomberg was insanely popular with voters because he and a majority of the City Council decided to reverse the results of two referendum votes, so that they could stay in office for at least another term.
      .
      Perhaps you were being sarcastic. Someone who doesn't follow NYC politics would find that sarcasm too subtle. And I am hard-pressed to find a polite adjective if you were serious.

    • 9.3

      …hmm, so calling out others, even using insults, instead of tossing flowers is de rigueur here? I'll need to remember that.

  • 10

    Putting another log on the fire, do you think if he actually was insanely popular, running against an awful candidate, that he would have spent all that money?
    .
    As someone said to me this morning, HE knew it would be close, even if the media didn't.

    • 10.1

      "do you think if he actually was insanely popular, running against an awful candidate, that he would have spent all that money?"
      .
      He did the last time.

  • 11

    That Thompson did so well is really a shocker. Honestly, I only learned who Bloomberg's opponent was because Bloomberg kept mentioning him in mailers, TV ads and internet ads. I never once saw a Thompson ad. Not one. And still Bloomberg barely squeaks by? I don't think you can call Bloomberg popular. Just rich and savvy.

    That he bought this third term for himself should be proof enough to anyone that we need publicly financed elections with real spending limits and some measure of equal media access for all legitimate candidates.

  • 12

    [...] will Democratic candidates face in 2010? What does New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's narrower-than-expected victory say about the perils of incumbency in today's [...]

  • 13

    Most New Yorkers I know are massively depressed today. It was NOT his 'insane popularity" that got him re-elected-- or got term limits over-ruled. Others have already explained how he hijacked the City Council. But what REALLY hurts, is that the pundits he owns convinced most people that Thompson didnt have a chance, so they either voted for Bloomie as a 'what the h*ll' vote, or stayed home. I KNEW Thompson could win, but the media lied to people about the double digit lead....

    Sad, sad day here in NYC. Not that I think Thompson is a hero, but I think he's a decent guy who could have led with the WILL OF THE PEOPLE. And with his crooked, entitled ways and the way he just changes statistics (or the tests!) to serve himself (ie the latest school test scores) at this point, the Emperor has found ways to insult ALL of our intelligence.

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