Anyone Watching This?
And at 11:10pm arrives the email: "DGA Looks Ahead to 2010 Election Cycle." It was that kind of night for Democrats. Or at least that's what it looked like a few hours ago, with Chris Christie cruising to an early victory over Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell whomping Creigh Deeds in Virginia. So I switched over to watch the other "Biggest Loser." (Shut up, I'm a sucker for human interest, life-changing, before-and-after stories. And they visited the White House this week. It was practically work-related viewing.)
Yet it now looks like Democrat Bill Owens may pull off a win in the special election for New York's 23rd congressional district. With 64% of polls reporting, he's up 49-45 over conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. It's hard to know whether to call that an upset, given that the district is fairly moderate and narrowly backed Obama in 2008. But it certainly suggests that Glenn Beck support and Sarah Palin robo-calls don't translate into victories everywhere. So Democrats have that to hold onto.
Meanwhile, the gay marriage referendum in Maine, where turnout was incredibly high for an off-year election, is still too close to call.UPDATE: One thought on what to make of NY-23, where Owens' lead has narrowed but looks like it will hold. I generally think it's a bit ridiculous to draw conclusions from the results of one or two off-year races, particularly special elections. But it's possible that what we're seeing in NY-23 is the continuation of a trend that started a few years ago.
In the lead-up to last year's presidential election, I spent a fair amount of time in battleground states--and in battleground counties in battleground states. I found the same thing happening in each of them, which didn't make for scintillating reading but was interesting to observe nonetheless.
Each of them were moderate Republican counties filled with the type of voters who make up NY-23--fiscally conservative, not terribly partisan, not socially liberal but not socially conservative either. And in each, the GOP had moved steadily to the right, running socially conservative candidates whose focus on hot-button issues was off-putting to these moderate voters. This was doubly true in years when the economy was suffering and therefore a major issue--like last year and, again, this year.
The result was a damaging of the GOP brand in each of these counties, with voter registration advantages moving to the Democrats and a fair number of Republicans crossing over on a regular basis to support Democratic candidates as well.
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1
If Owens wins I want ALL sharp objects removed from Rusty and Freeps domiciles.
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1.1
For themselves or for innocent bystanders?
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2
It's hard to know whether to call that an upset, given that the district is fairly moderate
96: R (64%)
98: R (81%)
00: R (60%)
02: R (100%)
04: R (63%)
08: R (65%)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district
I guess that's moderate by Sarah Palin standards...
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3
Ummmm...."fairly moderate"?
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All due respect, Amy, but last time I checked, NY-23 hadn't elected a Dem since shortly after the Civil War....
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I don't think "It's hard to know whether to call that an upset." -
4
"fairly moderate"
Shhhhh (Homer Simpson whisper voice) Amy's not that smart.
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5
Amy Sullivan:
...given that the district is fairly moderate...
"Fairly moderate" what?
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6
And in other news, Democrats are going to replace a corporate worshiping Lieberdem with a liberal out in California.
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7
Hoffman concedes-HA
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7.1
Sane wins!
Sane wins!
Sane wins!
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8
Thanks, Amy. Trying to define moderate, conservative, etc. has been tough here lately. For NY-23, I'll wait for those districts with the broken machines to report in before calling it, but it's looking good. Any updates? However, Amy, why don't YOU post more of your regular articles here, please? Your piece on Detroit's Catholic school + Jesuit ideals was fascinating. Did you interview “traditionally”, or did you go undercover, ala the film “Never Been Kissed”? Perhaps as a sub teacher or worker, or even as a student like Drew Barrymore did? (with some Aeropostale outfits you'd look young enough)
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9
Updating---Hoffman concedes-HA ...K-Lo enters a warm bath with a razor.
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10
Updating---Hoffman concedes-HA ...K-Lo enters a warm bath with a razor.
Updating--- Gov Christ laughs to himself.
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11
Updating---Hoffman concedes-HA ...K-Lo enters a warm bath with a razor.
Updating--- Gov Christ laughs to himself.
Updating--Dick Armey slinks back to Texas
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11.1
Updating---Jeebus wept.
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12
Did Kate post something recently about NY-23 but now gone? Or did Sarah hack the swamp files and make it go away?
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12.1
...KP's article ok now. But did Amy go undercover at a Catholic school for her Detroit piece? Inquisitive minds....
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13
Wasn't this district Republican since before the British were coming?
Didn't Palin and Beck provide strong support for the Republican candidate?
Be interesting to see how the right wing fundamentalists Rusty, Spob and Frreeinpa spin this one.
Come to think of it, where are they?
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13.1
"Come to think of it, where are they?"
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Formulating an argument wherein having fewer members of Congress than before is a good thing. -
13.2
They are here with me celebrating those gubernatorial asswhoopings. The little congressional district has turned blue for a year, no biggie, we are having trouble getting all bent out of shape over it.
Oh by the way, in case I didn't mention it, there was a couple of gubernatorial beatdowns last night, I know you guys were busy clinging to your little congressional victory, the way us rednecks cling to our guns. Doggone it I almost forgot, hey, did you hear about the gubernatorial asskickings last night? -
13.3
"The little congressional district has turned blue for a year, no biggie, we are having trouble getting all bent out of shape over it."
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Thank you for that.
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14
Amy, re: your update, could another factor in NY-23 (and other moderate areas you've covered) be the overwhelming “outside” influence on Hoffman's campaign (and others)? HE didn't even live in the district (Lake Placid is mostly surrounded by NY-23 but not in it) and most of his funding came from outside, let alone conservative support (Lovely Sarah, Pawlenty, flip-flopping Gingrich first for Dede then for non-R Hoff - *he's not the official R candidate*). Political and media starlets' entering a local area for support / coverage is one thing; trying to carpetbag everything instead could offend the locals, no? Have you seen similar stuff in other areas, Amy? thx
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15
The district hasn't voted for a democrat since around the Civil War.
Is that the Civil war between the North and the South or the civil war in the republican party now?
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15.1
The R Party back in the days of Lee thrashing McClellan (over and over and over) sure ain't the same as today. If Abe Lincoln could meet Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, what would they all say?
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15.2
Abe lincoln: Four score and seven years ago.
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Sarah and Michelle: What's four score mean?
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16
"fairly moderate"
Women can work for less pay.
Minorities are welcome ( there's an Italian family on the edge of town).
Drugs are tolerated (prescription only and they can't give you a buzz).
Sex education is OK in the schools (if it's abstinence only).
Rock 'n' Roll is the order of the day (Elvis, Dion, Everly brothers).
We insist on freedom of religion (OUR religion).
Different political viewpoints are considered (Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, Coulter...take your pick).That kind of fairly moderate.
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17
Seriously Amy, if the 23rd is fairly moderate, I'm a celibate priest.
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18
Oh Rusty, your tears of defeat taste ever so sweet. The Sleeping White Giant let you fools down again. A seat that has been Republican continuously since the Civil War has been Teabagged over to the Dems column, but this is a great day for Republicans?
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But what I really want to know is, is the defeat of the carpetbagger wingnut Hoffman good news or great news for conservatives?-
18.1
Actually insignifigant piper. But go ahead and hang your hat on it anyway. I guess one out of four is better than nothing.
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18.2
Hate to break this to ya piper, but that ain't tears yer a tastin'. uhhhh, towel please. And a cigarette.
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