A Little Local Perspective on the 23rd...
There's a lot of smart analysis being written about last night's elections, including great insight from my TIME colleagues Jay Newton-Small and Karen Tumulty. What do the Republican wins in Virginia and New Jersey mean for Obama's health care agenda? What challenges will Democratic candidates face in 2010? What does New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's narrower-than-expected victory say about the perils of incumbency in today's economy?
How the national parties handled the races in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City and upstate New York can tell us a lot about political strategy going forward. But what happened within the context of local political history is also informative. I've already been sending Swampland readers to the web site of my old employer, the Watertown Daily Times, throughout our coverage of upstate New York's 23rd congressional race, but following Democrat Bill Owens victory over Conservative Doug Hoffman, I can't resist two more hyperlinks.
Here's my old boss Bob Gorman, managing editor of the Daily Times, on what happened in the 23rd and what it means - for locals, state political officials and beyond.
And here's Brian Mann, a reporter for North Country Public Radio, an NPR affiliate in the 23rd.
Both posts are worth reading in full, but here's a preview of what Mann had to say:
I think my first sense that something was wrong in the Hoffman Wave came around 8pm. I arrived at the Hotel Saranac to find a distinctly underwhelming crowd.
There were plenty of reporters. Fox News had set up an entire studio, so that Sean Hannity could capture the moment of Doug Hoffman's victory.
But where were the crowds of grassroots supporters? Where were the hundreds (the tens?) of passionate activists?
...Hoffman helped to elect a Democrat in NY-23 for the first time in modern history.
What went wrong? Maybe nothing.
Maybe the traditionalist message (pro-life, opposing gay marriage) and the anti-government rhetoric simply don't appeal to enough people.
Or maybe the same factors that helped build the wave -- the sense of culture-war urgency, that whiff of triumphalism, the hectoring of the Becks and Limbaughs -- also brought it up short.
It also appears that while conservatives loathe Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a sizable number of North Country voters don't.
In fact, they kind of like and respect her. Not so shocking when you consider that she's been an elected official and GOP leader for a decade.
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1
Dick Armey scoffs at such "parochial" concerns.
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2
Thanks for the links, Kate Pickert; well done.
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2.1
Hoffman wasn't exactly a cultural warrior; he - and especially supporters - were just crypto-libertarians or at least adherents of the ClubForGrowthAtAnyCost.
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If Hoffman wanted to win, he could have taken on the corrupt Beltway establishment over things like this shocking statistic. Instead, he was on the other side.
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Don't send a tea partier to take on the corrupt establishment; they're useful idiots for it.
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3
So if the North county voters like her so much, why did she drop out? Or were they just secret admirers that she didn't know about.... As a wingnut I think the message was: RINO'S BEGONE!
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4
If these off year elections show that the electorate is unhappy with Democrats, why did the TABOR bills in Washington and Maine fail? These TABOR bills are like Dick Armey's and Grover Norquist's wet dreams. I think they'd trade fifteen New Jersey governorships for destroying the ability of a couple more states to raise revenue and fund programs.
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This is another interesting take from this guy at Watertown Daily Times link.
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5.1
Good piece SZ, thanks for the link.
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5.2
…thanks for link, stuart. Also thanks for #5.5 comment on conservatism in Kate's “Doug Hoffman's Race to Lose” post. That was *yesterday* and already it's close to being archived (thus repeating thanks here).
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5.3
Best line from that article, stuart:
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"Turns out that God didn't force Dede to throw in the towel, it was mostly a group of Republicans with a bunch of money and a dream to send a message to moderates in their ranks. A 'my dogma is bigger than yours' type thing."
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Perfect summation of what went on in the 23rd. And rusty and 2/3s and some of the other fringe righties are still crowing about "RINOS" and such. Turns out, not every Republican area in the U.S. is loaded with Beck-following lunatics who think Obama is Hitler and that everyone needs to be preparing for end times.
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The rusty crowd thinks their leading a national revolt. It's more like they're only listening to the small, vociferous gangs that are trading fevered email messages and tweets about Obama's next sinister plot.
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Kind of funny.
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Hey, rusty, where were all the grassroots activists yesterday? Read the stories linked here. When Club for Growth and PAC-backed Tea Party "organizers" went away, so did Hoffman's chances. -
5.4
thanks for that stuart. A funny, sensible column.
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5.5
deconstructiva:
thanks for #5.5 comment on conservatism
You're too kind.
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Man, I wish I was a better writer...Here a link to that comment:
link. -
5.6
Commenters:
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Actually, thank Kate Pickert, since she sent me to the Watertown Daily Times in the first place.
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...Also, thank the Watertown Daily Times for being smart enough not to put up a paywall that would stop Time Magazine correspondents and commenters from linking to them...
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6
Thanks for your most helpful coverage, Kate. Same for link to your former boss' blog.
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…that's it, really, no snark. I've run out of comments today so it's best to show appreciation for your hard work on this. -
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Actually reading the links might answer your questions 2/3s.
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8
"There's a lot of smart analysis being written about last night's elections, including great insight from my TIME colleagues Jay Newton-Small and Karen Tumulty."
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I'm sorry, but every thing that KT and JNS have said can be read any where today through out the main stream media. CW at best. Not saying that KT and JNS are not smart by the way. -
9
NY 23 was no more than a screwed up political race. Scozzafava did not represent the Republican Party views on most all of the issues. That became clear towards the end of the race.
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A more conservative enter the race, with no recognition what-so-ever until 2 weeks before the election. Couple that with Scozza's defection from the Republican party in favor of the Democrat who more clearly aligned and represented her views.
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Voters in NY 23 were clearly the ones who got screwed, especially those with a more conservative persuasion.
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9.1
rusty, read the linked articles from the hometown newspaper. You can concoct all the scenarios you want in your head, but the reality on the ground is different than your imagined scenario.
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The Republicans who got screwed were the ones run over by outside, national interests masquerading as "grass roots activists." Club for Growth and the big money interests behind the Glenn Beck Tea Party Show ran the local Republican out of the race with vile and vicious attack ads and a scurrilous, slick PR effort.
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Note the article at the lightly-attended "victory party" for Hoffman. Fox News had more people there than actual locals. It diidn't pan out for Hannity and company. Apparently, local folks didn't like having a fringe rightwinger rammed down their throats.
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As usual, the facts are at odds with your diagnosis of what happened. -
9.2
Ok palininatoga, relish your great victory in NY23, and I'll go with the wins in New Jersey and Virginia.
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Enough said!
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People like you are imbeciles and do not rate any further debate. -
9.3
*sniff* you called me a name.
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9.4
Reality is to rusty as garlic is to a vampire.
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9.5
The problem with the Dems. and Reps. is that, for the most part, don't want anyone else in the ballgame. They will do whatever it takes to do this, even supporting candiates they don't agree just because they have a R or D beside their name.They have scewed up our country. Why would any real american want to belong to either of these parties?
Neither party really wants to listen to the voters. I fax over 100 faxes to members of congress concerning there so called health care reform bills. I did not receive one reply from any of them, including the congressman in my district or my two senators.
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10
1. Political parties need to understand that all politics is local. What flies in a district in Texas may fall flat in New York, California or hell even a Florida district. Having a ridged litmus test that all candidates of your party must adhere to, regardless of local mores, is a recipe for loss. The GOP in particular needs to learn this lesson quick.
2. Trying to force an “outsider” onto a particular group is also doomed to fail, as NY-23 has so ably demonstrated. I'm sure the powers that be assumed most people in NY-23 to be hicks, but the locals did understand that they were being played. That Hoffman did not understand the local people or their concerns and did not pretend too. Bringing in Sarah Palin, Glen Beck et al only amplified that. -
11
Perspective. Another word for spin.
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12
In NY-23 over the last few days this turned into local vs outsider, and had very little to do with liberal vs conservative. Dede would have won by a significant margin because a lot of voters in the North Country are willing to cross party lines to vote for the candidate that has the best grasp of local bread-and-butter issues. Dairy subsidies, the St. Lawrence Seaway, local & state taxes on businesses - that's what North Country voters care about. Not Beck, Palin & Armey's ideological party purge. Dede was widely respected in a purple district, and for good reason - she had the best grasp of their interests after 10 years representing them in the State Assembly.
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Moderate Republicans won across the board last night, and the firebrand teabagger came up short. As someone interested in seeing a functional and rational 2-party system return to our government, I hope this trend continues.-
12.1
Moderate Republicans won across the board last night, and the firebrand teabagger came up short.
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A quibble about this: McDonnell isn't really a moderate; he just campaigned as one. -
12.2
Oh, thanks for the clarification.
I had seen him presented as one, but I'm not a Virginian. -
12.3
No thanks needed; I thought that the rest of your comment is spot-on.
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13
Saw something intriguing in another blog this morning: In an off-year election, in the midst of economic turmoil, the reigning party gained two Congressional seats. Does any fellow Swamplander know of a recent precedent?
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13.1
Maybe 1930? Depends on the definition of " economic turmoil"
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Your point is correct, but off script.
This was a bad night for BHO and the Democrats. The actual results and their effect on policy doesn't enter into it. -
13.2
Whoops, my bad -- didn't get the memo!
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From Nate Silver:
Voters in the exit poll approved of Bloomberg's performance 70-29, but a quarter of those who approved of Bloomberg voted against him anyway. Why? Because 58 percent of voters said that Bloomberg's decision to change the city's term limits law to enable him to seek a third term was a significant factor in their vote, and those voters broke against him 2:1.
That's ME!
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14.1
If I didn't fear Thompson's potential machine loyalty-derived incompetence more than I was angered at the anti-democratic process, I would have voted against Bloomberg for that reason, too.
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Bloomberg also did the smart thing, and removed the "R" from after his name...
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The only thing missing from all this smart analysis, great insight and perspective is Michael Schere jumping into the pool to claim how good last night was for John McCain.
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15.1
Well Fiorina is announcing today that she running for the republican nomination for Boxer's seat.
Does that count? -
15.2
Well okay. That proves it. Obama and is band of liberal DFH are toast. Republicans and blue dogs now rule the day.
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15.3
Of course, Fiorina has such a great record of job creation at Hewlett Packard. How can this woman possibly lose?
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Of course Carly isn't loved by all-
"A California Republican aiming to unseat Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) next year has gotten a boost from conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC).DeMint announced last night his Senate Conservative Fund was endorsing state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore over former Hewlett Packard chief Carly Fiorina....
Erick Erickson, editor of RedState.com, also appeared on the call and noted that DeVore served in the Reagan White House. He criticized Fiorina for backing the stimulus"
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Teabaggers, you have your orders. -
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Oh my goodness the Republicans lost by 2 points in a district that they should have dominated. They are doomed!
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Wait, didn't an incumbent Democrat just lose the governorship in NEW JERSEY?-
17.1
(Man, this commenting software is broken as h-e-double-hockey-sticks.)
Unfortunately for the incumbent Democrat in New Jersey, he had the words "Partner at Goldman-Sachs" on his resumé. It turns out that this is even worse than "George W. Bush-appointed US Attorney".
This year, anyway.
Besides, New Jersey (like Virginia) always puts a governor of the opposite party to the President into office the year after said President is elected. They've been doing that for a quarter-century.
Chris Christie is right on schedule.
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17.2
Tom in The Swa
I think Tom Kean puts a whole in your every third full more after n alien is elected to the 3rd Galaxy kind of theory.
Corzine a raving liberal lost in one of the bluest states because he was a lousy candidate.
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18
Great compilation of Fox News touting Hoffman before the election as a "game-changer" for the Tea Party activists.
Hilarious stuff. Fox News, Beck, Hannity, Rove and the rest of the clan were absolutely convinced that Hoffman was a sure thing.
And look at the smears of Scozzafava. Unrelenting. And rusty, spob and company want to claim the voters in NY-23 got screwed by Sozzafava!
Too damn funny. Hoffman was completely a tool of the big money interests behind the Tea Party and the Club for Growth. Those big money interests tried to shove a carpetbagger down the throats of local voters -- and were rejected.
Funniest part of video: Karl Rove predicting Hoffman victory even late last night before the race was called.
Pathetic. I though Rove was a genius?
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18.1
In case you missed it, Scozzafava, a local even by your definition, was the one who was firmly rejected. With good reason, too, as she wasn't picked with a primary. And she's not actually Republican.
You're just going to conjure your usual conservative demons all you want, though. Let's not talk about how Scozzafava endorsed Owens or how she was paid $900,000 in Republican money or how NY-23 voters can actually make intelligent decisions.
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18.2
Unfortunately for the incumbent Democrat in New Jersey, he had the words "Partner at Goldman-Sachs" on his resumé. It turns out that this is even worse than "George W. Bush-appointed US Attorney".
This year, anyway.
Besides, New Jersey (like Virginia) always puts a governor of the opposite party to the President into office the year after said President is elected. They've been doing that for a quarter-century.
Chris Christie is right on schedule.
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18.3
"or how NY-23 voters can actually make intelligent decisions."
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Glad you support the result yoshi. Surprised but glad. -
18.4
Listening to Rove was nearly as funny as listening to Peloser talking about "we won tonight".
There is not a more vacuous politician in Congress. Sarah Palin without the brains or the looks.
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18.5
Yes that silly Nancy.
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Speaker of the House picks up two seats and then says "we won".
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So "vacuous". -
18.6
"Sarah Palin without the brains or the looks."
I think you are describing a yam.
Or maybe a Willow.
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18.7
abdullah69: Was it your intention to make me choke on my coffee? Thanks for the first laugh of the morning.
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