Into Waziristan

"This is the offensive that the U.S. government was hoping for, made necessary by the surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past few weeks.'

It may have been made necessary by recent attacks but it looks like the residents knew it was coming.

"Tens of thousands civilians fled South Waziristan in the past few months in anticipation of fighting, moving in with relatives all over Pakistan."

I wonder if having things so telegraphed and going in with what the story said were too few troops has any meaning.

"What does this say about the Pakistani military's long-standing relationships with militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Haqqani Madrasa and Mullah Omar's Quetta shura?"

Not much. Le-T and others have known for decades that the military is playing a double game characterized by covert patronage and overt denial.

Does General Kayani believe he can walk the line between terrorist groups he likes and those he doesn't?

Isn't that what every country does, including the US?

Amen. Does the Pakistan military have more than the usual factions not uncommon to most armies and defense establishments? Yes, they have too many playing all sides.

[...] Time's Joe Klein writes: This is the offensive that the U.S. government was hoping for, made necessary by the surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past few weeks. As Jane Perlez notes, the Pakistani Army has tried this three times before and failed–but this time the stakes are higher, given the recent advances the Taliban have made. [...]

Hey Joe, aren't you conflating the Pakistani Military with ISI in your first question?

Now that the Pakistan has finally started the operation that the US wanted it to start all along, Obama has announced that he will come to a decision about his new afghan strategy 'soon'. Please, Mr. Obama, take your time. And watch while all the militants in South Waziristan eventually start going back across the border for shelter in Afghanistan. I'm sure once that happens the US will once again start telling Pakistan to 'do more'. This is the window of opportunity for US + NATO to create pressure on the Afghan side of the border neighboring South Waziristan, but nothing is being done because no decision has been reached upon yet by the US on what to do with Afghanistan, the oh-so necessary war. Doesnt the failure of the much touted Afghan strategy of nine months ago underscore the urgency needed in the matter this time round?
The Pakistani army has two disadvantages going into South Waziristan. One, the territory is severe and much well known to the Taliban and the Meshud tribe. Two, the militants supply lines are open on the Afghan side of the border, with what effectively amounts to zero NATO/US troops stopping them. Pakistan has 10 times more troops manning that border than US/NATO, but I guess once again the blame will fall on Pakistan, and we will be asked to do more by an administration looking to shift blame on anybody but itself. Because if this operation fails which it will if there is nobody stopping the militants from retreating into Afghanistan, then there will be only party to blame, and it won't be Pakistan. The major reason the two Waziristan operations failed previously was because Musharraf was in charge, a man bent on prolonging his rule by perpetuating his self made view that he was the only person stopping the taliban from taking over Pakistan completely. And when that happens, you just have to let militants blow stuff up sometimes just to make sure that your bank in Washington never forgets that there is only one person standing between US success and failure in Afghanistan.
Lastly, since when did the US not pick and choose the good militants from the bad ones?

Taking military pressure off gihadists in their home regions is not a good idea. Neither is a Vietnam-style escalation to prop up a corrupt regime. Vietnam proved that no amount of troops and firepower can save a government which does not have support of it's citizens. The only answer left is for NATO to be the harasser of the Taliban element, not the occupier of Afghanistan -- cool site; Balkingpoints ; awesome satellite view of earth

we will be asked to do more by an administration looking to shift blame on anybody but itself

Because of course we all remember that it was Obama who decreased the force levels in Afghanistan to divert them to Iraq. It certainly wouldn't do to actually consider history. The Obama Presidency is just like starting over!
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Wingnot lodic at its finest.....

Hey Joe, where you goin' with gun in your hand?

Sorry, I was listening to Hendrix and couldn't help myself.

I left out a "that". I must be tired.

fatman1 comment - October 17, 2009 is on the spot.
Joe Klein should not lecture Pakistan on the merits of choosing its enemies or friends. USA has always sided with those, it could do businees with.
Besides, people living in the tribal areas are Pakistani citizens and Pak army did not want to punish them in order to flush out the bad guys. That was the reason for the reluctance.
It is strange that USA, NATO and a large Afghan army with all the latest technology and fire power under their command could not handle few thousand Afghan Taliban but expects Pakistan to do exactly that.
Does not JK understand that Pakistanis have to live with its neighbours and take care of its population and it is not in its interest to do others dirty work.
Pakistan army should protect Pakistan and its citizens and USA should fight on the other side of the border.
That may do the trick.

Interesting:
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/health/18hospice.html?em
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Totally OT, of course. But interesting.

http://thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=89400

"Due to security forces advance, terrorists are vacating their posts area leaving behind arms and ammunition. "

Where are these terrorists retreating to? Closer to the Afghan border.
Who is going to stop them when they cross over into Afghanistan where the Pakistan Army can't chase them?
Nobody.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8313423.stm

Simply brilliant.

Why can't we just bring our troops home and cut off the aid to EVERYBODY, mind our own BUSINESS and let ALL these factions resolve their ow problems.

Surprise is one of important principles of war which Pakistani army decided not to abide with by launching the attack on terror land. They have been drumming the offensive beats for last one year thereby enabling criminal gangs escape to some other sanctuaries. Even if Pakis win and they win by design telling their western allies of their success in routing out the terrorists from Waziristan, they are bound to reappear at their next hide outs. Isn't an exercise to keep the terror alive in order to get next tranche of dollars in billions.

Out of Pipelinestan.

http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/05/11/the-gas-must-flow/

" .. This is the offensive that the U.S. government was hoping for, made necessary by the surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past few weeks .. "

Why does that tack sound familiar - phony, duplicitous? That's not because it come from Joseph Klein, is it?

Aha! The Israel government is never the aggressor: Israel only responds to attacks. The Pakistan government is merely responding to aggression.

For instance, the constant bombing attacks and killings of terrified village kids and women by Pakistan-USA's drones in that N Pakistan area over the past several months have nothing to do with "the surge of terrorist attacks in Pakistan over the past few weeks
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In accordance with our expectations of the Palestinians, the villagers of Waziristan are expected to live in terror, accept the slaughter, lay down and die silently. [Maybe those cave dwellers can borrow a civilized leaf from us: We, the Christians who turn the other cheek, meekly and humbly accommodated the 9/11 attacks - in prayer and blessings for the attackers . ...]

[...] Into Waziristan – Swampland – TIME.com [...]