Russian Autumn
There is probably less than meets the eye in substantive terms to the recent Russian intransigence on a sanctions regime for Iran. Vladimir Putin merely said that talk of additional sanctions was "premature"--and if the New York Times report cited in my post below can be credited, Putin is right.
But there's something else going on with the Russians, which may indicate a subtle but significant mistake the Obama Administration has made in dealing with the Russian leadership.
Which raises the question: who is the actual leader of Russia? Dmitri Medvedev has the title; Putin has the power, it seems. Are they on the same page? Well, perhaps not--they may run against each other for President in 2012, when Putin is eligible again. And there has been some sentiment within the State Department to exploit the rivalry between the two. If so, we may betting the wrong horse.
Medvedev has been the softer of the two. He made some encouraging remarks about the possibility of sanctions against Iran (then quickly backtracked). And most of the Obama Administration's personal contacts have been with him, not Putin. A good part of this is unavoidable--Obama and Medvedev keep on bumping into each other, and having bilateral talks, at meetings like the G-20 and the UN General Assembly. Putin may not be enjoying the back seat he has taken. And his absence from Moscow--and tougher comments--during Hillary Clinton's visit this week may be sending a signal: You need to talk to me.
An experienced diplomat told me yesterday that it might be wise for Obama to invite Putin to Washington soonest. He would have to invite Medvedev as well, lest the actual President feel dissed. But if progress is to be made with the Russians, it seems clear that the Administration is going to have to walk a delicate tightrope and remain on good terms with both their leaders.
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1
Goodness yes, perhaps he can look into Putin's eyes and see his soul.
Guess Russia needs two delegates to the G-20 and the UN, so when Obama goes he won't upset Putin.
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2
Look at this another way Joe. When our leaders and officials meet with their counterparts in India, Pakistan or Russia they are often advised to deal with the President, with key Senators and key Congresscritters when they come to the US. Our Senators have been known to throw their weight around in foreign capitals. Foreign leaders know that power is spread around the Village. So we should not be surprised when the same things happens in foreign capitals.
Jim de Mint is conducting his own foreign policy with Honduras.
Some time back we were having the same problems with China: Chairman Mao and the Premier. There are centers of power in most capitals and they have to be dealt with.
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3
I'll tell you who Obama's made a mistake with: The Europeans. Obama has spent too much time scratching the back of other countries, while neglecting America's civilized ancestors in Eruope.
Tell Obama it's time for him to stop focusing on Russia, job creation and the wars in Afghanistan and start focusing on what's really important: Keeping Europe happy.
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4
Who is the actual leader of Russia? I believe the best answer for this question is the words of one Russian poet, “Russia cannot be measured by a common yardstick, not understood by a common mind. In Russia you simply have to believe”.
In this case it's like two policemen the good and the bad one.
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5
Putin's bluffing, re Iranian nukes- he doesn't want a nuclear ME any more than we do.
But, he's wisely working the Boy Wonder like a poker player. He knows the Israelis will bomb Iran back to the Stone Age... he's just milking all sides for all he can get before he leaves Tehran to fend for themselves-
And he'll be wringing Obama for plenty more concessions along the way... these KGB guys know a mark when they see one.
God Help Us until 2012...
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6
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/10/another_rep_evacuates_j_street_1.asp
.
Somewhere Joe Klein's head is exploding . . . . -
7
I think this is a good example that demonstrates the difficulty of diplomacy done properly. That is to say, diplomacy, international relations, and statecraft are not supposed to be easy.
There will be a lot of bang-head-against the wall moments -- but it is important to remember that we sometimes have to travel down the dead ends before finding the solution.
This was portrayed somewhat negatively in the press -- Obama had set back with Russians! However, this is the process of diplomacy. Maybe now the Obama people have a better idea of the power situation in Russia as Klein seems to suggest, and we can move forward from here.
It really easy to make snap judgements -- "Medvedev is a patsy...", "We can't trust Putin because he is a KGB thug...", "Russia will never work with us on this topic because of there economic interests in Iran..." -- and it may be true that Putin is a KGB thug and Medvedev is a patsy, but nonetheless there are also potential interests to appeal to, differences to exploit, and -- as this is diplomacy -- games that have to be played.
People that see Putin's recent statements and say "See! Told you so..." are giving up too easily.
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8
How could the US be blind to the fact that the real leader of Russia is none other than Putin who has already made up his mind to be reelected as the next president?
Medvedev wants very much to be his real self and speak his mind, but the influence of his former mentor has been too strong, so much so that he seems to have lost his own direction now and then in international scenes.
Can Obama and Clinton match Putin's political acuity and smartness?
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