A blog about politics.

Freaked Out Freshmen

Yes, they're worried about seniors with paddle boards -- in a sense.

As Speaker Pelosi right now meets with her caucus for the second time today and the third time this week as members try to come to consensus on a health care bill, here's a story from this week's dead tree edition on what has so many of her freshmen and sophomores balking at passing a bill – any bill – right now.

Any bill would be dangerous for freshman Frank Kratovil – even one moderate enough to draw some G.O.P. support in the Senate. Kratovil -- who was famously hanged in effigy this summer -- won his seat in large part due to the endorsement of his predecessor: Republican Wayne Gilchrest who represented Maryland's First District for 18 years. Gilchrest was a moderate whose votes against the war in Iraq eventually led to a Club for Growth primary challenge that Gilchrest lost, despite his overwhelming popularity in the district (he won in 2004 with 76% and in 2006 with 67%). Many moderate Republicans, such as Bob Dempsey, 77, of Kennedyville, were turned off by ultra conservative views the GOP nominee, State Senator Andy Harris, who is running again. Kratovil's votes for the stimulus and the global warming bill didn't bother these moderates: Gilchrest was a ferocious environmentalist and Maryland already caps and trades carbon credits. But on health care they draw a bright line. "It's not one bill— it's combo of stimulus and climate and health care," says Stu Rothenberg, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks congressional races. "It's almost like three strikes and you're out. These are the kinds of bills that Republicans are gong to use against Democrats: that they're too liberal, big spenders, too close to Pelosi and Obama."

Indeed, the GOP has already run commercials in Kratovil's district along those lines. “The Obama/Pelosi plan would cut Medicare by $500 billion. Kratovil already votes with Pelosi 85% of the time, now what do you think he'll do?” says the announcer in one ominous sounding TV ad.

And with some seniors in the district, that message seems to be sticking.“If he votes for [health care reform], I'm not voting for him any more I can tell you that right now,” snarls Dempsey, at a Chestertown Fire Department dinner on Saturday where Kratovil was speaking. Dempsey crossed the aisle to vote for Kratovil in 2008 but is convinced that health care reform would mean big changes in his Medicare, which he likes. “If it's not broke, don't fix it,” Dempsey says, adding that many of his friends and seniors in the area have similar concerns.

One solution some Democrats are eyeing is to wait for the Senate to act and, if the bill is agreeable enough to all sides, pass that version: an option that has the added benefit of quickly wrapping up the process as it would avoid months of negotiations as the House and Senate merge their two versions. That scenario, though, risks losing the Progressive Caucus as it's unlikely that the final Senate bill will include a full public plan. I use the end of this quote in the dead tree version, but I think the full quote gives some good context: “A lot of Democrats came to me saying, ‘We need to get this done.' In other words, regardless of the bill we need to support it. I said, ‘No that's not right,'” Kratovil says. “Then I had folks on the right saying: ‘Don't vote for anything.' That's also not right. I can't support the House versions. But, in the end, I wouldn't rule out some compromise with the Senate.”

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  • 1

    Thanks, Jay. You rock. Any post that opens the door to an “Animal House” analogy gets highest kudos…as in Pelosi needing to deliver full strong public support / private discipline: “He can't do that to our pledges.” “That's right; only we can do that to our pledges.”

  • 2

    Let's get one thing straight, before we touch the rest of the piece, shall we?

    Any bill would be dangerous for freshman Frank Kratovil – even one moderate enough to draw some G.O.P. support in the Senate.

    A bill to construct one half of a bridge is not a "moderate" plan to get people from one side of the river to the other, it's a bill to construct one half of a bridge.
    .
    "Moderate" is not what "draws some G.O.P. support"
    .
    The bill to stop construction at the half-way point is what gets more support from people who don't want to build a bridge in the first place.

  • 3

    thank you stuart, for making my point for me, and doing so a LOT more politely than I ever would have....

  • 4

    There must be a quota for stories on imagined, right wing heroes on this site.

  • 5

    …so are the hedging Delta House members now on double secret probation?
    .
    Jay, even if Senate hearings don't do all-nighters as Baucus once “threatened” (bwahahaha), are their staffs up all night crunching numbers (and reading this blog?). Seriously, are you, KT, and KP literally tag-teaming or squatting in Congress 24-7 thru this? Hopefully you three can sneak home for naps and real food, or do your families and Amy bring tuna sandwiches and sangria to keep all of you alert? In any case, keep up the posts ...but do watch the House waffling. Compromising and selling us out aren't the same. Yes, this is Delta Tau Chi's problem, but please keep us updated on ALL their shenanigans so they don't become OUR problem, thanks.

  • 6

    Heh Swampland why don't you do just one story on a brave liberal, who is pushing for the public option against the pressure coming from the Blue Dogs, the insurance industry, and the media?

  • 7

    the crucial point here is that this Kratovil guy represents a district that should be Republican anyway --- Obama lost by a substantial margin in the district, and Kratovil barely managed to squeak through. The Dems are far better off ignoring the concerns of Democrats from predominately Republican districts, and focus their efforts on keeping their base energized in "swing" districts. Turnout is crucial in these swing districts, and unless the Democratic party base is willing to work to ensure that Democratic turnout is as strong as possible, those districts will likely turn Republican.
    _
    But JNS would prefer to highlight the problems that the Democratic party has with its DINO fringe rather than write about the Democrat's progressive/liberal majority.....

    • 7.1

      The Dems are far better off ignoring the concerns of Democrats from predominately Republican districts, and focus their efforts on keeping their base energized in "swing" districts.

      What's your impression of the genius astrophysicist Rahm Emanuel's view of that strategy?

    • 7.2

      I'm represented by nominal Blue Dog Ann Kirkpatrick in what is a 50/50 district. She has basically voted against the Dem agenda so far, yet the Republicans here are still going with the "Pelosi's lapdog" framing.
      I see her best shot of getting re-elected as being able to bring home a great health care plan; I don't know we have been polled, but I suspect the "public option" is popular here and we all know that is currently a proxy for real health care reform.
      I wager she doesn't believe that is how she is going to be re-elected. I think she believes that if she stabs Democrats in the back enough, the tea baggers will eventually give her credit for that and vote for her. I bet you two posters of Obama as a monkey and three equating Pelosi to Hitler that ain't gonna happen.

    • 7.3

      What's your impression of the genius astrophysicist Rahm Emanuel's view of that strategy?

      you're just trying to get be banned for using obscenity, aren't you stuart? ;)

  • 8

    Any so-called "moderate" or "blue dog" Democrats are TOAST in 2010.
    .
    You can count on that and put it in the bank. Healthcare....rather OBAMACARE will be the rallying cry for most all sane and rational American voters to vote them out of office.

  • 9

    "The Congressional Budget Office just said that a public option based on Medicare reimbursement rates would save the government hundreds of millions dollars in comparison to a public option that would have to individually negotiate reimbursement rates with medical providers. This goes against the Blue Dogs's so-called fiscal conservatism in opposing a robust public option. Here's more from this story below:

    The Congressional Budget Office dealt Blue Dogs a blow Thursday by notifying House Democrats that tethering a public option to Medicare reimbursement rates would save the government $110 billion more than a public option in which the government has to negotiate rates with doctors and other health care providers.

    The initial projections showed the difference between the two was $65 billion. But this shows it would cost the government a lot more money to heed moderate demands.

    House Democrats need to trim as much as $200 billion from a bill that most estimates peg at $1.1 trillion in order to meet President Obama's $900 billion target."

    CBO Tells Blue Dogs That The Public Option Will Save $$$$$

    • 9.1

      Everyone knows that you are supposed to ignore the CBO when it claims the unserious hippies on the left are going to save money.
      Just try it...I mean single payer is currently getting scored, so we all need practice in ignoring and/or deriding the CBO.

    • 9.2

      Thank you for this Derek, but if the Public Option does not pay a little more to doctors, will it not lose the AMA endorsement.?
      I think Waxman's bill was fine until the Blue Dogs change.
      .
      Does the house bill already include the close the donut hole? That would add another 100 billion.

    • 9.3

      Thanks Derek. I look forward to the headliner post about this.

    • 9.4

      I wouldn't hold my breath.

  • 10

    …Jay, a tiny grammar question: for effigies, is “hung” or “hanged” correct? I know “hanged” addresses executions and “hung” covers things like picture frames …but when done here as a *symbol* of evil behavior, which is it? (no snark, I really don't know). Back to complaining about blue dogs and republicans (there's a difference?)…. Thanks.

    • 10.1

      Back to complaining about blue dogs and republicans (there's a difference?)….

      Hmmmm. . . I thought we were the big tent party. . .

  • 11

    From Ryan Grim's new article about the Bush Dogs:

    Blue Dogs and others representing low-competition areas see the disparity as unjust and want the rates increased. The push for more government spending goes against their core priority of fiscal discipline, but Blue Dogs have never been known for their ideological coherence.

    http://is.gd/3DKzT
    I get the feeling that these guys mainly don't want to have to vote before the Senate votes. Anything else is available to the highest bidder.

  • 12

    ...House pledges aside, is Schumer going to bring up the public option tomorrow?

  • 13

    Awesome, Jay, another Republican talking point fest, right down to positioning things that gain Republican support as "moderate."

    Do you get your framing guidance from Frank Luntz, or from David Broder?

    Sigh.....one more time. Could you do a story on the fact that these concerns are unfounded and these seniors are being misled? Or how about how the Republican strategy is cynical misinformation? Or is it too difficult to work with the facts?

  • 14

    Fairly troll free thread (maybe it's Thursday). I'm likin' it...
    .
    What part of "The Congressional Elections of 1994" do the freshmen, sophomores, and Blue Dogs not understand?
    .
    The Dems failed to unite behind their first President in 12 years to pass a HCR bill. Hillary Clinton was demonized. The Dems were handed their a$$e$ on a plate with a side of hushpuppies.
    .
    In 2009, with Ms Clinton safely heading the State Department - surprise! - new demons are readily available. Brown ones, no less. And the Dems think they are safer shaking in their boots, soiling themselves as Rush, Beck and Cheney circle, thinking, "Keep still...their vision's based on movement..."
    .
    Pathetic.

    • 14.1

      "Keep still...their vision's based on movement..."

      Awesome, k-bang. Right to the point.

      It is amazing these people had the courage to run for public office.

  • 15

    Well, dollared, she is a reporter, and it's her job to report the faaahahahahahahahah!
    .
    I couldn't do it! I just can't force myself to say it's her job to report the facts with a straight face!

  • 16

    Every time the story is about the electoral consequences of a position on any issue, the essence of the story is this: members of Congress believe their own re-election is more important than the public good. I often feel I'd prefer election of a straight-shooting conservative Republican (if such a creature exists) to re-election of a Democrat who lacks the courage of his/her convictions.

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