The McChrystal Report
Today's Bob Woodward scoop regarding General Stanley McChrystal's report about the status of the war in Afghanistan is both unsurprising and provocative. McChrystal's assessment was about as expected. As I reported last week, McChrystal was bequeathed a flawed battle plan by his predecessor David McKiernan--too much chasing after bad guys, not enough protection of the Afghan population. McChrystal wants an unspecified number of additional troops to do the latter--that is, to focus on a counterinsurgency strategy.McChrystal's implicit emphasis is on Kandahar province, where Mullah Omar's Quetta Shura Taliban (QET) is most active and the struggle to secure Kandahar city and its suburbs looms as the greatest challenge. Also not surprising. What's missing is context: You could add 100,000 troops and the effort would be futile if the Afghan political mess is not resolved--and quickly. What's also missing is intelligence about the other side of the border: will the Pakistanis finally shut down the Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Taliban groups operating on the southeast border--to say nothing of Mullah Omar's shura (which the Pakistan military helped create and may still support).
What's provocative about the report is that it was leaked to Woodward--a serious breach of conduct by someone, possibly in the military (or a supporter the military's position). This was an effort to lobby a quick decision on troop strength--which the military wants, so that it can begin planning the 2010 fighting season in Afghanistan. But a quick decision is not a good idea right now.
The President needs to know what the next Afghan governmnet is going to look like--will there be a runoff between Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah? If Karzai still manages to score more than 50% after the phony ballots are tossed, will Abdullah and other Karzai opponents endorse the Karzai government? What sort of moves will Karzai make to restore some confidence in his government? Are the Canadians going to stay in Kandarhar Province, are the British going to stay in Helmand? Are the Dutch and Australians going to stay in Uruzgan?
Obama was absolutely right on the Sunday talk shows: troop levels aren't nearly as important as strategy. He has, at most, one more shot at getting this right. The military piece is only one part of the picture--but for many conservatives, like John McCain, it is the only piece that matters. That is a disastrously myopic way to look at an exceedingly complicated problem. Any attempts by the military, or their allies, to pressure a troop increase now are premature and misguided.
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1
How does John McCain plan to pay for this?
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1.1
With the money he saved America during his critical and delicate face-to-face negotiations over the TARP bailout, of course.
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2
What Joe doesn't bother to mention here is the "curious" leaking to Woodward of this report within minutes or hours of President Obama's public statements about Afghanistan troop levels. This is especially "curious" in that Woodward, & now we, got complete access to the unclassified report when through last week even the Congress did not.
The Constant Weader at http://www.RealityChex.com
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3
OK when do we "win"? And how do we know when we've "won"?
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3.1
Those are the strategy questions that Joe is talking about. They are fundamentally more important than the number of troops or even the amount of resources in equipment and money we put on the ground or in the air.
Anyone that doesn't get that has their cart before their horse. That sort of logic is what gets good people killed and leaves objectives blurry and unfulfilled.
It is often better to ask questions and then shoot or do both at the same time, but if we are asking questions later in Afghanistan it will be of the what went wrong variety.
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4
I fear for Obama, I really do. Whoever leaked this was exceedingly irresponsible, especially given Obama clear statements yesterday that he wanted to take time to choose the best (out of a load of bad choices, to be sure) strategy.
Is it too paranoid to think that this is the military industrial complex striking back so soon after the missile defense stuff? More troops = more money no? More contractors?
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4.1
A healthcare debacle, and now this? I'm sure glad that I am not in Obama's shoes right now. He is falling faster than a meteor from outer space.
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But, what could we expect from a "Community-in-Cheif Organizer"?
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We can only hope that Holder's persistence in seeking prosecution for the CIA does not allow a lapse in our security, and Terrorists enter the country to bomb the hell out of us.
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This is a sad day in America, very sad indeed. While his whole Administration implodes upon itself, he is cracking jokes with David Letterman. It truly does not make sense at all. -
4.2
I'd go for a Bush holdover personally.
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4.3
Rustydog:
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I believe that term of insult is supposed to be "Community Organizer-In-Chief". -
4.4
In response to your question: No, it is not too paranoid, even if it's untrue. Nearly everything in the world comes down to money.
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4.5
What could possibly be irresponsible for leaking this report to the public that 1) pays the bills, and 2) is endangered by the terrorism this war incites? What is irresponsible is that the report was not publicly released in the first place.
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5
OK when do we "win"? And how do we know when we've "won"?
Obama has just done a terrible job of communicating his administration's strategic goals in Afghanistan (I'm assuming that they exist).
I find this amazing since he owes his victory over Hillary to his prescient opposition to the AUMF. Clearly, having sound foreign policy judgment was a flaw that Obama could not allow to continue to exist if he wanted to maintain credibility among the Village intelligentsia.
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5.1
'Preciate the response. However, I wouldn't say BO beat HC solely on being 'right' on the war. Remember that the DNC's crazy nomination rules had a lot to do with it too...not to mention, dare I say, racial preference.
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5.2
I don't believe the word 'clearly' belongs in the middle of a missive that is anything but clear.
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What's amazing to me is that Bob Woodward allows himself to be used this way because of course, journalists have no requirements to consider the political fallout of their actions only the fallout of everyone else's actions.You want to sit in judgement of politicians but who is sitting in judgement of you -- certainly not yourselves. You talk about the motives behind the leak. And like you I can only imagine what dire straights we would be in if the McCain had some how won the election, we would be at war with everybody. Talk about rationing -- nylons anyone?If these people are not going to just be ignored, then at the very least no story that includes their position should be done without including a reminder that these are the same people plunged this nation into an unnecessary war and were in charge for eight years and broke the country -- when does the media tell them to sit down and shut up until they earn their way back to adult table?
The bottom line is that the media is no longer content with report the news, they want to make it -- whether it's the fox network promoting tea parties or Bob Woodward printing leaked info that he knows is for the sole purpose of trying to prevent this president from making a sound decision -- it's still trying to manipulate events and in my book that's news making not reporting. The media has continuously crossed a line of late and so far they have successfully managed to pump up the right wing at a time when they should have been so down there would have been no adversary to provide that precious media balance. The press has justified their interference through neglecting the other side's position and focusing on the right wing nuttery disproportionately and its appalling -- and frankly not their job. What we need in this country is a little star trek and an oath not to interfere as the prime directive.
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6.1
Dee, props for bring up the media making the news instead of just reporting it. However, journalism at its best (which was…?) often changes events / “makes the news” anyway. Think Watergate or Bethany McLean and Enron. If Woodstein hadn't exposed Watergate, what else would Nixon have gotten away with? Too bad Woodward may have forgotten this (in order to sell books or become a media starlet?). Now if we can push KT harder on HC coverage…. Also, don't forget that Star Trek's prime directive was a huge problem for the storyline. Yes, Kirk helped create it (“A Private Little War”) and constantly violated it. But if he didn't do so in “The Apple” the Enterprise would've been destroyed. Wouldn't simply appearing on another planet automatically be interfering? Only once did the natives ever hail the alien Kirk as a god just for showing up (“The Paradise Syndrome”).
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7
Rusty reminds me of a bedbug infestation. Although they are inconsequential and are of no use to no one, they somehow manage to stay around. Maybe you should have read Joe's earlier post on the Afghanistan war- Bush jr was told more troops, more money, delay elections in april of 08 but what did the decider do? Hand it to Obama to make all the decisions (oh sorry- he pushed back the elections). Pres Obama will go down as one of the best prez ever if he is able to make incremental corrections to the deep doo doo Bush jr got us in. Surplus to Deficit, two unfinanced wars, a flagellating economy...the only thing he didnt give him was swine flu
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7.1
You mean he DIDN'T?!?
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7.2
Well nflfoghorn Swine flu didnt appear till Bush left office- so he may sown the seeds but it didnt bloom till Obama got there- so on that one...Advantage Bush
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7.3
Pres Obama will go down as one of the best prez ever if he is able to make incremental corrections to the deep doo doo Bush jr got us in.
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You ALMOST make this sound plausible. It would if only Obama did not have all of his rubles bet on healthcare.
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But, if we are predicting here, which is all you are doing, Obama has on his hands an unbeatable foe. This is a land that has never, ever been conquered. A God-forsaken place that only the likes of Bin Laden would love. Someone who would rather hide in a cave than be part of the Human Race.
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With that said tstar, I do hope that Obama can pull this off. I will however remain very skeptical in the mean time. Simply put, Bush realized much too late that this was an un-winnable situation. Obama however bloviated how he would do a better job. Time will indeed tell. Unfortunately like George Will said a week or so ago, basically “it can't be won”. It is time to pull out. But, Obama would never do that for fear of seeming weak. He also shot himself in the foot last week cutting off the ground based missiles. Now he doesn't have a choice but to go at it like a mad-man.
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Bush simply let him have it. It is now Obama's War, and will forever be known as such. But, good try none-the-less.
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I won't say "I told you so" when it all comes crashing down around the "Community Organizer-in-Cheif's" ears. I just hope that we do not loose more American lives in the process.
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But by all means. Keep praying to Allah as I know you will with Obama, and perhaps he can pull it off and be known as the "best prez ever". -
7.4
I guess I'm supposed to counterattack rusty's vitriol here, but I deem it for the most part to be a waste of time and effort.
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I listened briefly to the Obama interview yesterday on CNN (State of the Union).. and was glad to hear Obama state that he was focused on strategy as opposed to numbers. It was a relief compared to the cowboy “ ride in on the horse--shoot in the streets” mentality from Cheney.
Now, let us see if Obama can pull it off. Let us see if politics does not derail the whole focus on “strategy” instead of numbers.No one can blame people like us who are now super cautious about great sounding plans- afterall, see what happened with “Death panels”.
Who would have thought it was so easy to scare people with the most foolish fears spred by one of the least qualified politicians in history, Palin.LM
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9
Rusty,
I can almost hear the feverish pitch in your voice. Your reference to the Holder and all that follows suggests you have watched series 7 of 24 too many times!
And...a healthcare debacle? The fact that he is going to get something passed; something that has eluded Presidents for generations, I think can hardly be called a debacle.
What is a debacle and a disgrace is the well of ignorant, dishonest and thinly veiled racist commentary spewed against someone who, for all his faults, seems to be a genuinely decent guy; a guy who, by all accounts, is trying to hold your country together by himself using only a thin ball of thread.
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9.1
Actually what you are sensing homer, is a gleeful giggle and optimism that Obama has taken on much more than he is capable of handling and it is falling apart.
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He is simply too stupid to realize it.
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Have you invested in Gold yet? If not, I would if I were you!!
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The assessment says that Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents "represent more than 2,500 of the 14,500 inmates in the increasingly overcrowded Afghan Corrections System," in which "[h]ardened, committed Islamists are indiscriminately mixed with petty criminals and sex offenders, and they are using the opportunity to radicalize and indoctrinate them."
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If this doesn't spell the writing on the wall, I do not know what does.
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Dire indeed. Where are the anti-War protesters when they really could do some good?-
10.1
The anti-war protestors, like me, protested the march to a totally stooopid war. Many of those protestors, like me, saw the need to do the job in Afghanistan right, as Bush promised he would then didn't.
The AfPak problem is a really difficult problem made immeasurably more difficult by the failures of the Bush admin. The public in Afghanistan was, actually and overwhelmingly, on our side for quite a long time as Bush dithered. That AfPak it remains a problem we must solve is clear if you put "islamic radicals" and "nuclear weapons" and "unstable government" all together in one sentence.
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10.2
What concerns me is why you are so invested in the failure of the president, given that you are not so much recounting his past failures ,as you are gleefully predicting his future.I can't help wondering what is in it for you, that this president must be seen to have failed before he has even begun. And I never used the term 'uppity'.
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10.3
What concerns me is why you are so invested in the failure of the president, given that you are not so much recounting his past failures ,as you are gleefully predicting his future.I can't help wondering what is in it for you, that this president must be seen to have failed before he has even begun. And I never used the term 'uppity'.
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I am not "invested" in his failure. Obama is doing that all on his own.
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And 'recounting his past failures', he has absolutely NO track record beside winning a Senate seat, and a Presidential election. That is his legacy to date. I guess you can pretty much say he has lost the healthcare issue, that is very clear.
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So far in my mind his record it is not very impressive. If you rely entirely on his record so far, then I would say he is not doing very well. Especially when he has to be on TeeVee almost 24/7 in order to garner support from his base.
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You are simply supporting him on what basis, theother? What proof do you have that shows Obama's abilities to "win in Afghanistan", that he "knows what decisions to make"? Wishful thinking perhaps?
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I said earlier, due to the potential lives to be lost, I hope he does make the right decisions. I am not optomistic that he will or can make them. He has shown so far in his decision making abilities to waffle, waiver and sometimes choose the exact opposite of what he claimed he would do in the past in his speeches. It does not show much confidence on his part in my opinion.
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[...] Joe Klein in Swampland: The President needs to know what the next Afghan governmnet is going to look like–will there be a runoff between Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah? If Karzai still manages to score more than 50% after the phony ballots are tossed, will Abdullah and other Karzai opponents endorse the Karzai government? What sort of moves will Karzai make to restore some confidence in his government? Are the Canadians going to stay in Kandarhar Province, are the British going to stay in Helmand? Are the Dutch and Australians going to stay in Uruzgan? [...]
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So, Rusty is apparently one of those Ron Paul/George Will followers, eh? Did you hear about the potential terror plot the govt nixed and arrested 3 men- wanna guesstimate where the guy was from and in which country did he trained at, at an al al-Qaeda camp- If you guessed Afghanistan/Pakistan-congratulations you have won a brain cell. I know people get tired of blaming Bush for things- but facts are a stubborn thing- and I do think, they have a liberal bias. If a certain "Decider" had read a certain briefing sutlely titled "Bin laden posed to attack U.S" maybe we would not have had to go to Afghanistan- but now that we are there- and Bush has allowed the hard war to drift so that he could "win" (whatever that means) the easy war- we are now as they say- Shi* out of luck. So do you keep the pressure on Al-qaeda and keep pressuring the Pakistanis to keep the pressure on -or do you leave and have the POTENTIAL of a terrorist threat emanating (either through Afghanis coming here or radicalizing an American citizen) either way- you are between a rock and hard place. While the top brass in the pentagon are gung ho on war aren't too concerned with the lives of the soldiers (else they would not have leaked the document)- Obama wants to take time and plan out the strategy (shocking- take time to think about something- who does that anymore). So perhaps, if this country were starting over I might have voten for Ron Paul (never Will- I loathe his bowties)..but its not. Ron Paul is someone who seems unwilling to bend his principles for what is required...and Obama is. Call it what you want- but I believe someone who can believe something on Tuesday and Thursday-regardless if a clusterf&^k happened on Wednesday- is not the person I want protecting me- The world is a fluid place and holding on the ideologies is not a good thing.
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The very idea of putting more troops on the ground, without knowing exactly what we want to accomplish is completely ridiculous and a terrible mistake.
And don't tell me "to win" is the objective.
What is it that the US - and not the US Military - want to accomplish in Afghanistan.
It's up to the President as the leader of our country to decide what the goal is. The military only plays the advisor role of depending on what's desired, what's needed to accomplish the objective.
If you had a failing business, would you just throw money at the problem without understanding what the issue really is, or what you business objective was???
No moron would ever start a business without knowing what the end objective is.
How much MORE VALUABLE our the troop's lives than freaking money???
Whoever leaked this memo was acting in GROSS insubordination and should be punished for not following the chain of command.
Before we put ANYMORE lives at risk, I want to know strategically and specifically what is the end goal, and what exactly defines "success" over in Afghanistan.
I AM SICK AND TIRED of hearing "to win it" as the objective.
FREAKING DEFINE WIN FOR ME!
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13.1
"I want to know strategically and specifically what is the end goal, and what exactly defines "success" over in Afghanistan."
http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2009/05/11/the-gas-must-flow/
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No problem is going to get solved until the destruction of the Pakistani Military mindset. A military that has a country and fancies itself as the ultimate ARmy of Allah is never going to give up quietly. Its need to be squeezed hard and if necessary by force. But neither Obama or anyone (McCain or whoever) has the necessary fortitude to make that call.
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Because someone somewhere finds it despicable and thought the public had the right to know. That person would be right.
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BO extends the Cuba embargo another year. Guess he couldn't juggle another ball/take on another headache. 4 media outlets didn't take him up on it (jury out on Univision). Just zzzzipped by the radar, didn't it?
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Gee, my first thought was that Obama leaked it to prep the public for a big troop deployment, which he will get to *after* he gets some kind of healthcare reform
I know Obama hasn't actually accomplished anything yet, but I'm optimistic that he's going to be a great president because he seems to have so much ballast. He's not panicking over this report and going to straight to congress, but I doubt he's ignoring it, either. He's right, there's no point sending more troops until there is a clear plan for using them to achieve something.
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To: All the writers above
From: Michael M. Norman, ED.D.
Minneapolis
Please remind us why, how, by whom and when we got into this mess call Afghanistan? Plus, who among you have a viable plan you are willing to abdicate your lives for as we commit more American and our allies' lives to a for now nondescript conclusion? How many of you have read the report the Russians wrote about their experiences in Afghanistan? What could we have learned from them, which would have helped us understand that the quicksands of Afghanistan's history loves to eat invading, big armies and much of Afghanistan is one big place where hubris, ignorance and misplaced patriotism meet their match at the hands of thousands of years of tribal traditions. It is easy to gamble with words, but how many of you are willing to gamble with the lives of others (your children perhaps) and your own? I grew up during Viet Nam and I have no love for body counts, do you?Finally, if we "win" in Afghanistan what do we win, for whom and for how long? When you have viable, valid and well tested answers to my questions, please forward them to Generals-- Petraeus and McCrystal. Please tell them how it is suppose to end.
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Joe, you raise a very good question, why was this report leaked. We still don't have an answer but my bet is the administration leaked it to somehow get the left energized again to support his Health Care plan.
Maybe the next question to ask is why 10 months after being elected is the president still thinking about his options when he had a very clear direction on the campaign trail. It must be the same reason, we needs the left energized to support his Health Care plan.
So maybe the final question is when are we going to apply the strategy that is right for the situation instead of searching for a strategy that will score political points with those needed for our presidents domestic agenda?
All good questions Joe.
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[...] Swampland, Joe Klein notes that the uncertainty of the situation in Afghanistan makes this a bad time for the president to be [...]
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I hope Obama can find a way out of this mess left for him by George Bush. Having said that, why does every article concerning Afghanistan put Pakistan right in the middle of all the problems that Afghanistan faces right now? It's not Pakistan's fault that Hamid Karzai won a disputed election. The Shura that you talk about are just an extension of what happened after the Soviets left Afghanistan. I do believe the US was more than happy to send all the Jihadis across the border to fight the God-less Soviets. And as for cross-border infiltration, Pakistan has ten times more troops manning their side of the border than NATO on the Afghani side. Also unlike NATO and the US, Pakistan is actually winning its war against the militants in Swat. And that South East border you talk about has militants financed by RAW which are the driving force behind the militancy. This is a fact confirmed by Christine Fair of RAND corp. The native Balochis have nothing whatsoever to do with unrest across the border. They are merely fighting for autonomy. But ofcourse when Pakistan accuses India of financing the militancy, nobody gives a damn, while India must be right about every single accusation leveled against Pakistan.
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The pakistanis are only going after some Taliban who challenged the Pakistanies. They have studiously avoided going after the Taliban who are causing problems in Afghanistan and are anti US.
you can follow the whole spectacle at
http://www.longwarjournal.org/
Just like it always got no 3 and no10 of Al Qaeda but never the No 1.
In the long quest for Pakistans dream of depth, its the Afghans who have suffered. All jihadi perversion is OK for the ISI as long as it benefits them.
Joe,
Regarding Karzai it looks like he outfoxed the US by having his shady brother make deals with the warlords.
The warlords delivered the votes. -
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[...] all sides of the political area: ABCNEWS, The Cable, Marc Lynch, The Atlantic Politics Channel, Swampland, New York Times, Salon, Guardian, msnbc.com, The Washington Independent, The Daily Dish, [...]
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24
I don't want to get personal but Joe, I gotta ask. When you're this far in the tank for the Obama Administration do you do get by on lung power, or do you need scuba gear?
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25
What is actually happening? Wasn't there already a change of strategy months ago?
In short, if the mission has been doomed to failure, why not just quit straight away?
Do not fight a futile or fruitless war. Leave the country, with dignity and humility, NOW.
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