Huckabee Wins Straw Poll. Does It Matter?
Not really. Or, even less than it usually means to win an unscientific poll of an incredibly small and relatively unrepresentative group of people. Yes, Mike Huckabee won the Values Voters Summit straw poll this weekend with 28% of the vote. But then again, he's been the frontrunner for Preferred Candidate of Religious Conservatives in 2012 since the moment the last election ended.
The strong performance of the former Arkansas governor--and, more relevant for this group, Baptist pastor--in the 2008 GOP primaries convinced many religious conservatives that Huckabee could be a real contender if given sufficient backing and resources. And no one else in the GOP orbit right now who comes close to winning their hearts and votes.Take the also-rans in the straw poll. Four other Republicans essentially shared second place with about 12% of the vote each: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin, and Mike Pence. Of the four, Palin should have been the most likely to challenge Huckabee's popularity with the religious crowd. But canceling appearances to speak to them--this was the third such time she's backed out of a major social conservative event--isn't endearing her to those voters. As for Romney, he's still a Mormon, which continues to limit the support he can attract from some evangelicals. And while both Pawlenty and Pence could someday become bigger stars, their vote totals in the straw poll seemed to be a function of showing up at the Summit.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of the straw poll is how few people participated. This is only the second time that the Values Voters Summit has held a straw poll (the first was in 2007), and we are still three years away from the next presidential election. Even so, the 597 votes cast represent only one-third of the total attendees at the gathering, and about one-tenth the number of votes in 2007. Many of those 2007 votes came from online donors, who were allowed to participate in the poll in addition to conference attendees who voted in-person; this year, voting was limited to attendees. But the number of people who voted in-person for Huckabee in 2007 is still greater than the total number of those who participated in this year's straw poll.
The upshot? Mike Huckabee is still the early favorite of religious conservatives if he runs in 2012, but not because 170 people put his name in a box at a straw poll.
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I guess one amusing thing is that while Fox accuses the mainstream media of ignoring the teabagger protests, Time actually takes seriously a small gathering of right wing religious extremists.
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Thanks, Amy. From these late posts, are you a night owl and NOT a morning person? Kudos if so. Back at your L'Shana Tova post a Huckabee fan posted the straw poll result so *naturally* I replied in jest asking if Huckabee drew the short straw requiring a '12 run (#11/11.1). I now officially retract my levity. I'm serious. If they really believe he's their guy, go for it, but the solid *appearance* of a United Religious Right, Inc.[tm] is finally going away since Palin and Romney have their own supporters. Once divided, the Right is toast in '12. I wonder though: in early '05, Obama wasn't a strong contender (yet) so for the R's, who could be the serious longshots? I was watching Gov. Huntsman before his appt. …and btw, I'm not seeing many screaming rants from other readers here yet but give it time; should change later today. I, however, once said here I would NOT to be rude to you, KT, and Jay.
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Also, Amy, thx for pointing out Romney's alleged “problem” – being a Mormon / Not Real Christian – even though they too worship God and Jesus, but I digress. Further proof of the Right's upcoming implosion. But how do the religious conservatives feel about Sarah's church, the witch doctor, etc.? (seriously) Thx also for earlier Newsweek “Christian America” link at your O'Reilly post. I've asked before (to crickets) whether these groups are REALLY following Christian beliefs given Jesus' advice to keep Caesar / God stuff separate. Have you addressed this before? What do YOU believe, Amy? Thanks, and sleep well.
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LATE BREAKING NEWS.....
Mike Huckabee and his energetic Fans will continue on their epic journey to bring America back up to higher ground. Thousands of fans from all over the nation are building the largest super network / Presidential team ever assembled in modern history.
Check it out, google: Huckabee Fan Club
The extremelly popular Huckabee TV show is rated # 1 in the world by Nielsen TV rankings, beating out MSNBC + CNN + Headline News all combined. Huckabee's daily ABC radio adress is broadcasted to millions.
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That's like saying you have more sand on your beach than any other one. In light of being habitually wrong, popularity doesn't impress.
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Another non-news article / blog from Amy Sullivan.
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Why even bother Amy?
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If ACORN was a religious organization, do you think you would report on that? Perhaps one of the hundreds of smaller entities of ACORN is indeed religious, maybe so if you would investigate it!!
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Just saying -
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@AS: Does It Matter?...Not really..
Well, that's a heck of an incentive to read further. Why was this post even written?
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Perhaps that LDS unpopularity thing trickled from Romney to the football field this past weekend (see BYU and Utah). Neither team has much of a shot at the BCS with one loss. (Yes, I know the BCS is unfair and probably illegal.)
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...well, Boise State is still hanging in there. It's fascinating that the BYU - Utah rivalry is called the "Holy War" given that BYU is LDS and Utah is secular (Amy would love this!). In-state rivalries, gotta love them...
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Far more interesting item from the straw poll is that opposition to gay marriage came in third in the important issues section at 7%. Last time the poll was done in 2007, it was first at 20%.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/gay-marriage-is-fading-as-values-focal.html
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Pretty soon values voters will be able to hold their "summit" in a walmart parking lot with so few participating why bother with renting a hall - the participants shown on video are retirement age, so the life-span of this "movement" is really limited.
Huckabee? Really? Now that's funny!!!
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[...] by the Family Research Council. While the 2012 election is, blissfully, a long ways off and some are skeptical about the meaning of his victory, I believe this portends the real potential and force of a 2012 [...]
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