Why August Does Not Matter
August has been bad for Barack Obama. No doubt about it. He has been stuck repeating the same talking points for a health plan that he can't get through Congress--largely because of dissent within his own party--while the media busies itself alternately covering the virulent, if contained, backlash to his proposal, and trying to cut through all the false claims about what health reform could mean. The guy who wanted to change the ways of Washington has found himself pinned down by the ways of Washington. But does any of it matter?
Not so much, so far. This week's new WSJ-NBC (pdf) poll shows very little movement from July to August on the issue of health reform.
Support for the broad sweep of what Obama has proposed went from 56 to 53 percent, within the margin of error. Support for a public health care plan also dropped only three points, from 46 to 43 percent. The percentage of people who said the Obama plan would result in better quality care rose, from 21 to 24 percent, while the percent saying it would get worse rose less, from 39 to 40 percent. Obama's own approval rating on health care was unchanged. The percentage of Americans saying reform would "lower costs and provide health care for all Americans" rose slightly from July, while the percentage saying it would "limit access to doctors and medical treatment options" declined slightly.
Perhaps most damning facts for the town hall barkers were these: 85 percent of Americans said they had seen, read or heard reports about protests at the town hall meetings. Of that group, 16 percent said the disruptions made them more favorable to the Obama plan, 19 percent said less favorable and 62 percent said all the hubbub "made no difference."
Now a big part of interpreting poll results is expectations. Via Twitter, Kevin Madden, a Republican consultant who worked for Mitt Romney, argues that the lack of poll movement is bad news for the president as it comes on the heals of a "huge public push." And the good people at Hot Air do their best to highlight other negative results from the poll. But the bottom line, on balance, is a wash. It can be read to either say that Obama and his foes are battling to a stalemate, or that Americans really don't care much what happens in August. I would guess the latter. As Andrew Card, the former White House chief of staff, once explained in another context, "From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August.''
What matters is what happens in September and through the fall. Will Obama get Republican support? (On this point, the right wing backlash, especially to the degree it impacts people like Sen. Chuck Grassley, matters a great deal.) Will he be able to pass meaningful reforms? (Including ones that liberals cheer, and industry lobbyists decry.) Will be be able to pass anything? By the time we learn the answers to these questions, the August excitement is likely to seem little more than a distant dream.
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1
What matters is what happens in September and through the fall. Will Obama get Republican support?
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Who cares!!!!
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You yourself were pointing out the silliness of the press in trying to squeeze stories out of non-events comprised of slight vocabulary changes surrounding an unchanged policy. Certainly you know that any drama surrounding 'Republican support' is equally manufactured.
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The Republicans have made clear that they'd oppose any Obama initiative, even if it involved cropdusting hundred dollar bills over every Red State in the Union.-
1.1
thank you.
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Scherer's incessant score-keeping in lieu of useful reporting is extremely irritating, and never moreso than when he insists upon using "Republican votes" as a metric for success. -
1.2
Exactly!
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2
Of course he will not get Republican support. The White House finally figured that out. And they should not seek GOP support since this same poll shows that just 21% approve of the GOPs handling of healthcare reform. The WH should take a page out of Barney Frank's book and stop trying to have conversations with dining room tables, esp. ones named Chuck Grassley.
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2.1
Well it would be a room full of furniture then since Bush got the same response from Demos. But I forget, Weiner Franks and the libs are superior beings
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3
August is silly season, a time for idle speculation.
it comes on the heals of a..
Magic Eight Ball says 'heels', not 'heals'.
Will Obama get Republican support?
Magic Eight Ball says, "Don't count on it."
Will he be able to pass meaningful reforms?
Magic Eight Ball says, "Reply hazy, try again."
Will be be able to pass anything?
Magic Eight Ball says 'he' not 'be', then replies, "Ask again later"
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3.1
Who woulda thought the silly season would be so potentially deadly...
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3.2
Oh crap - forgot to mention that, while Silly Season is in full bloom, people who lack insurance or are underinsured or have been wrongfully denied coverage are getting sick, going bankrupt, and dying...
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August matters for some people, Michael.
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4
Is the GOP trying to one-up Al Queda? Maybe GOP support does matter.
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Or else...
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http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1917356,00.html -
5
That's a good point. While Obama and the Democrats' popularity have taken a hit, the Republicans' has not gotten better. I also think the supposed free fall in Obama's numbers aren't much to be alarmed about yet. When you go from wildly popular to just popular...you're still popular.
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Who knows, maybe Obama could turn out to be the liberal version of Reagan, the "Teflon Man".-
5.1
This might become literally true, out of necessity.
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I heard that Teflon is a component in flak jackets... -
5.2
I also suspect that some of Obama's loss of approval is coming from his base. I know my letter to the WH wrt his equivocation on the public option was pretty strongly worded.
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5.3
That reminds me of something I was thinking about the other day. With the less moderate wings of both parties becoming increasingly vocal and important, do you think this will lead to less moderates in office?
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5.4
There are political moderates?
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I want to be careful to not lump progressives, who are arguing more or less rationally for healthcare reform, in with wingers who gleefully spread lies about pulling the plug on granny and tote assault rifles to the town halls. That's why I invoked Barney Frank initially. He correctly assessed that there was no point in trying to engage with the woman waving the Obama-as-Hitler sign. Chuck Grassley, by not strongly repudiating the death panel lie has shown that he deserves the same treatment. -
5.5
So you consider lower than Bush at his point in his term to be popular? Good to know
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6
Oh sorry, that was meant to be in reply to piero.
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7
"--largely because of dissent within his own party--"
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Yup, "Death Panels", accusations of Nazism, massive influx of money from Health Industry, and outright lies had nothing to do with it. Its all because of those pesky Democrats.
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If only he'd ignore the will of the people who elected him and Democratic majorities to the House and Senate, and make a bipartisan deal with the unpopular minority. Then it would have just sailed through system and we'd all have a neat new Heath Care Solution!
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If only it wasn't for those pesky Democrats...-
7.1
whimper whimper whine whine.
It is not the conservative Repubs that are leaving Obama but the moderates of both parties and independents who are now wetting their pants at what they have wrought.
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7.2
Hey freeper,
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The Republicans were never on board and never will be. The core attitude of what's left of the GOP is "if the Dems are for it, w'e're against it."
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Its also useful to note that the approval ratings for the GOP continue to drop and are much lower than the admittedly low approvals for Congressional Dems (though Obama is still in the 60s). The only pant's wetting that's happening is with the GOP as the realization dawns that they are now a deep south, radicalized minority. -
7.3
Hey Mo
The demos will vote on anything that spends money except National Defense
And in generic balloting Repubs +5 to Dumos
Mo no runs no hits only errors!
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8
Micheal:
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Why don't you, or one of the other pundits here take a risk and put up a blog on the dangers Obama now faces from these nutballs?
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Let's see what people have to say about it. C'mon!
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Take a chance!-
8.1
I really don't think he faces much danger. The carrying of arms is this way is perfectly legal and is being done for symbolic reasons. Plus most gun owners are responsible with their weapons, especially the type that pays attention to national politics. Though I can definitely see why one would feel uneasy about this.
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8.2
I see your point too, but, the operative word in your response is most...
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That is why I feel he faces a very, very considerable danger. Many of these people are operating on misconceptions, rumor, and outright lies designed to incite. Mix that with the set of gun owners who are legal, but not responsible, plus, the added burden on the Secret Service to protect him, I'd put the terrorism clock at 11:59 right now.
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I saw this immediately before and after the Oklahoma City bombing, and those people went underground. They didn't undergo a change of heart and they didn't change their affiliations... -
8.3
53_3, that's a good point. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that if guns were banned from these things it would just incite people further (though that's not necessarily a good reason against banning them). I am a proud gun owner and believer in the 2nd amendment (for example, I supported the push in Texas last year allowing CHL holders to carry on college campuses...before anyone says I'm crazy on that, do some research), but I sure as hell would NOT carry a gun, especially a non-concealed one, to an event with a high profile speaker. Guns shouldn't be carried just to make a point, all this does is make them look crazy (even if they aren't) and makes the Secret Service's job harder.
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It's kind of like the Confederate Flag issue to me. You can say it's about southern pride all you want, but you still look like an idiot. -
8.4
apollyon07 -I'm curious what exactly you think those "symbolic reasons" are.
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8.5
I seriously doubt that an Arab-American in a turban could get away with carrying a gun at one of these rallies.
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It would be an interesting experiment for the Daily Show or Michael Moore to do. -
8.6
Did you think that they went underground with the animal rights activits that blow up cars and buildings or hiding in Bill Ayers basement
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8.7
Actually, appoloyon07, I think you are right.
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I'm not trying to be facetious here when I say that risking death the way he is now is really the only way to go.
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I'm not against guns myself, but when you mix anger and guns together, it's a recipe for disaster.
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Look at it this way, if you are not on their side, a firearm can be quite intimidating. Let's hope we don't start seeing this as a tactic during elections.
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I apologize in advance to you and other moderates, but there really isn't much distance between the GOP and Al-Queda right now... -
8.8
Freetopissonyourself:
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The answer to that is no.
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However, it seems to me your peers are providing you with a lot of company when you worship Timothy McVeigh... -
8.9
FBI blogger training off to terrific start under Holder regime change, quiet riot may lead to fun POTUS impeachment...
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8.10
53_3
~
This comes strictly out of curiosity. Would you elaborate on your GOP, Al-Qaeda analogy? Is this more in the range with, say, FlownOver's 'political terrorists' caricature, which I might add, should be, I presume, 'rhetorical terrorists' given that most true terrorism is political in nature. What the GOP is doing is inducing terror by way of words, so 'rhetorical terrorism' would be more apt than 'political terrorism,' lest the GOP were bombing health-care town hall meetings in an effort to subdue reform. So, is your comparison more metaphorical in that the GOP seems to be inducing fear? Or are your allegations more serious?
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9
It appears that the upside of August is that the Grassleys & Kyls have shown their stripes, giving the Administration cover to throw up their hands & say, "We tried." The downside is that the Baucuses & Conrads have shown their stripes, too, & they're just an ever-so-slightly faded version of the Republican outfits -- not surprising, I suppose, since they all shop at the same store -- Lobbyland Deeppockets.
The Constant Weader at http://www.RealityChex.com
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11
"Will Obama get Republican support?"
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Are you really still asking that?
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republican whip Kyl --"I have no doubt that they can make it revenue neutral to find enough ways to tax the American people, but that doesn't mean the Republicans will support it," Kyl said.
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Ranking member of the Finance Comm. Grassley has been clear as he can be. He voted against SCHIP for goodness sake.
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If BHO clinging to that idea will continue to have him bargaining against himself.
..
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11.1
"Ranking member of the Finance Comm. Grassley has been clear as he can be. He voted against SCHIP for goodness sake.
Outside of National Defense IS there a spending program the Dems won't vote for?
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12
The problem is not Republican support, it is conservative Blue Dog Democrats and Independents. Obama lost all Republicans stupid enough to vote for him, shortly after taking office, when he choose to save the auto labor unions by bailouts to GM and Chrysler.
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Now with healthcare, Obama's primary advisors, adeptly named Dr Death E. Emanuel and his kid brother Dr Evil Rahm, they have run headlong into the most divisive social issue in the past 20 years.
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One only needs to read this non-partisan review of Obama's cheif advisor on Healthcare, Dr Death Ezekiel Emanuel.
http://defsi.typepad.com/deafening_silence/2009/08/under-the-skin-of-health-care-reform-dr-ezekiel-emanuel-in-his-own-words-pt-3.html
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Reading it, the elderly and those with a debilatating disease should be very worried that this man has been placed in a position of influence to a young, inexperienced and very naive President. Someone who should never have been placed in this position of power as President of the United States to begin with.
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Most sane people now realize that Obama's total lack of experience in most all areas puts us all in jeopardy. People now see what a mistake it was, and are voicing their concerns. This my friends is only the beginning.-
12.1
"Most sane people now realize that Obama's total lack of experience in most all areas puts us all in jeopardy. People now see what a mistake it was, and are voicing their concerns. This my friends is only the beginning."
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PRESIDENT OBAMA
Approval 60
Disapproval 36
Don't know 4
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CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:
Approval 10
Disapproval 76
Don't know 14
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The key phrase in Rusty's closing is "Most sane people..." -
12.2
momentomaury:
Selective poll reading results again.
Rasmussen daily tracking shows for Obama 51% approval/49% dispaproval within the margin of error so a virtual dead heat.
Congress lowest rating ever-- and who is now, and I use the word guardedly, leading Congress
Other polls also that the public is more skeptical about the porkulus plan, Cap & Tax as well as HCR. It is becoming clear that the sane don't reside at Hogworts with the loony left.
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12.3
Give Obama his due, he's always hoping, hoping to lose the next war, hoping to bust the new budget, hoping to kill any old American freedom.
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12.4
Funny you should mention Congress....
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CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:
Approval: 43
Disapproval: 51
Don't know: 6
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CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:
Approval: 10
Disapprove: 76
Don't know:14
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But keep huggin' that outlier of a Rasmussen poll close to your heart. After all, you're gonna be big winners in 2010! -
12.5
Wouldn't you just love to get the LINK to momento's poll numbers?
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I suppose when you simply make things up, even stupid people believe you. -
12.6
Al Queda speaks...
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13
[...] you can’t come back to that table and blame the Republicans again. (Perhaps the public is not much swayed by the town hall kerfuffles, but they were designed to sway [...]
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14
Reasoning by analogy must be the most abused form of argument in existence.
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15
"August Does Not Matter"
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Really?
In which suburb of Baghdad was that revealed?
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16
People seem only too willing to be manipulated by lies endlessly vomited by an ever-narrowing field of journalistic corporate interests. Threaten us with death and taxes, and we immediately heel -- very powerful for demagogues. Bring the threat of socialism in, and it is the final nail in the coffin of a reasonable idea. And need I mention abortion?
This is exactly how totalitarian regimes take hold.
http://evimedgroup.blogspot.com/2009/08/death-and-taxes.html
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17
For the REAL truth:
Gallop http://www.gallup.com/home.aspxApproval 51%
Disaproval 46%
This is a change of -1% for Approval and +1% for Disaproval.
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RasmussenApproval 51% Disaproval 49%, but yesterday it was Approval 49% Disaproval 51%
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You may want to read this momento. I believe it tells the entire story for Obama right now.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204683204574354383543314054.html-
17.1
@rusty
If you're going to quote Rasmussen numbers and link to a column by an AEI shill then I think it's fine if momento quotes numbers from a Research 2000 poll commissioned by Kos. And you're Gallup numbers are wrong - Obama is at 51-41 in Gallup today...yesterday he was at 52-42.
Better to look at the polling averages. Since RCP picks and chooses the polls they include (eg - they exclude the R2K poll), I'll go with Pollster.com - they include all polls.
Obama Approval:
+7.4
Obama Favorable:
+13.4
Party ID:
Dems +11.4 v. GOP; -6.5 v. indies
Generic Congressional Ballot:
GOP +1.2 (it's Dems +8.4 if you exclude Rasmussen but as I said, I'm going to include all of them)
Congressional approval is certainly in the pits but it is not at its record low.
These are certainly not great numbers for the Dems or for Obama but it certainly isn't all gloom and doom. Clinton was in much worse shape during his first year in office and he was re-elected.
Let's also remember that St. Ron had a rough first 2 years in the polls, mostly due to economic concerns...similar to what Obama is facing. And Reagan enjoyed an early uptick in his polls due to sympathy earned after the assassination attempt. By the start of 1982 he was below 50% and stayed there - even dropping below 40% for a bit - until early 1984, the same year he won a resounding re-election victory over Mondale. Most of the improvement in his numbers was due to the recession ending and the economy turning around. There are signs that this recession will be ending soon - much earlier than it did during Reagan's first administration - so Obama actually has more time than Reagan did to reap the benefits of an improved economy and turn his numbers around.
Finally, while the WSJ/NBC poll that just came out do show some concerning numbers for the Dems and Obama, the GOP polls just terrible on the healthcare question. Only 21% approve of the GOP's handling of healthcare, v. 62% who disapprove. That's just awful. Obama is at 41-47 (-6) on the issue - not good but much better than the GOP.
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17.2
Gonna whip out some stormfront stuff for us next? Eh, rusty?
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18
[...] of the actual legislation of the bill, and while there’s been a noticeable weakening of the president’s poll numbers and lowered expectations about health care reform in general, when the public is presented with the [...]
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