Sarah Palin Ascendant? Maybe. Still A Factor? You Betcha.
Gallup has new numbers out today, testing the 2012 GOP waters. Polls this early in an election cycle are in no way predictive of eventual results, but they are telling for other reasons. At the very least, we now know that Sarah Palin's up-and-quit spectacle of the last couple weeks has not hurt her much among GOP voters.
As the pollsters explain:
While Palin trails [Mitt] Romney in the current candidate preference test, she leads both him and [Mike] Huckabee in terms of their respective favorable ratings among Republicans. Currently, 72% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable opinion of Palin, compared with 56% for Romney and 59% for Huckabee. But her lead on this measure largely reflects the fact that she is better known than the two former governors, given the substantially lower "no opinion" figures for her.
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1
Well, if Obama is lucky, the GOP will choose Palin in 2012. As acts of self-euthanasia go, it would be messy, but entertaining.
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1.1
Republicans don't acknowledge your right to kill yourself.
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2
If her performance during the 08 election didn't adversely affect her polling among Republicans, why should they be expected to have developed critical faculties since then?
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2.1
Exactly. It appears you can't teach an old elephant new tricks.
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2.2
'It appears you can't teach an old elephant new tricks.'
Tricks they're good at. Its governing that they screw up.
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3
It's a long way politically speaking until the next election. Any poll numbers right now should be treated with a very large dose of skepticism.
Oh and agreed Will.-
3.1
A few weeks back, Jon Stewart aired a news clip from a poll taken mid-2007 in which...wait for it...Hillary edged ahead of Gulliani 53%-52% in a presidential match up.
How times change.
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4
Favorable doesn't mean "I'd vote for her for president." Levi Johnston has "favorable" opinions of our Sarah, and even he wouldn't vote for her for president.
She won't run for president as a Republican. She'd have to participate in debates, and she won't do that, will she. She'd get eaten alive, and then the "us" against "them" wouldn't be Republicans against everyone else.
So she'll start a third party, as some have suggested, so she can have complete control of her own nomination. This will go nowhere except to peel off some Republicans from an already depleted party. AKM at Mudflats explores this in a typically entertaining way. You can name her party!
http://www.themudflats.net/2009/07/15/palin-going-rogue-name-that-party/
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4.1
I'm not so sure. Republican debates are generally contests to see who can say "Reagan" most often. Even the Wasillbilly can handle that.
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5
How about the Sore And Plain party? SAP for short.
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6
Michael,
THANK YOU! I needed my Sarah Fix. Those other topics were dragging me down.Palin / Bachmann '12!
The White Choice…er, the Right Choice…wascily wabbits
(oh wait, social conservatives don't like non-white, non-straight, non-Christian, non-Americans? so THAT explains the Sotomayor hearing diatribes, oops) -
7
OT, but today's the 40th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 11. The Great Orange Satan has a "where were you" thread about this event (kinda like your "What's your favorite" postings, KT, with a like number of responses). The memory emotions are obviously strong there.
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Definitely a stroll down memory lane for a number of us.
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I see the video at the right. One of America's finest hours.-
7.1
Apollo ... *sigh* One of our last great accomplishments.
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7.2
This one deep threading is deeply bad design.
artpepper
this was not an achievement. It was a propaganda event.
No new science happened. Nothing was learned that couldn't have been learned with unmanned probes at a tenth of the cost. The fact they brought a camera along, at the cost of boosting anything from earth, and getting off the moon demonstrates this was about propaganda and PR and not science.
It worked, of course. The last time I prayed it was for the orbital mission (Apollo 10?). But in the event it was a stupid periodic expenditure of really talented people's life, as is the Shuttle.
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8
Sarah Palin the new Ralph Nader? Or is that Pat Paulson?
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9
We can put a man on the moon and invent Tang[tm] (good stuff) but we can't put a hot milfy wolf hunting rhetorician wearing $150k threads in the White House? (we nearly did but I digress)
But hopefully Kathy is right about third party. It might help split the fiscal / social conservative coalition…finally.
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10
"At the very least, we now know that Sarah Palin's up-and-quit spectacle of the last couple weeks has not hurt her much among GOP voters."
It's just fantastic, when you think about it. They went instantly ape sh*t over her when they knew absolutely nothing about her (other than the anti-liberal rhetoric, of course). Now that it's been shown that she's a corrupt, incompetent, thin-skinned ignoramus, they still love her just the same. If you wanted to construct a more perfect social science experiment on authoritarian following, I'm not sure you could.
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10.1
That's an excellent point. I wonder if Psychology Today would pick that up as an investigatory story.
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11
Wasn't there a poll that showed Palin is both the most popular and the least popular prospective candidate among Republicans?
If so, that could be good news for the rest of us, if it means the party is splitting along its natural fault lines.
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12
well, Sarah is one of principle...the Petra Principle
nice party titles per mudflats, campaign slogans next?Palin / Bachmann '12 - Country Cursed
– A Cause Greater Than Milf
– A Leader You Can Bereave In
– Yes We Like Totally Can Too Such As -
13
Does it say something about America's decline that we have moved from Apollo to a Palin?
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14
FLownOver. Hope that's not true. Huckabee seems determined to keep emphasizing how important it is to be "dependable," and Romney has got serious fangs. If he's in the race he'll devour her.
In fact, I think he may prove a thorn in the Democrats' side, so I'm optimistic that her supporters would get seriously po'd at Romney for challenging her.
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15
Romney will do whatever it takes to keep Palin out of the 2012 race. Could he be behind the rash of ethics complaints dogging Palin?
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16
It makes perfect sense. The GOP puppeteers see her quitting as a symbol of having no integrity or loyalty to the people she serves—an important attribute in any candidate they consider. All she needs to do is look and talk like someone people would 'want to have a beer with,' and they will take care of all that other complicated decision making stuff.
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17
I doubt she could attract the corporate megabucks that were thrown after George W. Bush. But...seems like some guy was known for raising an intimidating sum of money, $10-$20-$50 at a time. Wonder what ever happened to him?
I still think that the Republicans aren't crazy enough to nominate Palin. But it's not immediately evident to me that money will be a problem for her.
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18
From: Sarah Palin
To: Meg Stapletongue
Subject: Third PartyHey Meg,
ree: third party, thank you like so much for that sweet wonderful idea such as! Now if that's not let business grow and get government out of the way I don't know what is what I really was talking about though I threw two parties this week, one for Greta and for a matchmaking Bachelorette such as American Idle husband search thingy for Bristol since Levi's Outside now talking about me. Now I kneed a caterer for up coming SarahPac[tm] fun raiser. Whew! But I love this! My own political party! Anyone come up with a list for naming it? YAY! I'll make that the thyme for my event! Can we make this a mask arrayed ball? I LOVE to dress up, please call the RNC and get me some new clothes but remember I want whipped cream on my mocha so I had to go shoot a cow this morning to get the milk and froth it up myself and now I've got another ethics complaint that I'm flying the family, I mean, state helicopter too much. Can we sue any more blog hers over this? Thanks, you're so sweet, love you!Sarah
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18.1
This one gets my vote to win the thread.
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19
Well, after her latest antics she has endeared herself to me twenty times over. Of course twenty times zero is zero.
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20
I've said it before; her real trouble if she tries for national office again will come from the right, not the media, not the Democrats. Yes, the GOP base loves her. But the Republican elites have no use for her. And you have several extremely ambitious people who are desperate to be the Republican presidential nominee. They stepped aside for McCain. They will not step aside so easily for a hair-do with a cute wink. Romney, Huckabee et all, will tear her apart if she runs for President.
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21
I know a lot of dems who are praying that Palin not only runs, but that she becomes the gop's candidate. They think she would be an easy opponent to beat. I do too, but I don't want to see her as a candidate.
Risking the country's future on such an empty individual is irresponsible. It's like the global warming deniers that are willing to take a risk with the future of the human race to get their way.
Although it's unlikely that Palin could win a race under normal circumstances, unexpected things could happen. An unexpected event or a successful swift-boat style smear could conceivably land her in the White House.
I'm not willing to risk the future of the country to stack the elective deck in favor of the dems. I'd much rather see the gopers nominate an adult (who I will almost certainly vote against).
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21.1
good point. I remember when we were excited because the Republicans nominated Reagan.
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22
Matt: That would be a surprise to me. (Also, I couldn't find what you were referring to on political buzz. Can you copy/paste?) Lots of them were initiated during the fall campaign, and Mudflats seems to know most of the initiators. Alaska's got some wild politics, and it sure doesn't take anybody from outside to dream these up. Besides, some are legitimate, and she's wrong to say she's "won" all of them.
This is the nub of the latest, courtesy mudflats.com.
“We've been had,” says Andrée McLeod. [registered republican] “Sarah Palin failed to preserve, protect and safeguard the office of the governor for selfish reasons and the State of Alaska and Alaskans were left vulnerable and exposed.”
Signed and completed official travel documents show that upon being summoned by the McCain campaign on August 27th Sarah Palin wrote “Conclusion of state business” for that day and flew off to places unknown. After her failed bid, similar documents state “Return to duty status”. However, payroll documents show Palin continued to receive her $125,000 governor's salary and benefited by using state funded staff on the campaign for ‘state business' while knowing she was off duty.
“By signing these documents Sarah Palin knew she temporarily quit as governor to campaign for VP full-time; but by pocketing her salary Palin deceivingly used her official position and state staff for partisan political purposes to garner votes.”
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23
Just read Tim F.'s take on Palin's popularity among the faithful:
You know, having Sarah (I – AK for Palin) siphon off the votes of, well, anyone who would still vote for Sarah Palin strikes me as an aggregate win for everyone else. If I was a non-fruitcake Republican (assuming those still exist in the wild) I'd feel pretty good if I could stop pandering to those drooling idiots.
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23.1
Jay Rosen says the incoherence is a feature, not a bug.Her inability to speak in any kind of clear way is endearing to her supporters. It's like Wallace's pointyhead liberal talk. She really is one of them, they know it, and they bond. An incoherent interview, a brainless article reinforces that she is not part of the elite.
Gabba Gabba Hey!
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24
'Now that it's been shown that she's a corrupt, incompetent, thin-skinned ignoramus, they still love her just the same. If you wanted to construct a more perfect social science experiment on authoritarian following, I'm not sure you could.'
Good point. It would be an interesting experiment indeed.
I think a lot of her followers see a bit of Ann Coulter in her. Although that disgusts most people, Coulter and her ilk are very popular with the extremists.
Like Coulter, Palin is willing to launch vicious, dishonest attacks against her opponents and she's willing to lie shamelessly. Also like Coulter, she can dish it out but she can't take it. She descends into self-pity and whining if anyone criticizes her. Finally, like most right wingers, she never admits error. Fortunately or unfortunately, she's just not as smart as Coulter is.
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25
How is it possible to have higher favorabilities based on greater name id but trail on candidate preference and that not be bad news? If voters know her better, like her better but still choose Romney over her than how that's a problem -- unless of course you're using some sort of new Palin math.
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