Iran Update

Any sort of optimism based on these straws in the wind would be foolish. But it does seem that the dust is still settling in Iran, the possibility of dissent still exists--although the probability of the dissenters having much impact seems to be in the nil to microscopic zone.

Of course predicting anything regarding Iran is a rather tricky business but are you certain of this Joe? The cracks are still there and exposed, the Khamanei faction hasn't even made a single move to cover them up yet, all they have done is stamp down harder and harder. It may turn into a long slow boil but I don't see any signs the opposition has given up yet. I'd say the next really telling event will be Ahmadinejad's inauguration. I get the feeling that will be another round of riots as the Iranians are forced to accept a leader they may or may not have chosen.

Is it possible Joe that any assessment that the movement is likely over is based on making a comparison of factors that resulted in change the last time around. Unfortunately, conventional wisdom has an unnerving habit of basing everything on the last iteration and while the past can be a good indicator of future behavior, we have to leave room for people to learn lessons from history and choose to conduct things differently. You have to admit that's why pundits were wrong so often in the 2008 election.

How about a speech from Rafsanjani calling for a return to the principles of the revolution, which Ahmadinejad and Khameni are violating.

Joe, a reader on Andrew Sullivan's site reports that the Dish is blocked in Iran. Do you know if Iranians are still able to get Time and Swampland?

on Friday when Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani delivers the sermon at Friday Prayers he should invite all to accept the result of the election and all to support President elect Dr Mahmoud Ahmadinajad.
Rule of law separates good citizen from a terrorist or lawbreaker in any society. Iran is no different
Khatami and Mossavi are losers, they need to grow up and learn how to be gracious and bow out and not to disgrace themselves any further.
it certainly is a golden opportunity for Rafsanjani to redeem himself.

[...] TIME magazine Share and [...]

Joe, Andrew Sullivan is not unaffiliated; he's hosted by The Atlantic. Do Iranian authorities block the whole Atlantic? If so, it would be because of the Daily Dish.
My guess is that the key point is not "affiliated or not," but Andrew's conversion of The Dish into one of the top handful of news conduits for the uprising in Iran.

Ditto the 'admire your courage' sentiment.

It's fascinating to watch a nation with such ominous demographics (half the population under 30!).

In addition, if it is true that the literacy rates have jumped from around 56% in 1979 to around 82% today, then it's inevitable that there will be huge social changes in Iran. The way that expresses itself politically will be interesting to watch; so far, it's been inspiring.

[...] There’s lots of speculation about what Rafsanjani might say. One Iranian friend said, “It’s the speech of his life, a chance to redeem his career. He must call for the rejection of the election results.” [...]

[...] There’s lots of speculation about what Rafsanjani might say. One Iranian friend said, “It’s the speech of his life, a chance to redeem his career. He must call for the rejection of the election results.” [...]

[...] this sermon will be carefully listened and analyzed for any political messages. This could be the most important moment in his political career. Indeed, from a strategic perspective, this presents an opportunity for “redemption” [...]

[...] There’s lots of speculation about what Rafsanjani might say. One Iranian friend said, “It’s the speech of his life, a chance to redeem his career. He must call for the rejection of the election results.” [...]