Where Unemployment Puts Obama Politically
Walter Shapiro, over at Politics Daily, clearly summarizes the political situation President Obama inhabits, now that the vertiginous economic collapse seems to have slowed, and the long period of economic agony has begun, with continued job losses projected for many months to come. The president still needs to buy himself time with a lot of that commodity he turned into a political brand: hope.
In politics, though, it is hard to get reelected on the slogan, "It Could Have Been So Much Worse." No president can face increasing jobless numbers and say cheerily, "The good news is that it's only a terrible recession – and someday we'll be over it." That is why the true test of Obama's electoral mandate is how successfully he weathers the economic doldrums that now seem likely to last until the 2010 congressional campaign season begins in earnest. How long will voters continue to believe that America is on the "right track"?But hope (both in politics and in everyday life) is a quality that defies neat statistical analysis. In 1932, in the depths of the Depression, Franklin Roosevelt's campaign song was not the mournful "Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?" but the effervescent "Happy Days Are Here Again." There was nothing happy about bread lines – and the voters knew it. But part of the art of political leadership is the ability to buy yourself time. That will be the challenge facing Obama as the unemployment rate heads for regions unseen since the days of FDR.
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Perhaps these guys shouldn't have offered rosy assessments of where things would be with the "stimulus" to cramdown a bill filled with liberal wishlists.
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When you write op-eds like Obama did on February 5, 2009 in WaPo, people tend to hold you to predictions. It probably would be bad form of the press to ask why funding ACORN to the tune of $6BB was so important. -
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http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf
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Figure 1 contains their predictions.
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Here's Obama's WaPo editorial:
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/04/AR2009020403174.html?hpid=opinionsbox1 -
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And of course there's this from Obama--that the "stimulus" has done its job.
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http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/07/023949.php
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Perhaps, just perhaps, that bon mot by the sainted one should be in some coverage. -
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Unemployment has risen steadily since Obama took office, but he didn't do that. It is over 9% now, I think, more than ever in my lifetime, and I am a baby boomer. During the height of the great depression is was about 25%.
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The pigs that caused it all are sitting on money, now as then. The government stimulus can only do so much, it takes individual investment to get things moving again. -
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These FDR and Depression analogies are starting to get annoying because they aren't at all accurate. Non financial corporations are in far better shape balance sheet wise than they were during the Depression. The umemployment rate, though uncomfortably high, isn't headed towards FDR levels, it might not even head towards 1970s levels and we're currently at levels... sheesh... seen under Reagan.
Melodramtic much, Shapiro?
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destor, you are right. Partly. Real money and real investment still exists. Financial institutions are chugging along gouging the consumer more than ever. But, we have passed 70s levels of economic disruption. Can't really compare that to this.
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"The president still needs to buy himself time with a lot of that commodity he turned into a political brand: hope."
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What Obama needs is for the right-wing liars, propagandists and other assh*les who cheer led us into this disaster to STFU so that the lazy intellectual midgets who report the news can stop asking whether this has anything to do with Obama. Normal recessions take a couple of years for labor markets to rebound and this is anything but a normal recession. -
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Michael-Let's say Obama had did nothing. Would it be even worse right now? What if the republicans and spineless democrats had not conspired to water the stimulus package down so much. Would it be slightly better? Have you even considered these questions?
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Look at your local government regarding the stimulus and job growth. Where I live the first infrastructure project to be funded just got approved. It's estimated at around half a million and will create 75 jobs. It will be followed by hundreds more projects that are currently going through the review process. These things take time to do correctly. If they if the money was flowing any faster I'd wonder about accountability.
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11
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Have you even considered these questions?
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I don't believe M.S. considers those questions part of his job description. He's competing with Politico, aka Drudge 2.0.
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What I find particularly ironic is that because my economic understanding is actually grounded in the rules of thermodynamics which among other things, teaches that you can't get something for nothing, I'm actually open to arguments that suggest that I should worry about the defecit more and that the stimulus might be misplaced. Except that the utter dishonestly and general boorishness of the people who make such arguments makes me quite inclined to write off any contribution they might care to bring to the subject.
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Add to that the undeniable fact that following the Conservative prescription is pretty much exactly how we got INTO this mess, and I'd say that choosing who to trust is at least as important as deciding on any particular course of action. -
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FJ: "The government stimulus can only do so much, it takes individual investment to get things moving again."
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THANK. YOU. -
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I agree with FJ's assessment too. That isn't to say, though, that I'm with the crowd that thinks 100 plus days is enough time before one starts screaming "Fire!".
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The "instant gratitude" buffs need to realize two things, and this includes Mikey:
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1. You have never lived through a period of time where economic growth has significantly slowed. It has totally mangled your collective priorities!
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2. Instant gratitude, by and of itself, is a dead-end habit, without a future. -
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OT, but I've decided to drop this one here, as no Sanford threads are alive, which is where I would normally drop unrelated stuff:
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1908194,00.html
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WARNING!
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If you are at the moment consuming anything, stop, take an antinausea pill, then read this article by Joel Stein.
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WARNING!
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Ok, now, tiptoeing along the fine line between alternative health, cannabalism and fadism, where is this going?
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Let me hope, sincerely, that we are not, as rational beings, going to pursue this one.
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As a father, who was always there for my wife when my kids were born, the "item" in question is...
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