Iran Elections

".. a familiar and implacable foe that now also has a legitimacy problem. .."
"legitimacy" is often in the eyes of the beholder, so it is said. Are the elected leaders of China 'legitimate'? Former USSR? Saddam's Iraq? Venezuela? Cuba? The Sundanistas?

" .. In (nuclear-armed) Israel, which has reserved the option of a military strike on Iran, .. officials said Mr. Ahmadinejad's victory dramatized .. the need for a tough response. .."

Belligerent Israel dramatizes .. the need for a tough response. Our uppity ward, Israel, does not wish to co-exist peacefully with its neighbors. A nuclear-armed Israel is a threat to other countries in the region and a threat to world peace.
Sanctions for North Korea. Sanctions for Israel.

So now what?
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You deal with what you have, not what you hoped to have had. What happens next will be a defining moment of the Obama administration. The arrogant, naive Bush administration thought they could somehow will Hamas out of power after they won their elections. Hopefully Obama will recognize that there is next to nothing he an do to revert the win of Ahmadinejad. Trying to delegitimize his victory will only unite the country against us.
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Our best option is to use these divisions to remind Iran that a large section of their population strongly desires reform, and that ignoring the voice of the reformist will only cause more instability in their country. Force Ahmadinejad and Khomeni to confront that reality, and I guarantee you Iran will see change in the near future.

The problem is that it strongly looks like the election was rigged. The Ahmadinejad "win" was orchestrated by the state, not the people. Maybe.

Sean-
How so? What evidence is there of this besides allegations by the losing faction? We cannot continue this rhetorical de-legitimization of Ahmadinejad, as Nathan said. It bolsters his support with Iran, and encourages belligerent Israel in its nonsensical warmongering intentions.

Reposted from earlier:
As an Iranian-American, I am utterly frustrated with the lack of understanding by Western journalists of the Iranian political system. It's not as confusing as you all make it sound and you are all so very inaccurate and misdirected.
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For starters, please read the Iranian constitution, which does not grant the President the penultimate power to direct foreign OR domestic policy or to authorize a strike on any country, even Israel. This is a power granted to one man, the SUPREME F'ING LEADER, Ali Khamenei, and his Guardian Council of aging Mullahs (don't get this confused with the 70s band of the same name). The constitution is available in English here: http://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/ir00000_.html
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So, while the media looks for the President of Iran to change, they should be really looking for a change only in the Mullahs' policies. Stop misinforming the people! And Karen, Joe, I am not singling you out, but rather reaching out to you because I find that you're of the more intelligent reporters out there. Please grab your colleagues by the ears and make them listen to reason. THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT = THE US WHITEHOUSE SPOKESMAN AND NOTHING MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also, please don't get confused. Mousavi supporters are not protesting on his behalf but for their civic freedoms. All of Iran 100% backs the government in its legal and peaceful enrichment of nuclear technology. Let's open up Dimona to nuclear inspectors, and then Israel can open its filthy mouth.

Neorationalist, there is a great deal of evidence, not least the bizarrely smooth vote tallies, that this election was stolen. Juan Cole has a characteristically well-informed and insightful post on this. See also Andrew Sullivan's blog-- he's all over this today.
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persianadvocate, you're right, of course, that the Iranian president doesn't have much power. But the people of Iran sure seem to care about this election's results.

Sean DeCoursey forgot his password: The problem is that it strongly looks like the election was rigged.
Such accusations have surfaced in our USA's presidential elections, as well as in the state and local elections. So?

" .. The Ahmadinejad "win" was orchestrated by the state, not the people
The people voted - in record numbers. Should we assume that we know what you mean by "orchestrated"? Civic elections in USA are 'managed' by local, state and federal agencies that also declare the winners. Is that what you mean by orchestration?
[But we appreciate the psyche war: You would declare our killing of THEIR civilians as unavoidable "collateral damage" while their killing of OUR civilians is an willful, unmitigated "crime against humanity"]

What can the US do about this? I'd think that shutting the hell up wouldn't be a bad short-term strategy.

Well, congratulations to Daniel Pipes. He got what he wanted, at least.

nathan7777: " .. So now what?... use these divisions to remind Iran that a large section of their population strongly desires reform, .."

Suppose we are sincere in our desire to spread American values and for the world to perceive us the epitome of the best that can be.
We would viciously sanction any foreign agent who uses any perceived divisions in our society - and colludes with the disgruntled elements to undermine our order of things, right?

Put the country on the terrorist list even.

And we - that is the government and the people - would move forcefully against seditious/treasonous elements in our citizenry who connive with foreigners and foreign subversive agencies to destabilize our lawful system of government and bring harm to our people.

Right?

How would our limbaughs, hannitys, oreillys and newts frame our assault on the unpatriotic, subversive elements? [Protect our republic from all enemies within and/or without, eh?]

Elvis,
I agree and many members of my family are amongst the protesters. My cousin was hit in the head by a baton and rescued by the mob. But, one thing everyone should understand is that this is not about the nuclear program or foreign policy issues but the domestic struggle of the educated class to earn their civic freedoms.
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In this way, the Mousavi rallies were not rallies for Mir-Hussein Mousavi, the reform candidate hand chosen by the untrusted Guardian Council, but for greater freedoms for women and men alike. The people are rioting because they chose the path of peaceful reform only to see their hopes squashed. I analogize this thirst for freedom to a hungry wild animal kept in captivity. The animal will simply whimper until it dies if you never let it smell or taste food in any fashion. However, if you waft in the scent of a fresh meal and then take it away, the animal will simply go berserk. In the same way, the Iranians tasted some freedoms during the rallies and had their hopes set on a brighter future. This hope was snuffed by the apparent outcome of the election.
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The Mullahs may have created a tidal wave they cannot stop.

Karen Tumulty: " ..Paging Katherine Harris. Your presence urgently needed in Tehran. .."
She may not find pregnant shards there.

BTW, Do they have cold sodas in Tehran?

@cfukara, yes, they even have a fake Baskin Robbins by the same exact name lol

persianadvocate: " .. Also, please don't get confused. Mousavi supporters are not protesting on his behalf but for their civic freedoms. .."
I have no doubt that you believe that.
Now, didn't they listen to the speech in Cairo where they were cautioned to denounce all violence and pursue change onl;y through peaceful means? Now, why are they rioting and breaking things? Who doesn't get it - our POTUS or these violent, criminal Mousavi elements?
It may be said that their destructive violent acts (and their propensity to engage in undemocratic, anti-social behavior) de-legitimizes - and criminalizes - them, their organization and their violence-embracing unpatriotic flagbearer Mousavi.

" .. we - that is the government and the people - would move forcefully against seditious/treasonous elements in our citizenry who connive with foreigners and foreign subversive agencies ... "

For completeness, we should modify that statement to:
".. move forcefully against seditious/treasonous elements in our citizenry who connive with foreigners and foreign subversive agencies - with the de facto exception of Jewish-Americans and Israel - .."

Why the apparent exception? Most Americans - and our finest constitutional scholars - do not have a firm clue and are afraid to ask.

cfuk,
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What the heII man? How exactly do you know what's going on in Iran better than a guy who's from there and who's family is actively engaged in these activities?
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You remind of a chick I met in a bar when I got back from Iraq who decided to enlighten me about what was REALLY happening in that country, since have just spent 15 months there and not sharing her opinions I was obviously mistaken.
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The world doesn't conform to your views of reality. It conforms to reality itself. Seriously dude, you just wrote one of the dumbest and most absurd things I've ever read on the internet. Which is kinda saying a lot.

Cfuk,
They voted for peaceful reforms. The election was stolen in the most amateur of ways as any idiot can point out. This is the result. They are in no way criminal.
Thank you, Sean. Very well said.

KT,
Instead of making appalling jokes about the situation which already has seen more than 100 deaths and promises to get much worse in the coming hours, you might consider trying to reach your colleague Joe Klein, who is apparently in the vicinity and update us on his safety, and even his eyewitness account, if available.

They voted for peaceful reforms. The election was stolen in the most amateur of ways as any idiot can point out. This is the result. They are in no way criminal.
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I wish you and your family well PA. Revolutions have been started (as you yourself are well aware!) when the will of the people has been subverted to a degree as may have happened in Iran. Again, right now the news reports are sketchy, but there does seem to be at the very least strong anecdotal evidence that something fishy is going on. I have no idea how much the mullahs will bow to internal pressure but if it can be shown that the results are indeed fraudulent can the Supreme Leader overturn the results? This is an honest question as I do not know the exact powers of the Guardian Council when it comes to presidential elections in Iran. Please stay safe during this interesting time.

If nothing else, this illustrates why the oversimplification implicit when we refer to 'Iran' in the singular can have tragic consequenses. If we or Israel were to attack, we can be confident that 40% of our victims would actually be potential allies - until such time as the explosions start at which point everyone would unite against the attacker.

If we or Israel were to attack, we can be confident that 40% of our victims would actually be potential allies - until such time as the explosions start at which point everyone would unite against the attacker.
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If I were Obama I would be on the phone with Netanyahu right now telling him to keep his big mouth SHUT. Anything Israel does right now could have very disastrous consequences for the region. And we need to stay out of it period. A hands-off approach right now is the best course for our relations with them no matter how ugly it gets. Iran is nervous enough being flanked on two sides, the last thing we need to be doing is flaring up their paranoia and possibly triggering a major backlash that will descend the region into a war that we can't contain and will be VERY bad for all considered.

Yutsano-
And we need to stay out of it period.
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I disagree. I think we need to be involved, but in the capacity of aggressively warning Israel that its actions will have consequences, not only from its neighbors, from Iran, and from Europe, but from the Unites States as well, for once. We need to start making demands linked with concrete timetables and repercussions. We have such considerable bargaining power over them with the military and economic aid we provide, intelligence, veto power at the UN Security Council, and military support. We certainly have the tools to reign in Israel within the boundaries of acceptable internationally condoned behavior. Its certainly not an unreasonable request, scratch that, demand....

"The Mullahs may have created a tidal wave they cannot stop."
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The widespread sense that elites have determined an outcome for themselves against the will of the people is very powerful and destabilizing indeed. It took only eight years for it to turn our own politics on its head and only that long, I believe, because of the shock of 9/11.