Going Away
I'm heading overseas for several weeks, into areas where blogging may not be possible or advisable. I'll try to let you know where I am, and what I'm doing, when I get there. Meanwhile, Marty Peretz, the owner of The New Republic, offers his daily pearl, this time on the June 12 Iranian elections:
Anyway, it looks like Ahmadinejad will be re-elected, perhaps by a larger margin than last time.
He must be extremely well informed. Most American officials I talk to think that while Ahmadinejad has to be considered the favorite, it will be difficult for him to win a true majority, in which case the election will be forced into a second round on June 19. (Several Iranians I've spoken with, including government officials, believe a second round is likely.) If the election does goes to a runoff, the incumbent president's chances diminish and those of his challenger--most likely, the reformer Mir-Houssein Mousavi--increase, since the other two main candidates are not like to support Ahmadinejad.
It should be noted that no one--not Iranians, and certainly not westerners--is very good at predicting Iranian elections. Four years ago, Ahmadinejad was barely mentioned in the pre-election horse race reports. The favorite was said to be Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the ultimate Iranian establishment insider. He was ultimately clobbered by Ahmadinejad, who was perceived to be a man of the people, in the second round. The landslide victory of Mohammed Khatami in 1997 was completely unexpected (although his reelection was not a surprise). It might be argued that the conservative forces, especially the religious police (the Basij) who guard the polling stations, have had their thumbs on the scales since the Khatami election, but the current election seems very much a tossup at the moment.
Once again, Iranian foreign policy--and therefore decisions about how and when to engage the United States--is determined by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, but a strong reformist vote may have some influence on Khamenei's future policies. The Supreme Leader has been fairly opaque about whom he favors in the current election--he gave what appeared to be a pro-Ahmadinejad speech in Mashad recently, but he also publicly rebuked Ahmadinejad a few weeks earlier. He is a distant relative of the reform candidate, Mousavi, which may mean something. He was also a rival of Mousavi's during the Khomeini era, which may mean more.
The current polls--historically unreliable--give Mousavi a slight lead.
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into areas where blogging may not be possible or advisable.
Perhaps you can join in the growing tradition and tweet us your GPS coordinants instead.
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Signed,
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Paul Dirks
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18°21' N and 64° 56' W -
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Be safe in your travels Joe.
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I'm curious that the discussions I've seen of the Iranian elections seem to assume that the election results will fairly reflect the votes cast. Is this really a reasonable assumption? We have a hard time making that assumption here.
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Any sense of how the temporary shut-down of access to the reformist candidate's facebook page has affected the contest? -
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that should read "we have a hard time making that assumption here with our own elections."
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the election results will fairly reflect the votes cast.
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If no, that would help explain the difficulties with polling. -
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Paul - right. that would also explain Marty Peretz claiming that "Ahmadinejad will be re-elected, perhaps by a larger margin than last time."
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No doubt. ACORN is also messing with Iran's elections.
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Say hi to Stephen Colbert and Sarah Palin for me!
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Joe: From the tone of your post, it sounds like you may be going somewhere dangerous. Be safe, Joe, and my prayers go with you.
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Be careful, Joe. I look forward to getting your take on events.
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I'm heading overseas for several weeks, into areas where blogging may not be possible or advisable.
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Hmmm. I'm seeing a blogger version of Midnight Express set in Waziristan. I'd go with Russell Crowe or maybe Clive Owen. -
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slightly OT...
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I'm not sure if this article has been linked here on US/Iran cooperation:
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"Iran supplied U.S. diplomats with the location of Taliban military units in Afghanistan after the initial bombing campaign in the fall of 2001 failed to rout them, according to former officials in the George W. Bush administration.
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The Islamic regime also gave the Bush administration "really substantive cooperation" on al Qaeda after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, at one point providing Washington with a list of 220 suspects and their whereabouts, said one official, former White House National Security Council Iran expert Hillary Mann Leverett." -
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Take care, Joe, and stay safe. Gadding about in dangerous places at your age!
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Re: Waziristan Express.
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I'm also going to cast Julianne Moore as KT, Sara Ramirez as JNS, and Fred Savage as MS.
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Amy Sullivan is out like Jar-Jar Binks. -
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Oops...
this article... -
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JK: If you'll give me your passwords, I'll post threads with your name on them while you're gone if you want me to. I have to warn you though, Amy might be in a really bad mood when you return because "your" threads might make fun of hers. I don't think she checks her own threads after she posts so you don't have to worry about her catching on by reading this one.
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Sacredh: the part of Amy Sullivan should really be played by Paris Hilton.
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Previous post should have been directed to sqr1. Sorry, thinking of proper empty head evidently emptied my own.
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I'm heading overseas for several weeks, into areas where blogging may not be possible or advisable.
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Well I can't think of any safe place where blogging is problematic, so good luck and be safe. -
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[...] Joe Klein won’t tell us where he’s going. I’m heading overseas for several weeks, into areas where blogging may not be possible or advisable. I’ll try to let you know where I am, and what I’m doing, when I get there. [...]
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I love mystry and this could be a Dickinsian installment. Let's see...Klein has been focused on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Isreal, and the West Bank lately. What could it be?? The President is headed into Crazyland next week. Hmmmm. Don't forget your flak jacket and steel pot. We will stand by with abated breath.
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I forgot, one more thing. I want to be there with you men, but I'm needed back here at home.
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Joe: Godspeed. And, I hope you score tickets to Colbert's USO special from...somewhere in the Persian Gulf.
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PD: Leave it to Michigan's own Pete Hoekstra to tweet his coordinates from top secret missions. IOKIYAR.
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sqr1: Meesa likin' yur idea fo' castin' dee Swampmoovee! Whysa everybody rollin' der eyes like dat?
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sacredh: LOL! The Swamp-water cooler would be frostier than usual when Joe got back! -
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One more thing. "Going Away" when Crazyplace is the destination is a bit ominous. "Be Back Soon" would be better.
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Bring us back something nice. Nothing on the order of "JK went to the Middle East and all we got was a lousy t-shirt".
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Bring a burka back for Amy!
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