Arlen Specter Aftershocks

I think the only way Ridge beats Toomey in the primary is if Toomey doesn't run. Ridge would be a better opponent in the general election but the wingnuts are going to have their way in the primary. They aren't thinking long term at all. From every bit of evidence I can see, they're taking the approach that they'd rather lose than have someone run that doesn't agree with them straight down the line.

One finding that hasn't received much attention is this one -
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Even though voters approve 66 - 29 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, they say 52 - 44 percent that the Democratic dominance in the Senate is "dangerous" because President Obama and the Democrats would be able to steamroll over Republicans.
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I think this is a result of years of he said, she said coverage and the tut-tutting about over-reaching that was on display with Joe on the Sunday Chris Mathews show.
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In addition I think it shows the effectiveness of the Republican pearl clutching machine. I didn't hear any concerns about steamrolling or over-reaching when that is precisely what the Repubs did during the first six years of the Bush admin.

And there's no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats. If Toomey and the GOP base would have been happy with a moderate like Ridge, why wouldn't they have just stuck with a sure thing like Specter? I mean, is there really a big difference between the two? Even if - and it's a big IF - Ridge did somehow decide to run and won the GOP nomination, my guess is that Specter would still beat him. The only risk for the Dems re: a Ridge candidacy would be if Specter loses the Dem primary to somebody like Joe Sestak. That still may be a tight race but name recognition and past history with GOP voters statewide would probably give Ridge the edge in that race. Sestak, like Specter or any other Dem candidate, would smack Toomey in the general election.

"I think this is a result of years of he said, she said coverage and the tut-tutting about over-reaching that was on display with Joe on the Sunday Chris Mathews show."

It's also evidence of how the GOP, now that they are in the minority, have redefined the constitutional separation of powers. Today, in the GOP's redefining of the founders' intent, "checks and balances" means "don't let one party control Congress and the WH". They'd have you believe that what the founders really wanted was not a separation of the powers granted to the three branches of government in the constitution but split control of these branches by party. Of course, many of the founders who have preferred no political parties at all, but then nobody ever accused the GOP of historical accuracy or honesty.

My last past should read "founders WOULD have preferred..."

Maybe Toomey should become a Democrat too! He could even oppose EFCA and significant parts of healthcare reform. Also, if Tom Ridge is Senator I'm duct taping plastic all around my Pittsburgh home.

I've said before that if Specter proves his worth to the democrats by using his vote on cloture to allow a simple majority vote to take place, Obama will campaign for him and the only thing left will be waiting for the fat lady to sing. I'm both happy and amused at the republicans dance with Death, I just can't figure it out. It's like they're convinced the apocalypse is right around the corner and they want to prepare for it by burning down their house.

Its a long time to the primary and a lot can happen between now and then. The problem for Ridge is that he probably would have no better chance of making it out of a primary with Toomey as Specter would have. What we have to wait on now is polling of Specter vs other potential rivals like Torcella or Sestak.

And there's no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats.
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He will say that they were taken out of context or Photo-shopped and the MSM will dutifully report it as such. If they actually catch him violating said goat, it will just become another in a long line of "non-stories" that never seemed to make it into the discussion.
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As for Sestak "primarying" his a$$, I'm all for that. I'm having a little trouble figuring out exactly WHAT he actually promised in return for his keeping his seniority.
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Karen, I know you admire Reid, but he really needs to step up his negotiation skills . . . they stink!

afguy
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Democrats in the Senate have already said that Harry Reid doesn't have the power to promise Specter seniority. In fact it won't get voted on until after the midterms. So whatever promise Reid made it doesn't seem all that enforceable.

"And there's no way Toomey abandons his run at this point unless somebody uncovers photos of him violating goats."
Toomey: I think it's just wrong that my political adversaries would stoop to using my deep love for animals that God Himself created to try to distract the voters. Besides, have you seen my wife?

K Tizzle
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I think it all depends on how Specter votes. You have to remember that this is also the Senate caucus that will probably include Al Franken at that point. I can't wait for him to get seated.

I think the Club for Growth can be counted on to shrink the GOP's chances for a win in Pennsylvania. The Blue Dog Democrats will blunt the claim that the Democratic party members in Congress ill repeat the rubber stamp behavior demonstrated by the Republicans during GW Bush's administration.
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The PA GOP will end up being represented by Limbaugh listeners who consider Joe the Plumber an intellect. The GOP simply has no message that will appeal to beleaguered working class Pennsylvanians.
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Remember, these Pennsylvanians, who were presented as the woman who wondered why Obama did not wear a flag pin in his lapel, were never supposed to vote for Barack Obama. The mood of the country has changed.

Toomey represents the old guard of the Republican Party. Those who want fiscal responsibility and a smaller government. As long as he maintains that platform he wins. It is that simple.
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Specter cannot be trusted and deserves to be with his now cozy democrat scum buddies.

So whatever promise Reid made it doesn't seem all that enforceable.
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Hope so, sgwhite.
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It looks like the membership will have to force some discipline onto Sens. Reid and Specter by telling them that it doesn't matter what he now calls himself - he's going to have to earn the perqs by voting and supporting the positions. If he keeps doing and saying what he has been doing recently, then support Sestak or another good candidate and let him sink or swim on his own.
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There's just a Lieberman feel to all of this (Spector is for Spector, first and foremost, as was Joe L.). Both are questionable in the "principles" department, as far as I am concerned.
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If you are going to "use" Arlen, just make sure who is using who.

Democrats in Pa appear to LIKE Specter. A lot.
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Karen,
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Have any surveys been done with the Dem voters AFTER the latest series of statements by Arlen? Are they "down" with his non-support for "card check"?
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Not saying that any one thing he has said or done will be a "game changer", but he has been pretty "non-supportive" of the president (and a few of his appointments) lately. Pretty much his "R" voting position is being continued.

Thanks for the replies, Karen. They're appreciated.

And, for the record, my views on unions are decidedly mixed, having worked around the UAW as a contract (non-union) employee when the Saturn plant was being built in Spring Hill, TN.
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I see both sides of unionization and, presently, lean more toward the "a pox on both of their houses" position because of first-hand experience.

First this is in effect Arlen Specter's inauguration. He will never have polling numbers this high again with Dems unless he does some heavy lifting and probably not even then. Second our President and our Secretary of State both campaigned for Joe Lieberman in a Dem primary two years ago and he still got beat by relative unknown Ned Lamont. Third 23% of Dems said it made it less likely they would vote for Specter if he opposes EFCA. Thats 9 pts higher than those who said it would make them more likely to vote for him. Fourth if Ridge runs and he is seen as being neck and neck with Specter its likely Dem leadership might want a real Dem running against Ridge.
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I still say we need to see polling of Specter vs likely primary candidates before we can make any kind of informed assessment other than the fact that Toomey isn't likely to beat Specter in a general.

Great comment from a reader of TPM: "Arlen Specter thinks he's a middle of the road moderate because he says one thing and then votes the opposite and he believes that somehow balances things out."
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I've spent next to no time in Pennsylvania, but I don't understand the Democratic support there for Specter. Here is a guy who has spent the past 29 years voting against the things that the core constituency's of the Democratic Party support. Then, he decides one day last week to switch teams and walks into an 81% approval rating?!

........Toomey represents the old guard of the Republican Party. Those who want fiscal responsibility and a smaller government. As long as he maintains that platform he wins. It is that simple.
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Toomey may win the GOP Primary. Toomey will lose in a General election. It is that simple.
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The Club for Growth helped defeat the following Republicans, Wayne Gilchrist (R-MD), Heather Wilson (R-NM), John Swarz (R-MI), and Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Only 21% of voters self-identify as Republicans. 200K Republicans shifted to the Democratic Party in the Presidential election.