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McCain and Kissinger on Afghanistan

John McCain and Henry Kissinger have weighed in on Afghanistan in the past 48 hours--and both have a good grasp of the problems we're facing there, but their solutions diverge, at least in emphasis, and these nuanced disagreements illuminate the mind-boggling difficulties we're facing in the Af/Pak region.

McCain's speech at the American Enterprise Institute is far more detailed than Kissinger's op-ed in the Washington Post today, and it shows a better understanding of the problems on the ground. For example, McCain understands that the Afghan national army has been a surprising success--an integrated multi-ethnic force that has performed reliably in battle against the Taliban. Not surprisingly, McCain is more bullish on nation-building than Kissinger, and--as he did in Iraq--places more emphasis on counterinsurgency operations (protecting the populace) rather than counterterrorism (chasing after the bad guys). Kissinger agrees with McCain on the potential efficacy of General Petraeus's proposed counterinsurgency strategy--which already has had positive, pre-Petraeus success in some of the valleys patrolled by the U.S. military in eastern Afghanistan. But the fundamental difference between McCain's nation-building and Kissinger's more modest notion of preventing Afghanistan from being a terrorist haven is precisely where the rubber meets the road--and where the Obama policy team has to make a big decision. Kissinger is right that Afghanistan has never lent itself to coherent nationhood--a fact that McCain doesn't mention--but then what? How do you prevent the terrorists from establishing havens if you don't have a stable, effective Afghan nation-state?

Which is precisely the problem across the border in Pakistan, where the terrorist havens actually exist these days. Pakistan, it has been said, is an army in search of a country. That army has chosen to allow the terrorists to infest the northwest while focusing its attention on the Indian threat to the east. It seems to me that the problem with both the McCain and Kissinger speeches is that they have the situation precisely reversed: the stabilization of the Pakistani nation-state is far more important than anything happening across the border in Afghanistan. Get Pakistan right and you have a chance in Afghanistan. Get Pakistan wrong and you have no chance.

That's why the most hopeful, and positive, development in McCain's speech is his support for a major economic development package for Pakistan--presumably, the Kerry-Lugar legislation that will probably be the first major foreign aid bill to pass the Congress. The least hopeful aspect in McCain's speech is that he has set himself up to be a hawk in the Afghanistan sideshow, favoring higher troop levels in a looming debate between the military and the Obama Administration that isn't nearly as important as focusing now, intensely, on figuring out how much cooperation we can expect from the Pakistani military in the effort to deal with the terrorist infestations in northwestern Pakistan--and whether we can have any reasonable expectation that Pakistan, with its 100 nuclear weapons, can become a stable and reliable U.S. ally in the struggle against the jihadi extremists it now harbors.

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  • 1

    Wonderful! The Serious People have spoken! Joke Line takes notes! We're all so grateful. All we need now is the wrap-up from Auntie Broder.

  • 2

    When Henry Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973, the distinguished musical satirist Tom Lehrer decided that he could no longer perform. "It was at that moment that satire died," says Lehrer, "There was nothing more to say after that."

    What does Dr. Strangelove have in second place on his Afghan to-do list, after bombing the hospitals?

  • 3

    How sad our establishment continues to listen to the opinions of Kissinger, the war criminal. (Remember, he has to check the laws of countries he travels to out of fear of arrest and extradition.) I also wonder what relationship his company, "Kissinger and Associates" has with the countries and business interests in the Pakistan, Afghanistan region? For example, when he talks about China, you won't hear him acknowledge that the Chinese Government is one of his clients. But what does that matter? He is a "wise old man" whose opinions help drive conventional wisdom.

    As for McCain, he is more representative of the failed foreign policy of the last 8 years. His opinions are all over the place - depending on the politics of the moment. (See Joe's recent post on Russia.)

  • 4

    Joe, why do you assume that we can decide Pakistan's fate for them? Short of "doing an Iraq", marching in, killing leaders we don't like, and fighting the backlash for thirty years, there isn't much we're going to guarantee about Pakistan's future no matter what policy we choose. You say "tread carefully" of course, but any policy that has our military taking lead in any kind of visable action against Pakistan interests or has us obviously siding with India is only going to set the Pakistan populace against us.
    -
    Maybe we have to promote "Made in Pakistan" to make nice... or maybe we should get away from the Middle East and the oil industry there in and simply let sleeping dogs lie (or they get nuked).

  • 5

    Joe Klein:
    .
    Why is it that we only find you responding to discredited rightists' foreign policy pronouncements?
    .
    Do you not know who Juan Cole is, for example?

  • 6

    I'm with centfan. What exactly is the limit of our interference in other countries? Infinity? I can't imagine how anybody can read this blog post and not experience repeated mind flashes of the Viet Nam tragedy. How many years did we prop up corrupt, clueless leaders in the south? Only to forestall the inevitable after countless lives and unimaginable destruction. After finally prevailing in the long disaster, those evil communists then went into Cambodia where real genocide prevailed and kicked out the Khmer Rouge while we watched with our foreign affairs thumb in our ear.

  • 7

    well, you know someone is full of it when they can't tell the difference between "terrorists" and "the Taliban".
    _
    here's a clue. The reason that the Taliban did not turn over bin Laden was not because they thought that 9/11 was consistent with the Koran and Sharia law. It was because they wanted bin Laden tried under Sharia law (the Taliban was willing to turn bin Laden over to a council of Islamic clerics for trial), or at least have the US provide proof of bin Laden's involvement in 9/11 consistent with the provisions of Sharia law. (Bush simply refused to provide any real evidence of bin Laden's direct involvement.)
    _
    The simple fact is that authority in these areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan is harsh -- and that acts of "terror" in enforcing authority are the norm. The Taliban is no more (or less) a "terrorist" group than the royal family of Saudi Arabia who preside over a justice system that includes torture, 'secret trials', and flogging, amputation of limbs, and beheadings as punishment for crimes.

  • 8

    I'm sorry to disagree with the prevailing sentiment here. Pakistan is not Iraq or Cambodia. Pakistan's democracy is shaky, weak, and frequently in jail. Pakistan is run by a military with not-insubstantial ties to Islamic nihilists on one side and the keys to nuclear weapons and missiles on the other side. Pakistan has engaged in four wars since 1947, and nearly started another one after it demonstrated its nuclear capability.
     
    I understand that we can't afford to march in there, and we'll make even more enemies if we do, but Pakistan left to itself is shaping up to be a failed state. And this would be a failed state unlike any we've seen before.

  • 9

    "Kissinger is right that Afghanistan has never lent itself to coherent nationhood--a fact that McCain doesn't mention--but then what? How do you prevent the terrorists from establishing havens if you don't have a stable, effective Afghan nation-state?"
    ...
    Iraq just had wildly successful elections -- with little international media coverage, never mind the price in blood and treasure paid to secure that basic right of modern human existence -- and anything that comes close in Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iran et al will have to start there (i.e., fair and open elections, with the security it requires to not only hold the event but to implement the will of the people via their newly elected representatives).

    We take it for granted that we have these rights here, but they were attained and protected at huge costs that some nations are now just starting to grasp. And we too had outside support (and opposition), at the beginning of our democracy.

    If we're truly a Global Village (and not just a global TMZ gutter) we deserve to offer our potential new allies the same sort of support we offered our old enemies after WW II.

    The people of the 3rd world are no less deserving of Western support and loyalty than any EU enclave -- that hasn't ever really lived up to the gifts they've been served by the American soldier and their supporters back home, despite the invocations of Albright and Holbrooke.

  • 10

    Hmmm. If I were Obama, I'd tell John McCain to shut the f--k up and get back in his box. (I can't understand why you don't do the same, Joe.)
    .
    Not sure I'd pay a lot of attention to Kissinger either.

  • 11

    hula, your reasoned post is a refreshing departure from the usual lists you post.
    .
    But, of course, I disagree. We are not truly a global village. And we did not kill, maime, bomb europe after WWII.

  • 12

    Did hulagate just post something that didn't contain all of the current Republican talking points and slander? He/She/It must have copied and pasted this from some sane person. If he/she/it keeps doing this, he/she/it might actually add something to the conversation instead of just taking up space and having people just skip over his/her/it's nonsense.

  • 13

    I understand that we can't afford to march in there, and we'll make even more enemies if we do, but Pakistan left to itself is shaping up to be a failed state.
    _
    uh, where do you get this "failed state" nonsense from?
    _
    A "failed state" is one that has no central authority -- simply "losing democracy" has nothing to do with a "failed state."
    _
    and btw, calling radical Islamists "nihilists" is just plain ignorant.

  • 14

    I think it would actually be more beneficial to help the people struggling to survive in the third world countries. The Borgen Project (www.borgenproject.org) stats some interesting facts regarding global poverty and national security. If the U.S. and other Super-nations help those in need there are less people to be recruited by the Taliban. The Taliban goes into these countries and provide food and schools to the community, and if these people are doing things like that for them, then they can't be all bad right? Helping the 963 million people that go to sleep hungry every night will benefit the world in the long run.

  • 15

    A "failed state" is one that has no central authority

    You mean like Pakistan? Where Swat is controlled by the Taliban and Punjab and Sindh are controlled by Zardari?

    and btw, calling radical Islamists "nihilists" is just plain ignorant

    The killing spree in Mumbai was nihilism. They made no demands, had no message. Lashkar-e-Taiba, based in Pakistan, sent the killers. "Islamic nihilists" fits.

  • 16

    ...anything that comes close in Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iran et al will have to start there (i.e., fair and open elections, with the security it requires to not only hold the event but to implement the will of the people via their newly elected representatives).
    .
    If we're truly a Global Village (and not just a global TMZ gutter) we deserve to offer our potential new allies the same sort of support we offered our old enemies after WW II.
    .
    The people of the 3rd world are no less deserving of Western support and loyalty than any EU enclave...

    .
    Question Hillary has actually reiterated Joe Klein's sentiments on the "noble purpose" of our continued occupations quite well, fellow commenters.
    .
    Say what you will, but that distillation of Joe's principles on the matter was quite cogent. Question Hillary should be writing articles in The New Republic, apparently.
    .
    Seriously, is there any real difference between what QH just put together, and say, any random column by Davids Brooks or Ignatius in WaPo or the Times over the past two years?
    .
    QH: You do realize that you and Joe (and Michael O'Hanlon) are in almost total agreement on this subject, right?

  • 17

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090226/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/pentagon_war_dead
    ...

    Who elected John 4 MEDALS IN 5 MINUTES Kerry the conscience of the American people?

    Or Paul Rieckhoff?

    The PISS ON THE TROOPS PARTY never ceases to reach new lows of curiously morbid depravity, and self-serving BS.

    If U.S. troops were late term abortions, the libs would be screaming at the tops of their Marin County lungs for the press and people to stay the hell away from the butcher "clinics".

    What a legacy.

  • 18

    "You do realize that you and Joe (and Michael O'Hanlon) are in almost total agreement on this subject, right?"

    ...

    To the contrary, I make no prediction as to what Klein or North Korea will be doing or saying in 5 minutes.

  • 19

    "Say what you will, but that distillation of Joe's principles on the matter was quite cogent."

    ...

    Until this week they still paid by the noun at Time, correct?

  • 20

    Rest assured that I haven't joined the ACLU and Peabrains For The Amer-Asian Wake just yet -- since I won't be subscribing to any tome that stupidly thinks we're being now managed by a cadre of the best & brightest (versus Bush, Cheney). Holbrooke's grand diplomatic victory in Yugoslavia was made possible by U.S. military power, not the power of Soggy Bottoms persuasion.

    Anyone that thinks the Taliban will be laying down guns as fast as the French, er, Paki army needs to have their noodle examined.

    Obama's a bigger cheerleader than Bush (I really expected Skippy to do the splits on stage after his 10 Year tirade on Tuesday), but even the eloquent need a sense of reality.

    Hopefully that change won't be too far gone either.

  • 21

    Did I mention that John Kerry's still a flaming dork?

  • 22

    cougargal06
    ...

    Ahem.

    GIVE IT A REST, EH BABS?

    Hamas STEALS every other load of U.N. aid into Gaza, just like the thugs in Somalia, Darfur, Nigeria, on & on & on.

    Basic SECURITY is the first step, followed by fair ELECTIONS, followed by fair LAW ENFORCEMENT. Nothing good will flow short of those difficult realities being achieved, anywhere on the globe. Not rocket science, just harder for some liberals to grasp than their life partner's nuts.

    The children will be fed when the adults start to act like adults, and not foaming rabid rats.

  • 24

    Stuart, you big meanie, you scared QH into messing his/her/its diaper again.

  • 25

    sz, thanks for the link to your blog. Little did I know that you, Rose, Jay, and PD were a team. But how can you tell who wrote the blog post, for example, the one about Klein? There is no attribution.

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