Not So Fast

I don't think we have a handle on the internal dynamics of Iranian politics. In Teheran they call our various analyses "Council on Foreign Policy" thinking. I don't think Russia will be a willing partner if we try any strongarm tactics. Do you think the encouragement to use the strongarm will come out of Jerusalem?

Iran is a tough problem for the United States. We have never really seemed to understand the Iranian people and their culture. I don't see much to suggest that anything has changed. It's going to take a profound amount of patience and compromise on the part of the United States to make a dent in changing this relationship. And I just don't know that the commitment is really there.

Joe-
We appreciate your attention to the Middle East, and your willingness to go there to understand it first-hand.
Although as you can see from the relative quantities of comments to various posts, it's just not where our heads are at right now.

We need to make a deal with Russians first--the obvious one is suspending any plans for an anti-missile system in return for verifiable Russian support for the UN's efforts to prevent Iran from developing a bomb.
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The silver lining from the bellicosity and stupidity of the Bush administration is that there plenty of idiotic ideas that we can now negotiate away in order to get concessions from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, etc.

Joe:
The best thing to be done is to look past the fact that Larijani is pushing an Anti-American image.
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We need to look forward to the big question, and that is this:
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How can we best help the moderatates to again improve their standing in the Iranian elections?
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Obviously, intimidation (Bush and Israel) only inflamed Iranian nationalism at the expense of the moderates. That we've seen, and we've had to put up with Ahmadinejad's rants which did nothing to further peace in the Middle East and push Israel rightward, to the detriment of the Palestinians.
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We are in an odd situation in which, if Netanyahu hooks up with Liebermann, we may have to work harder to restrain Israel then we would restraining even Iran, Hizb Allah, Hamas, or Syria. These guys could touch off a ME war in the middle of an economic crisis
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Joe, whatever the benefits/drawbacks to Israel itself, I do not think that tossing yet another, this time likely enormous, spike in oil prices on top of our already worsening economic woes is a good idea.
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Iran is not about to attack Israel. Obama will have his choices narrowed down to two:
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Impose peace on Isreal, with guarentees, or face war in the middle of an economic crisis...

"Today, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad extends an olive branch...Ahmadinejad is running for re-election as President with very low popularity, given his failed domestic policies and his poisonous blather overseas."
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The fact that Ahmadinejad sees this as politically advantageous says something about the dynamic inside Iran doesn't it? I had a good Persian friend who told me Persians see life as a nightclub. So how did these cosmopolitan, nightclub loving people end up ruled by theocrats? We overthrew the Iranian democracy and installed a despot and trained his secret police force, who successfully eliminated democratic institutions and anyone who could have carried democracy's torch. We created the vacuum that the Ayatollahs waltzed into, and we've responded ever since w/ bellicosity and threats which plays right into the hands of the theocrats. It's time to end this vicious cycle and Obama's the guy to do it hopefully.

What's the weather in Damascus today?

You bring up a number of interesting points, and your rationale is very logical.
I think the biggest question is whether it is realistic to expect that Russia and Syria would change their foreign policy strategies so suddenly based on a single concession from the U.S.? I am afraid that they will pay the idea lip service while continuing to do exactly what they have been doing for the past several years.
You hit the nail right on the head with your analysis of the Iranian president though. Any one-on-one discussion with him would grant him credibility and improve the likelihood of him winning the next election. If his support really is waning, giving him a boost in the arm may be a decision that we come to regret when he is back spouting hateful rhetoric again the week after his re-election. I can't help but find it ironic that he spends so much time blasting the west for not respecting his country and its history, while at the same time doing more damage to Iran's world image than almost any other political figure in the recent past - it is precisely his bigotry and close-mindedness that stand in the way of the respect he so desperately seeks.

As long as US did not change its ambitious plan of a missile shield deployment bases in Eastern Europe, there is no way that Russia will get along with United States. Those days are long gone when Russian used to trust US. US also need to stop an unconditional support of Israel and bring peace in that region by engaging the Israel and Arabs to solve Palestine issue. The most impotant thing is to bring all groups of Palestinian together. To leave Hamas out would be an other dangerous mistake and Israel has to change its aggressive behavior of American puppy dog in the region. Nuclear Technology is the right of Iran, if it is for a peaceful purpose. So far what Iranian leadership is saying. It still would be a hard job to convice Iran to dismantal it's Nuclear program regardless the outcome who would be the next president of Iran

Joe Klein:
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Do you believe that there is any chance in the foreseeable future that the President of the United States of America could answer this question at a press conference:
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Q Mr. President, do you think that Pakistan are maintaining the safe havens in Afghanistan for these so-called terrorists? And also, do you know of any country in the Middle East that has nuclear weapons?

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honestly?
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(and by honestly, I naturally mean that he would answer: Yes and Israel.)

"As long as US did not change its ambitious plan of a missile shield deployment bases in Eastern Europe, there is no way that Russia will get along with United States."
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I believe Biden took a step in just that direction yesterday if I'm not mistaken.

It's useless to have any agreements with Iran when countries and 'allies' like France, Germany, Switzerland, China, and Russia are and have always acted like two bit whores sending nuclear technology to Iran in exchange for a bit of money they can hide in Swiss Banc accounts.

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