The House Vote
Three thoughts:
1. This is not unprecedented. Republicans did not give Bill Clinton's 1993 economic plan a single vote--and you remember how the Clinton Plan led to the Great Depression of 1993...oh, wait a minute, no--it led to the Great Expansion of the 1990s. The point is, Republican economic thinking--with its tax cut obsessive-compulsive disorder--has proven as wrong as it is, apparently, immutable.
2. This is not final. The Senate version of the bill is likely to get Republican votes, especially now that the Alternate Minimum Tax exemption has been included at Sen. Grassley's (R-Iowa) behest. There is also likely to be a pork-wringing exercise when the bill gets to the reconciliation stage of the process. I wouldn't be surprised if you see a not-insignificant number of House Republicans vote for final passage, especially those who hail from districts that Obama won.
3. There is an awful lot of crap in this bill. And much of it is Republican-style crap, as Tom Edsall reported: more than $23 billion in old-fashioned tax breaks to corporations, which stimulates nothing except the lobbyists' bank statements. That sort of thing is as disgraceful as it is inevitable--the grease needed to get votes for the final package. I'd prefer a more elegant bill--and especially one that includes more spending programs targeted on an energy-efficient future, including more rail transit (as well as an Infrastructure Bank to vet all new programs, as Obama promised during the campaign). I'd also prefer to have been born with reflexes quick enough to enable me to play shortstop for the Mets. The most important thing is to get this big messy booster shot moving into the economy as quickly as possible. (Although I do hope we double back later and make a major effort to remove corporate loopholes from the swiss cheese tax code--combined with a modest reduction of the corporate tax rate, which stands as one of the highest in the world, mostly because the plethora of loopholes make such a high rate necessary).
More Crap: This "Buy American" codicil in the bill is a really bad idea. It is a form of Smoot-Hawley protectionism, which will limit markets for US products overseas--note the remarks of Caterpillar's DC lobbyist--and keep the economy in full stall here.
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1
I might point out sacocherrys' point on this yesterday:
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/01/28/no-house-republicans-vote-for-stimulus-bill/#comment-37697 -
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Oops. Meant sacoharry's comments. My bad...
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Agreed on #2 Joe, and I think that's the linchpin to the whole thing. This was an excellent face-saver by a Republican House who knows it'll get a second chance in 2-3 weeks to revote. The new bill will undoubtedly be more to their (and their constituents') liking. It's (in your terms) an elegant way to be able to say "We helped make it better." Let's look at 2002. After 9/11 the Dems fawned all over the Right and voted knee-jerk with them, hoping to keep some shred of power. Yet they were still decimated in the '02 elections ('04 also for that matter). The Left abandoned them and the Right certainly weren't going to give them a vote. IMHO the Republicans learned from this. They needed a solid front to give a nod to their constituents, and this was the perfect opportunity. In 3 weeks' time nobody will remember yesterday's vote; they'll only remember the yeas/nays on the one that became law. I'll put money down on it getting at least 40 Republican votes when it comes.
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LOL, thx 53_3. Sacocherry's one I've never gotten before, I think I like it.
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I think that your comment has merit there and is worth serious consideration, precisely because there is a lot of Republican leaning stuff in there.
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They give Obama a rough ride, look good to their base, then play to the middle on the Senate go-round.
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I do hope that the irrelevant stuff is removed from the bill during the reconciliation process between the House and Senate... -
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Hey Joe, any thoughts on Halperin blaming Obama for this?
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http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/01/29/latest-column-10/#comment-37831 -
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Glenn has an excellent post on this issue today. Below is just the first update.
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Those claiming that Obama has masterfully depicted the Republicans as arrogant obstructionists by extending the hand of compromise should review this latest Rasmussen Reports poll, which finds the public split almost evenly on whether they support the Obama/Democratic economic recovery package, with a clear trend towards increased opposition.
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This is what happens every single time: the Democrats do everything possible to "accommodate" the Republican position and then get attacked anyway (they voted in large numbers for the Iraq War in and then got attacked for being soft on Terror in 2002; they voted for virtually every Bush "Terrorism" policy and the same thing happened, etc.). Here, they did everything possible to change their bill to please Republicans and nothing is happening except full-scale GOP opposition accompanied by a constant barrage of GOP attacks against them as big-spending, reckless, wealth-transferring liberals.
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Ultimately, the success of this program will be measured by whether it produces successful results, so why shouldn't Democrats use their majority to enact the policy they think is most likely to achieve that? That's true on this issue and in general.
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http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/?source=rss -
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Republican obstructionism not unprecedented. You heard it here first.
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The folksy touch from Joe is great! I never knew he wanted to play baseball, but now I do. That's just great.
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Meanwhile, here's something for the Dems, the Mexican government, and Joe Klein to cheer about. -
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Thanks for the link to the poll gunny but the truth is these are not opinions about the bill, the public doesn't have a clue as to whats in this bill. These numbers reflect their opinion of the conversation being had among journalists. The round table talk is either making them more or less confident in the plan or they are not sure what to make of it. If the media really wanted an honest opinion from the public they would stop telling people what to think and just tell them whats in the bill, it would be the first time they heard it.
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11
I'll have what he's smokin': (Halperin says it's Obama's fault)
"This is a really bad sign for Barack Obama to try to change Washington.... He needs bipartisan solutions. They went for it and they came up with zero.... [This] does not bode well for a future that is supposed to be post-partisan. [...]
"[Obama] could have gone for centrist compromises. You can say to your own party, 'Sorry, some of you liberals aren't going to like it, but I am going to change this legislation radically to get a big centrist majority rather than an all-Democratic vote.' He chose not to do that, that's the exact path that George Bush took for most of his presidency with disastrous consequences for bipartisanship and solving big problems."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_01/016655.php
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I guess Halperin ignored the fact that 11 Dems voted no, too.
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$820 billion: Recently passed stimulus plan.
$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.Political priorities by the numbers. Read more about it on the BORGEN PROJECT website (borgenproject.org)
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If Mark Halperin were replaced with a robot with Matt Drudge at the controls, would it make any difference?
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I suspect that the Senate will add in more junk than the reconciliation stage takes out. (Just a guess based on the current strategy.) -
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The truth is that these are already centrist proposals. Its just that in the house there are no moderate Republicans left only the wingnuts. In the Senate they have a little more room so we'll see, but the fact of the matter this is not just about stimulus this is also about 2010. the same thing happened to Clinton in 1993 but the 94 elections brought Newt Gingrich so maybe its a good thing he's making sure that in this process the GOP continue to look like wingnuts rather than a reasonable alternative. Of course it would be helpful if the media would stop portraying these wingnuts as centrists.
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Halperin seems to have missed the fact that things have changed. It is no longer a Democrats responsibility to come to the Republicans with hat in hand and beg to be allowed to sit at the table (as if it ever was).
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Offering bipartisanship does not mean that Democrats should abandon their principles and the promises they've made to their voters and turn around and act like Republicans.
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Obama offered bipartisanship to the GOPers. He opened the door and they refused to walk through it. He bent over backwards to address their concerns and all he got for it was a knife in the back.
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Although it's unlikely, I'd love to see some of the concessions that were made to the GOPers removed from the stimulus package. Willingness to compromise and act in a bipartisan way should have rewards. Unwillingness should have consequences. -
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"I'll have what he's smokin': (Halperin says it's Obama's fault)
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'This is a really bad sign for Barack Obama to try to change Washington.... He needs bipartisan solutions.'"
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Again, IOPIYAD (the corollary to IOKIYAR). -
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"If Mark Halperin were replaced with a robot with Matt Drudge at the controls, would it make any difference?"
"There will be no change without changing the village. They live in an alternate universe in which no matter what the election returns say, conservative policies are always preferred and liberals are the reason for the country's problems. This is what "post-partisanship" means in practice. The majority of people may want something different, but the conservatives don't and they still rule the political establishment, if only out of habit and by default."
-- Digby -
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When the final version of the bill comes out, Obama and his team will make the big push. The GOP lost on the basis of the economy. Jobs will continue to be shed prior to the final bill. Advantage Obama.
ThinkProgress points out that the GOP still has an advantage when it comes to guest shots on news opinion shows. Thus the GOP POV, however disjointed is being presented more frequently.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/01/28/cable-news-stimulus/
For those depressed an in need of a statistical uplift, head over to a Gallup poll suggesting only 5 Red States are left. (Hee Hee I said left)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114016/State-States-Political-Party-Affiliation.aspx
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20
It would appear the gloves are off.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090129/bs_afp/uspoliticsobamaeconomyhousevote
.After a failed "charm offensive," US President Barack Obama and his allies unleashed a hard-hitting campaign Thursday to break defiant Republicans' thus-far united opposition to his economic stimulus plan.
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The strategy called for millions of labor union members to telephone Republicans from hard-hit states, coupled with an aggressive television advertising campaign targeting potentially vulnerable Republican senators.
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The ad featured Obama's warnings about the economic crisis he inherited from George W. Bush and invited viewers in Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa to tell their senators "support the Obama plan for jobs not the failed policies of the past," according to the script.
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And the White House did not deny a report by Politico.com that it planned a state-by-state effort, highlighting job losses, to pressure lawmakers on the stimulus plan. -
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The Borgen Project (www.borgenproject.org) has some interesting facts concerning global poverty. It would cost $30 billion to eliminate global poverty, a small fraction of the $522 billion that was spent on the defense budget last year. Every night there are 800 million people that go to sleep hungry, 300 million are children.
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22
"Mommy, what did Pwezident Jesus turn so mean?"
You mean Obama? A common mistake, that one.
The Democrat party's 1000 BRIDGES TO NOWHERE neophyte Obama is throwing a virtual hissy fit, because his math is far, far worse than his mouth.
Underemploying an army of jack-rock tossing inflammatory union thugs and tenured liberal media loons, Obama has declared war on the American taxpayer, if not the D.C. lobbyists and Soros slackers and UAW dregs that only a Barney Frankly could love.
Obama should know better -- except his zippo experience and screwy background provide zilch that would qualify him as leader of the free world, much less a Chicago graft league.
On the plus side, he does know how to import illegal campaign finance funds from Gaza.
Timmy, we have to allow Obama the hope to change before he crashes and burns before our very over-regulated, under amazed eyes, since he's been promising change this and change that for the last 2 years.
Just ignore his lies about FISA, and McVain-Sheingold, and lobbying, and Bush, and Iraq.
Anything more would be against the agenda, and The One's cult simply won't tolerate that.
Now Timmy, show me again how to hook up the digital converter box. I think we have only until February or July to figure it out (not unlike your Pwezident Jesus)...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090129/bs_afp/uspoliticsobamaeconomyhousevote
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pointing and laughing at hula-
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ha ha ha ha ha ha hahaha! -
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Funny I didn't see many Republicans, including hulahoop, complaining when Bush was giving out billions of dollars to wall street bankers, who in turn were handing out 2 billion dollars in bonuses. Now all of a sudden they are concerned about the money being spent, when it is a Democrat in power.
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25
Joe Klein,
Please pick up the phone and give Mark Halperin a call about his recent collection of words about the Stimulus Package. The previous commentors have already correctly pointed out the inanity of his argument but since it is very unlikely that he would respond to us it would be greatly appreciated if you could take this conversation to the next level and ask him to defend his criticisms of Obama's administration. We can sit here and type out rebuttals all day but it is better to find out why he continues to think the way that he does.
Halperin's errors are as follows: The GOP's obstructionism has nothing to do with his fetish for 'centrism'. They had nothing to gain by voting for it and they knew it would come back to them after the Senate submitted their version. This was not a 'failure for Obama' in any way, shape or form. This was Congressional Republicans playing politics with a very important piece of legislation. Finally, why does he cling to such a useless concept as 'centrism' anyway? If the Democrats say that 2+2=4 but the Republicans get their panties in a bunch and shriek that 2+2=5 then is it incumbent on a 'Centrist' to nod in a serious fashion and proclaim that 2+2=4.5? Just because the GOP opposes something does not mean that it is wrong and given their record - which includes pushing these same policies that got us into this mess - I have no idea why people like Halperin give the GOP the time of day let alone the benefit of the doubt.
Seriously, Joe Klein, it would make for some very interesting blogging if you could help us lowly commentors by pursuing this. 'Centrism' might have some value when true partisans are in charge and the policies do not matter, but when the stakes are high and the pragmatists and technocrats are trying to actually solve the problems and not salve the egos, then 'centrism' is just as destructive as the rest of the Republican party platform. Mark Halperin is hurting America.
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