A blog about politics.

How to Begin with Iran

Looks like Dennis Ross is about to become the U.S. envoy in charge of Iran. But I'm not sure that sending Ross directly into the fray is the best way to launch negotiations. Here are four other things that should happen first:

1. The Obama Administration should send a U.S. Ambassador back to Syria. Pulling Margaret Scobie from Damascus was one of the stupidest diplomatic moves George W. Bush did as President, and should be rectified as soon as possible. What does this have to do with Iran? It sends the message that we're not accepting the exclusivity of the current Syria-Iran alliance, which is not very popular among Syria's Sunni majority--and that we're prepared to seduce Syria out of Iran's orbit. It also sends the message that our diplomacy is going to be subtler, more clever than it has been.

2. Push hard on nuclear arsenal reductions with the Russians, which would set the table for a stronger non-proliferation regime internationally. Bush's failure to do this was inexplicable. This could be the gateway for another important deal with the Russians--we drop the foolish fantasy of a European-based anti-missile system (and slow-walk the accession of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO) in return for real, verifiable Russian pressure on Iran to drop its nuclear enrichment program, including the possibility of a much stricter UN sanctions regime. 

3.Offer Afghan carrots. There's plenty of business in western Afghanistan that can be done jointly, if quietly, between the U.S. and Iran. The Afghan opium problem is a disaster for Iran: it has the highest percentage of heroin addicts in the world and might be open to joining NATO on an interdiction regime. There are also contracts--for asphalt, machine parts etc--that could be offered to Iranian companies as part of the U.S.-led Afghan development program. There should be a renewal of the Bonn process--that is, Afghanistan's neighbors plus the U.S. and E.U.--in the stabilization of Afghanistan. (Iran was very helpful in Afghanistan until the Bush Administration declared it part of the Axis of Evil and froze it out.)

4. Open a U.S. interests section in Tehran. Condoleezza Rice was about to do this last August but Bush, unrelenting to the last, vetoed it. This would be the first step toward re-establishing diplomatic relations with Iran.

After the U.S. did all these things, the ground would be prepared for more direct, bilateral talks with Iran at the special envoy level. There should be no rush to enter into direct talks, unless there is an intervening crisis. It can wait until after the Iranian presidential elections in June. But it's crucial that the approach be comprehensive, using the variety of carrots and sticks at our disposal--in Syria, Russia, Afghanistan and Iraq.

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  • 1

    For the sake of pragmatism, is it just accepted now that Iran should not make concessions of its own?

  • 2

    Joe,
    It would be hard to argue with any of your suggestions. They all would represent opportunities to improve the climate without any of them representing a fallback or consession. The pursuit of non-proliferation generally as opposed to simply holding 1 nation to be a pariah while turning a blind eye elsewhere, would certainly represent a solid improvment in our position.
    .
    Now, about that AP report....
    .
    ;-)

  • 3

    mackenzie92: Joe does not suggest making any concessions to Iran in this post.
    -
    Why would the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO make the US, NATO, or the world better safer?

  • 4

    Bush's failure to do this was inexplicable.
    .
    It is explicable. They want Armageddon. It's also why we have lockstep support for Israel - they want to get everything set up for when their great and terrible war god Jesus shows up and destroys all the non-believers.

  • 5

    "The Afghan opium problem is a disaster for Iran: it has the highest percentage of heroin addicts in the world and might be open to joining NATO on an interdiction regime."
    .
    So is the heroin addiction problem in Iran a a symptom of a larger problem, ie lack of jobs and future for Iran's citizens? Or is is merely a result of the close proximity of Afghani poppy fields? And if poppys are the only crop the poor people of Afghanistan can hope to make a living with, what will NATO's attempts to squash opium production do to their co-operation w/ NATO? Mostly it seems to me, these drug interdiction programs are either used to smoke screen imperial motivations, or used by local power brokers to stamp out rivals, as a financial windfall for various police states, or justification to squash any perceived threat to the prevailing power structure, or to just keep the poor down. What ever the reason, human rights abuses are sure to follow.

  • 6

    Don't you hear what President Ahmadinejad asked: "An apology for past US 'Crimes' committed against Iran."

  • 7

    cincinnatus- I don't know what exactly is a factor in Iran's high percentage of opiate users, but the economy and the proximity of Afghanistan could be major factors. According to the CIA Factbook, the "pipeline" of heroin from Southwest Asia to Europe passes through Iran. Plus, the Iranian government is really more pragmatic than we give them credit for. I think it would be a good idea to seek some detente there. We could send oil and gas from Central Asia overland through Iran, and we wouldn't need to worry so much about oil in the Gulf.

  • 8

    I think Russian involvement to achieving a postive outcome in Iran is critical and also unlikely. But that is just my two cents.

  • 9

    pattonmat89, my beef is really w/ these interdiction programs which are often as I describe them above. I'm suspicious of those who suggest more police powers as a solution.
    .
    "Don't you hear what President Ahmadinejad asked: "An apology for past US 'Crimes' committed against Iran."
    .
    No need to put quotes around "crime', we did indeed commit crimes in Iran. Including the overthrow of their democratically elected government in the 1950s, and our collusion w/ Saddam's usage of chemical weapons against the Iranian people. Sorry to burst your freedom bubble.
    .
    "I think Russian involvement to achieving a postive outcome in Iran is critical and also unlikely. "
    .
    Whose 'positive outcome' is the issue.

  • 10

    Ahmandinejad is kidding himself. But then again he knows it. Even if America was in the habit of publicly apologizing for actions like that, most American's simply have no knowledge of what our Middle Eastern policy was in the 1950's and don't care to.
    As for the positive outcome issue. It's all relative to which side you ask. For me it would be a non-nuclear Iran. But obviously the Iranians would probably not interpret that event as being positive from their end.

  • 11

    He might be kidding himself, but it doesn't make him wrong queencersei. When you spend 50 years or so playing the bully, we shouldn't be surprised that some of the bullied might decide owning a big ole gun to keep the bully at bay might not be such a bad thing.

  • 12

    Agreed cincinnatus. Though I think he absolutely knows no apology will be forthcoming. It is all a chess game and we are simply seeing the first couple of moves.

  • 13

    With all due respect, the author of this article is still engaging in imperialist discourse. What kind of language is "using the variety of carrots and sticks at our disposal." Either the author is ignorant or just repeats political jargon without knowing its meaning. Does he realize that carrot and stick is an idiom that derives from methods used for training MULES and other animals by drawing them foward with rewards (the "carrot") and driving them foward with punishment (the "stick"). So basically he wishes for the administration of HOPE and CHANGE to treat Iran as if it is a donkey and induce it to change in such a manner. Is this what is called mutual respect? Is this what is called dialogue? So he wants US to negotiate with a donkey?

    Please people stop this nonsense. The journalist elites of the western world must stop employing such insulting language and metaphors and treat the people of the 3rd world with respect and dignity, which they deserve. The Iranian people are nothing but victims of illegitimate interventions (Mossadegh in 1953) and instigated wars (Saddam's invadion of Iran in 1980 at behest of Brezeinski). They are not animals, but peple who also want to be treated with self-respect. This is the only way to resolve the tensions between the 2 nations. By dehumanizing a people it makes it easier to get support for killing them. I demand the humanization of Iran and all people of the 3rd World. This is the least I expect from Mr. Klein who is of Jewish descent and knows firsthand about discrimination and oppression!

  • 14

    I agree, cincinnatus. We need to be thoroughly honest: we suck, big time, at drug eradication (Columbia, Peru, Bolivia, anyone?). And really, drug eradication in Afghanistan is closely related to counterinsurgency tactics. We can't just say "Don't plant opium," and expect them to not plant opium, if it's the only way they'll make money. Maybe we could start programs (if they don't already exist) to give alternatives to opium growing, or revitalize any existing programs. Given that the Taliban make a lot of money from the opium trade (always have, since the beginning), that might be a way to get back at them. Of course, it's all very complicated, much more so than I can express before I have to get to class. If you want someone who is very good on Afghanistan, try Joshua Foust at Registan.net. He's done some very smart pieces on the Afghan opium trade. All my knowledge about Afghanistan is cribbed from him and a few other people.

  • 15

    defendingiran-
    All good points, but if the shoe were on the other foot, can you honestly say that Iranian hegemony would be perfect? Doubtful.

  • 16

    Hmm, let's see. I either have to support President Obama's approach to Iran or Joe Klein's approach.

    Sorry, Joe. I'm sticking with the new guy.

  • 17

    The journalist elites of the western world must stop employing such insulting language and metaphors and treat the people of the 3rd world with respect and dignity, which they deserve
    .
    We are discussing Joe (the Teddy Awards) Klein.
    .
    It will be long time before the assumption that the world belongs to us to rule as we see fit and that diplomacy is the art of getting all the other nations to realize this simple truth without killing too many unnecessarily falls by the wayside.
    .
    Unfortunately it will probably take something much worse that the Iraq fiasco for that to sink in.

  • 18

    Just saw someone on MSNBC discuss the Iranian overthrow in 50's...anchor quickly changed topic.

  • 19

    I cannot really see how Russia could sign this kind of a deal - pressuring Iran. If that were the case, then it would be a sign that Russia is becoming a weaker country in terms of deals with the U.S, as we know Russia is doing quite well these days, due to their totalitarian system connected with some Capitalist values and motherlands interests also are involved and being taken a good care of. I think pride is really important for a nation state like Russia and every other society-country which take pride for themselves. What I also think is that even at these modern days treat Russia like Soviet Union in some way. What is moving Russia forward is their growing unique Capitalist form and wise use of natural resources. Of course from a European point of view that could be seen as a not too good, but for Russian people it's the right way to go.
    Anyway, enough with the Russia and US, I'll save my fingers from any more typing.

  • 20

    To add, a bit more, I don't think relations with Iran are of top priority for the U.S right now. Relations with Russia are.

  • 21

    There may or may not be compromise with Russia: Russia Reported to Revise Missile Plan

    A Russian news report on Wednesday that Russia is putting off its plan to deploy missiles near the Polish border raised speculation that the Kremlin is seeking ways to lower tensions with the United States now that a new administration has taken office.
    ...
    The unnamed official was quoted as saying the Russian government had taken the step because Washington is not “pushing ahead” with the Bush administration's proposal to deploy an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech republic to defend against what the administration had said was a threat from countries like Iran.

    .
    I guess the Monday telecon between Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev was fruitful?

  • 22

    When superpowers have relations based on profit it can only be good for us, except if you live in a country where one of the s-power's interests are realized. Everyone is interested in making money. Money is the king? Isn't that true?

  • 23

    I hate to break the "Americans as imperialists" bubble but despite what might be a poor choice of words the idea of a carrot and stick approach is not necessarily a bad thing. Essentially we are standing up and telling people that cooperating with us is good for them and not cooperating is likely to have negative consequences. This style of diplomacy has been conducted among nations for hundreds of years. It is not necessarily condescending though it is slightly nationalistic.

  • 24

    @WL,
    It's certainly to be preferred to the all-stick-all-the-time approach we're replacing but what you euphemistically refer to as 'negative' consequences only differs from cold-blooded murder by the peculiar tradition that allows nations to do with impunity what is unquestionably immoral among individuals.
    .

  • 25

    [...] Klein of Time magazine offers some very sensible suggestions on how the Obama administration should improve its engagement with [...]

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