CBO and the Stimulus

"Not helping matters is a report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that came out Tuesday, which shows that only 38% of the $350 billion in appropriated funds — which includes $274 billion for infrastructure investments — would make their way into the economy within two years of enactment."
-Jay Newton Small
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"Here's what he has to say about the unofficial Congressional Budget Office analysis that has become the center of a controversy over just how quickly the money from Barack Obama's stimulus plan would be spent--and a subject of much chat among our Swampland commenters today."
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First off, why did Time report that there was a report from the CBO released last tuesday, when you're saying 'unofficial' CBO analysis. Did JNS misreport? And WHOSE analysis are you speaking of?
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Secondly, the controversy about WHAT the non existing report said is only part of it, the bigger part is that you in the media reflexively took what the GOP gave you and ran with it without ever doing and due diligence. Karen?

JNS is the Republican Party's playtoy! Says JNS: I don't have time for no damn reseach, just please give me something to put my byline on. So very Small!!!!!

Thanks, Karen. It's good to know someone cares more about accuracy than about partisan sound bites/talking points.

Hey, I'm just glad to see someone post about this. Thanks KT!

Thanks K Teezie
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You might want to quote this part in your post though.
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As for CBO, I find their efforts with respect to this package disconcerting. The Constitution delegated the making of budget policy to Congress. When the Congressional Budget Act was passed 35 years ago, CBO was established not for the purpose of transferring that responsibility from Congress to a team of experts but for informing the congressional deliberations with philosophically neutral, well-informed, and fact-based analysis—analysis based on a continuous and thorough vetting of all relevant information and points of view.
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While CBO is certainly “where the action is in federal budgeting,” as it boasts on its website, I am not convinced that they have met the standard for analysis that should be expected of them. The incoming director needs to carefully review these projections and insure that CBO protects its reputation for quality and objectivity.

KT... can you please ask Jay to respond, then? Just send her a little email saying there are some pretty peeved commenters who just watched the media regurgitate GOP talking points (based on the leak of only part of the CBO report) for the past few days. We'd love a reckoning of how that might've happened. And she's a good choice to get the answer from, since she was also one who did it.

Thanks for the link, KT!
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"In the end, spending forecasts are subject to most of the uncertainties contained in weather forecasts, economic forecasts, and even Super Bowl predictions"
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That part makes me wish Nate Silver worked for the CBO.

KT, don't take it personally. I and many others here believe if we don't hold your collective feet to the fires, we'll continue to get bad journalism of the type that leads people to support wars and other catastrophic policies that we have to live with here in the real world.

Agree with cincinnatus. The media monolith (especially TV, but see also TIME, AP, The New York Times and WaPo) is already on its way to helping kill public support for the stimulus, using GOP-supplied sexed-up-and-misleading talking points about birth control and partial CBO findings. Then not doing their journalistic best to get to the bottom of the story to find out what's true and what's not.

Warning: Past performance does not guarantee future results!
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It would appear that aside from the issue of the document being leaked and misrepresented, the methodoloy itself is rather suspect. It not an uncommon error in many contexts, extrapolating forward using historical data without accounting for the changing conditions that affect your forecast and aren;t included in your dataset. It's so common that probably fully 1/3 of all boneheaded business decisions are caused by some form of the problem.
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No wonder the Republicans have latched on to it. It's boardroom SOP!

"Here's what he has to say about the unofficial Congressional Budget Office analysis"
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Having just read Mr. Lilly's piece, it is as I expected. Karen, why in your estimation did your colleagues run wild w/ the GOP's analysis without ever questioning it's methods or at least raising the possibility that they were just playing political games. Most of the reporting I've read/heard treated this story as if there was a definite report, and that it said exactly what the GOP said it said. You are the first person in the media to use the word 'analysis' in regard to this story.

K Tizzle
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I understand what you mean, but I also realize that a lot of folks will never click the link if they don't get their beak wet. I guess its a fine line so I am not saying your way is wrong. But I can almost guarantee you that some outraged commenter is going to come here and go off about the non existent CBO report without ever clicking on the link and realizing that you are providing an opinion of a person you respect that actually agrees with most of us.
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Now here is the thing, and I know you don't particularly believe that talking heads have that much effect on the populous, but seriously that flawed half assed effort at an unofficial CBO report has infected like a virus all manner of journalism including print and Tee Vee and its hard to unring that bell. One of the only ways for it to happen is for some of the outlets that unleashed it in the first place to come out and correct themselves. Thats why most of us wanted someone to acknowledge the truth. Not necessarily trying to put you on the spot of being a media critic or putting your coworkers on blast but when none of them will respond what exactly are we to do?

Cincy: What was leaked--at least in reading what Scott wrote, which I trust, knowing his knowledge of the Hill--would seem to be a preliminary version of an ongoing CBO analysis. However, I was not leaked this document, so I don't know and am simply speculating.
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I try to avoid speculation, however, and am offering you an expert's analysis. I hope that is of value to you.
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As I think I have explained to you before, I am not a media critic. I will happily answer any questions you may have about my own work.

Karen,
This document is on Huffingtonpost. Do you only read things 'leaked' to you?
As an expert you might want to report on why the GOP is leaking false info to a willing press. This is the political story. sorry you are so busy coveing Blago to report on important stories.

OT: Sounds like our good Repugs at work:
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http://news.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/01/26/1846209
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I wasn't able to verify whether it was, in fact, Repugs, but it has their stink. I'll retract the snark if I'm wrong.

Geitner got confirmed btw

KT -- I thank you for at least responding to cincy's inquiry. However, I don't know that declaring that you are not a media critic is a viable excuse to ignore the media's role as pawn on the GOP chess board. Where is your personal outrage for being duped once again by the right. Paraphrasing here: all it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing.
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In my profession I have a code of ethics that while not a legal requirement is followed by most of us anyway so that our industry maintains credibility. And credibility is central to the bottom line. Perhaps, you should consider that journalism's decline has run somewhat parallel to a loss of credibility with the public perhaps a "not my job" attitude is a tad self defeating. Just a thought...

And to add to what dfh just said, would you be just as willing to run w/ something leaked to you by a Democrat? Also, if I'd been used like this I'd be a little pissed...but it just rolls of your back
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Camera Phone Predator Alert Act
Sponsored by.....drumroll......Rep. Peter King [R, NY-3], co-sponsor Rep. Thaddeus McCotter [R, MI-11]

linkage:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-h3488/show

"I'm not a media critic" sounds an awful lot like:
"Don't blame me! EEEEEYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEE didn't do it!"
-Krusty the Clown

Journalists today sound a lot like bad waiters at restaurants: "I'm sorry sir, you're not in my section." Who cares if you did it, or not. KT, aren't you incensed that your colleagues aren't doing their jobs or that the GOP took TIME (and others) out for a spin? How embarrassing -- not only for them, but for you and others who work for TIME!

That part makes me wish Nate Silver worked for the CBO.
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joyomama, great suggestion.
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And it's perfectly fair for KT not to want to be a media critic. That's not her job.

I'm going to just throw this out here, but mayhap KT feels a need to maintain a degree of separation to remain objective. Just spit ballin'. Obviously, KT does a much better job of speaking for herself.