Hold On, It's Worse Than You Thought
According to the National Radio Astronomy Observatory, everything is "faster, heavier and more likely to collide."
ALSO: While the galaxy may be much bigger than we knew, Paul Krugman fears that the stimulus, which will be a number followed by 11 or 12 zeros, is going to be too small to work. He does a bunch of math, and then concludes:
I see the following scenario: a weak stimulus plan, perhaps even weaker than what we're talking about now, is crafted to win those extra GOP votes. The plan limits the rise in unemployment, but things are still pretty bad, with the rate peaking at something like 9 percent and coming down only slowly. And then Mitch McConnell says “See, government spending doesn't work.” Let's hope I've got this wrong.
That last part is clearly the political outcome that Republicans are quietly hoping will happen. The alternative--Obama and his big government intervention saves the day--poses a near-existential threat to the Republican Party, as I wrote here. And there may be a historical precedent for this secret Republican hope. Republicans still feel burned for not getting credit for what they argue were the stimulative effects of the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. (The post-September 11 recession messed everything up, they say.) They know it's a hard sell to tell the American people: "Well everything sucks, and you are not as well off, but if we didn't sharply increase the national debt and spend your money it would be much worse." That's the line Henry Paulson has essentially taken with the TARP spending, and though he is almost certainly right, it's not the sort of message Democrats want to be taking to the polls in 2010.
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1
In Washington this applies to BS, too! Are you the SETI correspondent for Time, also?
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2
Is it a bad time to mention that Federal support for basic research is vitally necessary if we're going to continue to expand human knowlege in these important and life-affirming directions? After all, looking at a quarterly earnings report isn't going to justify very much time on that radio telescope array, is it?
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Remember that next time you want to go on about 'pork'. -
3
@Andy: In MS's case it's "SIBI"...the Search for Intra-Beltway Intelligence...
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4
How is this worse than we thought? You realize, I hope, that when they say "colliding galaxies" they don't mean stars smashing together like cars on an interstate. We're talking a time scale of millions of years, here, so we'll probably be either extinct or able to move to a different system if the Sun gets ejected out into the intergalactic void.
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The real bad news is that the universe appears to be heading towards a heat death.
Also, several billion years from now, the universe will be expanding so quickly that residents of any particular matter cluster (if they happen to exist) will not be able to observe any other cluster of matter, so they'll be ignorant of the early history of the universe. -
5
kbang...better chance finding extra-terrestril intelligence, don'tcha think?
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6
Yes, Cliff. It's a joke. Worse is a relative term. I am not actually more anxious now than I was this morning, before I read the news.
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7
"They know it's a hard sell to tell the American people: "Well everything sucks, and you are not as well off, but if we didn't spend your money it would be much worse."
Yeah, I'm pretty sure I heard someone point out that this governing thing is, you know, hard work. Here's a little tip for your Republican friends: if it fits on a bumper sticker (see: No New Taxes, Victory in Iraq, and Get Out of the Way of the Free Market) it's probably not much of a policy.
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Here's a little tip for your Republican friends: if it fits on a bumper sticker (see: No New Taxes, Victory in Iraq, and Get Out of the Way of the Free Market) it's probably not much of a policy.
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Yeah, but it is a great way to make a point in an attention deficit disordered society, and short enough for the chattering classes to remember and repeat repeat repeat.
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It's not about governing, it's about messaging. -
9
let's see, how does this go? "Why does the GOP hate America?"
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10
Not all that great of a joke.
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11
Oh, who cares? Two years from now we'll all be hunkered down in our homes with tons of weaponry fighting off the mobs. Oh, excuse me that's Rush Limbaugh's future.
We'll spend whatever we need to get out of this, budget or no budget. Mark my word.
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"It's not about governing, it's about messaging."
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You betcha! -
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"Also, several billion years from now, the universe will be expanding so quickly that residents of any particular matter cluster (if they happen to exist) will not be able to observe any other cluster of matter, so they'll be ignorant of the early history of the universe."
Wow.
Cliff's observation is a cogent one, and here is the corollary:
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From January, 2000:
Also, several years from now, the American peoples' knowledge will be expanding so quickly that residents of the Republican party will not be able to observe any facts whatsoever, so they'll be ignorant of even the most recent history of the United States.
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I think this proves beyond a shadow of Saltsmans' doubt that the Universe is an existential threat to the Republican party.
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Oh, well, we'll just have to have it razed and build a new one... -
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"It's not about governing, it's about messaging."
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Messaging what? The wrong head? -
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As Mr. Scherer subtly alludes to, Paul Krugman's analysis doesn't take into account the $700 billion dollars of TARP government spending, which while strictly speaking from an Academic perspective may not exactly be "Stimulus", is still freakin' $700 billion dollars in government spending to right the Economy!A dumb person, like myself, would read his analysis and wonder, "So, he's saying $775 billion isn't enough. Add the TARP and that's 1.475 trillion the government is spending over 2 1/3 years (?) to stimulate the Economy. What's the effect of THAT number and distribution?" Then again, the math to calculate the impact of the TARP program may not be so simple as the Obama plan -- which Krugman could be exploiting to argue for a richer Obama plan. A Conservative would probably dock Krugman for not explicitly discussing the TARP's Economic impact by name.
(Although he does say "In particular, letting businesses get refunds on past taxes based on current losses, which is reportedly a key feature of the plan, looks an awful lot like a lump-sum transfer with no incentive effects." Which I believe you'll find in your Democratic Gideon under "Don't trickle down on me.")
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"What's the effect of THAT number and distribution?" Then again, the math to calculate the impact of the TARP program may not be so simple as the Obama plan -- which Krugman could be exploiting to argue for a richer Obama plan. A Conservative would probably dock Krugman for not explicitly discussing the TARP's Economic impact by name.
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Um, except for the fact that the Republicans have already shrewdly shipped $6,900,000,000,000 out the back door of the treasury.
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And Bernanke, Paulson and Kashkari (what's in a name...) ain't tellin' jist who's gittin it... -
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"Don't trickle down on me."
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Too late. The GOP already did. See above. -
18
OK, OK, it's been a long day at the archives and I'm feeling especially dim-witted, but am I the only one wishing that (a) I had paid more attention in the ECON classes I was forced to take and/or that (b) the ECON classes I was forced to take had actually made more sense? I am a smart, educated person and when ever the subject turns to the economic meltdown and how to fix it, all my brain hears is the grown-ups in Peanuts going "wanh-wah-wah". Please someone point me to a primer that won't scare me silly.
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19
joyomama, I am right there with you. On the economy and on health care. (And yes, I know the two are related but we all like to pretend they're not, just like we like to pretend that Reid is a good Senator and William Kristol knows what he's talking about.)
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20
s still freakin' $700 billion dollars in government spending to right the Economy!
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Except that, from what I gather, the banks have taken that money, thanked Paulson kindly, and placed it gently but firmly into their pockets, never to see the light of day. -
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[...] Michael Scherer at Time’s Swampland for what seems to be the real story – that this stimulus stuff will fail, which he says is “the political outcome that [...]
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