The New York Times reports today that the vast “conspiracy” and possible “coup attempt” that caused the arrest of 24 officials at Iraq’s Ministry of Interior was just a bit of political rough-housing, Mesopotamian-style. The officials have been released. The Malaki government is chastened. There are two ways to think about this:
Glass half full: The nascent Iraqi democracy is apparently supple enough to derail this attempt at anti-democratic mayhem.
Glass half empty: We are witnessing the return to Iraqi politics as usual–a constant succession of coups and attempted coups that will produce something less than a democracy in the not-too-distant future.
I’d normally be a glass half empty guy, but the pleasant surprises of the past year or so in Iraq give me pause. Certainly, the next year will be crucial: provincial elections are scheduled for the end of January and national elections next fall. These will clarify the relative strength of the various contending Shi’ite parties, and the relative strength of the Kurds versus the Arabs and Turkomen in several borderline constituencies–Kirkuk comes to mind–in the north. A year from now we’ll have a much better sense of whether a stable ruling coalition can be democratically formed or whether Iraq’s future will look more like its dictatorial, juntafied past.
Meanwhile, the Three Amigos–Senators Lieberman, McCain and Graham–have a Washington Post op-ed in which they acknowledge that the Obama timetable might just be feasible, after all. Welcome aboard, fellas! I guess that means McCain no longer hopes for 100-year U.S. military bases…or maybe not:
Iraqis are tired of the presence of large numbers of foreign forces in their country, as was unfortunately illustrated by the shoe-throwing incident during President Bush‘s recent trip to Baghdad. These resentments will diminish as U.S. troops withdraw, but they should not, in any case, obscure the remarkable consensus that exists among Iraq’s democratically elected leaders about building a long-term partnership with the United States.
Iraq can serve as an anchor of stability in the region, a counter to Iranian hegemony and a model of democracy for the Middle East.
It’s possible that we’ll have a long-term partnership with the Iraqis…but a lot more possible that the Iraqis will have a long-term partnership with the Iranians, as they already do in much of southern Iraq. Our best long-term scenario is that Iraq doesn’t become actively hostile to the U.S.–and the shoe-throwing incident is an indication not just that the Iraqis are tired of our troops, but that they are still infuriated with the vast damage we did by invading and occupying their country.
The other rather annoying bit in the Three Amigos op-ed is their advice to the President-elect: listen to General Petraeus and General Odierno. Regular readers here know that I’m a Petraeus fan–he’s done an extraordinary job–but McCain et al are Petraeus fetishizers. Obama has made it clear that he intends to return to the traditional chain of command: he will consult with Petraeus, but policy will be made by the White House and the civilian leadership at the Department of Defense. Obama, unlike Bush, intends to be a Commander in Chief who sees the big strategic picture, acts on it and does not abdicate his authority to commanders in the field.