2008 Voter Turnout: Lots and Lots More Democrats
Curtis Gans of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate has issued his final report on turnout in the 2008 election. Among his findings:
In all, 131,257,542 Americans voted for president in 2008, nine million more than cast their ballots in 2004* (against only a 6.5 million increase in eligible population).
The turnout level was 63 percent of eligibles, a 2.4 percentage point increase over 2004 and the highest percentage to turn out since 64.8 percent voted for president in 1960. It was the third highest turnout since women were given the right to vote in 1920.
Overall turnout increased in 37 states and the District of Columbia. The greatest turnout increases occurred in the District of Columbia (13 percentage points), followed by North Carolina (10.3), Georgia (7.6), South Carolina (7.4), Virginia (7.1), Colorado (6.3), Mississippi (5.9), Alabama (5.5) and Indiana (5.2).
Overall turnout records were set in Alabama, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia.
Democratic turnout, as measured by their share of the aggregate vote for U.S. House of Representatives (see note 4), increased by 5.4 percentage points to 31.6 percent of the eligible vote, their highest share of the vote since 33.4 percent voted Democratic in 1964 and the largest year-to-year increase in Democratic turnout since women were enfranchised in1920. Democratic turnout increased in 46 states and the District of Columbia and declined in only four.
*The initial release said 2002. Curtis Gans has since corrected, adding, People at the age of 71 shouldn't pull all-nighters.
UPDATE: Commenter P-NNTO notes correctly that this is a significant adjustment to Gans' earlier projection, which I posted a couple of days after the election.
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1
Hi KT -- Any chance you might please post a couple of those charts. I read trend lines better than I read copy.
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Any thoughts on why Xavier Becerra turned down a position in Obama's administration. I asked in the prevous thread but, you were otherwise engaged.
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Thanks for interacting here. -
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Thank you Howard Dean.
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3
Fascinating.
Is there any way of extracting how many of those "Democrats" were Republicans in years past vs how many are new voters?Apologies in advance if its in the link.....
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Just looking at the Republican convention it was easy to see that they are currently struggling with a demographic problem. But we will probably have to see what the trends look like over the next couple election cycles to see if voter trends really are changing.
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Hey. changing internet providers.
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Saw my name a few times on another thread.
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But I only skimmed. Is cincy still around? What's the question?
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I see the Obama campaign had the same view about The Page that the Swampland commenters had.
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We all love The Page. Not. -
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In case you missed it:
'Staff members were encouraged to ignore new Web sites like The Page, written by Time's Mark Halperin, and Politico, both of which had gained instant cachet among the Washington smarty-pants set. "If Politico and Halperin say we're winning, we're losing,"'
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/magazine/21Gibbs-t.html?_r=1 -
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Jay, i was challenging KT about the interview you did w/ her and Jay Rosen:
"Come on KT, the 'I don't do the hiring at Time' has a total cop out quality to it. I don't think Jay liked that answer any more than I did."
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/12/16/newt-to-the-rnc-take-down-that-ad/?apage=4#comment-28482 -
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How did I miss that Presidential election in 2002?
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But how will all of this affect Caroline Kennedy?
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dumdedum - this must be from the West Wing universe.
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Lots of interesting stuff out there when you Google Gang of 500. And the "Gang of 500" reads Halperin, why? To think up your own campaign coverage, too much like work?
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When I set that up, the idea was that Jay Rosen, journalism professor and media critic in a discussion with Karen Tumulty, journalist and part of the media would be interesting.
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One of the unfortunate, and weird, things about those programs is that I often cannot remember what was said. It turns out that the listening carefully and thinking what to say interferes with longterm memory.
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Personally, I think "management is responsible for any biases" is a perfectly reasonable response. I also think it's true. Glenn Greenwald's remark at YearlyKos in 2007, that the right wing is very well represented in the media, but the left wing, especially the part of the left wing that Paul Dirks refers to, the one opposed to the Great American Hegemony Project, are not represented at all*.
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However, it is not Michael Scherer's fault that Noam Chomsky or Chalmers Johnson doesn't have a column in TIME. That would be Stengel's fault.
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The dite of media cricism I have found most difficult to communicate to what seem to be otherwise intelligent people is that the left and the right have different criticisms. The right wants "balance" without regard to accuracy, while the left wants accuracy without regard to balance. Balance being the lower of the two bars, it is the one that seems to dominate. What i believe is going on with the pumping of the Blago/Obama connection is an attempt to insert "balance." They need to run some negative stories, even if they are inaccurate or inconsequential.
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Personally, again, what is bothering me most about this is that we are now in a great deal more trouble than we were on September 12, 2001. The public opinion polls, with the very high favorability rating for Obama, indicate a rallying around the president in crisis effect. The press joined into that rallying around business in spades after 9/11. It's disturbing they are not doing so now, but are instead picking nits.
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*I think this is particularly reprehensible because opposition to the Great American Hegemony Project is a very widely held view, so widely held that the government finds it necessary to misrepresent the project under other guises. The press collaborates in this effort. You never see polling on questions like whether the US should continue the Japanese and German occupation, for example. -
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Forgot to add that the interview program is resuming on January 8th, Line up so far James Fallows on the 8th followed by Ian Welsh, Deborah Howell, Marion Nestle, clammyc of DKos, and Will Bunch.
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Juan Cole in March. -
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Not stated in KT's post is that WV's overall turnout was down. Makes me so proud.
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There are many reasons why Democratic turnout was up - including in the primaries - but I have to think the groundbreaking candidacy of Obama was a factor, as was HRC's in the primaries. And not just in a "I want to be a part of history" way. It is demoralizing to never see people who look like you (or your kids, or your spouse, or your friends) win the big prize in politics.
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Personally, again, what is bothering me most about this is that we are now in a great deal more trouble than we were on September 12, 2001. The public opinion polls, with the very high favorability rating for Obama, indicate a rallying around the president in crisis effect. The press joined into that rallying around business in spades after 9/11. It's disturbing they are not doing so now, but are instead picking nits.
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jayackroyd, well said. Although I disagree a little with your characterization of the left as being unconcerned about balance. For example, I'm not sure the press should be rallying around Obama now or that they should have supported Bush so much after 9/11. I'm uncomfortable with the press being cheerleaders for anyone. But if they rallied around Bush, they should do the same for Obama; My criticism in this case is mostly about balance. -
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but I have to think the groundbreaking candidacy of Obama was a factor,
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Ian Welsh remarked to me in a telephone conversation that Obama won Iowa by bringing out new caucus-goers, that Edwards did just as well as expected, and would have won if the same people had turned in 2008 as did in 2004. He came to this conclusion after a close analysis of the voting numbers.
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I agree, Rose, that by and large the press should play a critical rather than a cheerleader role. I'd be perfectly happy if they just reported stuff straight, all the time. -
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I'm uncomfortable with the idea that the press should "rally 'round" Obama. But I'm disgusted at Bush sycophants suddenly finding religion and self-righteously declaring that they need to be tougher on Obama because they kissed Cheney and Bush's . . . rings.
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jay, do you have a link to that interview between yourself and KT? Thanks
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20
This is pretty much OT, but I feel inspired: I serve as a civic commissioner for the city in which I live. Last night I witnessed the swearing in of our new mayor and city councilmembers (a majority shift mirroring that of the national election). Our local congressman took the opportunity to speak about the importance of local government, and it's relationship with national government. He said cities are where the problems start (foreclosures, lay-offs, health care and education issues) and where the solutions end (policy made on the national level), and the more we can do in our own community the better - he referenced a unique initiative my city passed to create our own growth boundaries, rather than defaulting to those of the state. Anyway, it got me thinking about Swampland, and the incredible depth of knowledge, wisdom and passion from the commenters that I read here daily. It is my hope that many of you are serving or will serve on your local commissions and councils. There couldn't be a better time than right now to consider it, as Barack Obama embarks on rebuilding the country from the ground up.
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21
Speaking of bad media coverage, here's the start of a NY Times piece on Caroline Kennedy: In a carefully controlled strategy reminiscent of the vice-presidential hopeful Sarah Palin, aides to Caroline Kennedy interrupted her on Wednesday and whisked her away when she was asked what her qualifications are to be a United States senator.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/nyregion/18upstate.html?hp
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She just started her campaign! It's a little soon to be comparing her to Palin. And it would be great for the media to stop comparing each woman politician to other woman politicians. Palin was compared to HRC, HRC was compared to Margaret Thatcher, and now Caroline Kennedy is being compared to Palin.
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BTW, that story was linked to by Ben Smith. Which brings up an interesting dilemma for feminist progressives looking at media coverage: the CW in the progressive community is that someone like KO is much better and more "progressive" than Ben Smith or Cokie Roberts. But those last two were among the least sexist members of the MSM in the campaign, unlike KO. Roberts in particular often talked more intelligently about gender issues than pretty much anyone in the MSM. Yet it's obvious that both of them contribute to the right-wing bias and triviality of the media. -
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Barack Obama seems to be doing his level best to prevent a recurrence of this turnout in 2010 and 2012.
By the way, Joe Klein might be encouraged to hear that Obama has just joined him as a leading Wanker of the Day.
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You don't have turnout without a well organized ground game. You don't have a well organized ground game without strong party apparatus. And you don't have that without Howard Dean.
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24
The increased dem turn-out is obviously the result of left-wing-community-agitation-group ACORN's campaign of voter fraud in support of radical Obama. (deep breath through mouth) How many of these "new voters" are named Mickey Mouse? How many dead people voted? How many times were these supposed 1st time voters able to vote?
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With the exception of Colorado, and possibly Indiana, the common denominator might be a large percentage of Black Americans.
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It helps to explain Newt's "change of heart" over tawdry ads.
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It also means that the Black community is a voter block that should not be taken for granted.
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After all, if the GOP were to make a strong effort to divest itself of it's race trolls, many, after the liberating effect of having the clout to be instrumental in deciding this election, might migrate there.
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That is, if the GOP were smart...
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