The Pakistan Shell Game
Word that Pakistan has arrested--no, detained--Masood Azhar, the leader of the terrorist group that pulled off the Mumbai assault is being greeted by great skepticism in both the U.S. and India, and with good reason. For one thing, Azhar had been similarly arrested in 2001, after his Lashkar-a-Taiba terrorists invaded the Indian parliament, but released 11 months later. But more important, it is finally dawning on some in Washington--if not exactly those packing their bags and shredding their files in the Bush White House--that Pakistan has played us for fools ever since September 11, 2001.
I'll have a lot more to say about this in the print edition this week, specifically with regard to the war in Afghanistan, but the combination of the Mumbai attacks and the incoming Obama Administration should represent the beginning of a new era with regard to US-Pakistani relations. There are those who counsel continued caution: the democratic government of Asif Ali Zardari is fragile. It has been making the right noises. It is beginning to fight the jihadi threat in its Northwest province and tribal areas. Zardari intends to lower the temperative with India and has begun to cooperate with Afghanistan.
All true, perhaps. But we simply don't know yet how much of this is words...and how much control the Pakistani Army--the true governing force in the country--still retains. Let's hope Zardari survives and prospers, but in order to verify his benign intentions, the Pakistani President should:
1. Either prosecute the Lashkar-a-Taiba leader as quickly as possible, or turn him over tot he Indians for prosecution.
2. Send a private message to Mullar Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban who operates openly in the Pakistani city of Quetta, that his presence is no longer welcome in Pakistan--and that his shura will be subject to the same sort of unmanned aerial strikes as have recently been visited upon the Pakistani Taliban in Waziristan. (Note: Pakistan's army has been willing to go after the al-Qaeda linked Pakistani Taliban, who represent a threat to its hegemony--but it has given safe haven, indeed tactical support, to the Afghan Taliban, in the hope that they keep Afghanistan weak and unstable.)
3. Give U.S. government interrogators direct access to A.Q. Khan so that we can learn the extent of his nefarious nuclear proliferation around the world. (Of course, Pakistani officials can be present during the questioning.)
4. Allow the presence of U.S. military training teams to teach counterinsurgency tactics to the Pakistani units fighting the Islamic extremists in the northwest. (And President-Elect Obama should make clear that the only U.S. funds that will be available to the Pakistani military will be targeted to the counter-terrorist effort--in other words, no more siphoning U.S. aid dollars to finance anti-Indian terrorist groups like Lashkar-a-Taiba or to build the Pakistani Army against the Indian threat.)
The world has become a more dangerous place because the Bush Administration took its eye off this particular ball in order to fight the war of choice in Iraq. It is up to the President-elect to let the Pakistanis know that the days of American carelessness are over. It is up to the Pakistanis to make clear that they truly want to be our ally in the struggle against violent Islamic extremism.
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It is up to the President-elect to let the Pakistanis know that the days of American carelessness are over.
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As I said before, paging Matt Bai. But no one ever checks up on your cheap shots made against the DFH's to bolster your "sensible centrist" cred. -
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While the four points sound nice, good luck carrying any of them off. A.Q. Khan is a national hero in Pakistan. I don't see the Pakistan leadership handing him over for any real "questioning" by the U.S. or anybody. And as for getting Mullah Omar to leave or reigning in the Pakistan tribal regions, good luck with that one too. Pakistan seems on the verge of being an officially recognized failed state. Failed states do not make for rational or reliable partners for much of anything. Let alone a war on terror.
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I would agree with most of those suggestions, except for number 2. [sarcasm]Because the Predator air strikes have worked so well on podunk little villages out in the middle of nowhere, they'll obviously work in a city of several hundred thousand souls.[/sarcasm] The rest sounds good to me.
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Give U.S. government interrogators direct access to A.Q. Khan
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Well, I would vote for a party with that platform plank, were I somehow registered in Pakistan now. But why should we expect that?
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It is up to the Pakistanis to make clear that they truly want to be our ally
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In most of the world, the Bush administration has discredited democracy and capitalism. Should we expect Pakistan to want to be on our side? -
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pattonmat89: Good catch. That is actually a pretty terrible idea, considering that people are getting plenty pissed about our use of air strikes on villages.
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Thank you Joe for the post and suggestions. However, I share the same skepticism shown above:
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1- It has been alleged (Juan Cole, for instance) that this group has connections to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence and it is unlikely that we'll see vigorous prosecution or transfer to India.
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2- The threat of more violence directed toward Omar may make him fight harder. He recently threatened an escalation in violence if US troops don't leave Afghanistan. Dito pattonmat.
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3- Unlikely, see queen-c.
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4- We'll see the political will on both sides.
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I should note that this is not a knock on Joe or the 4 suggestions, but a reflection of the clusterf@k in Pakistan. -
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Although apparently not pissed enough to toss the Taliban out...
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As QueenC touched on, the civilian gov't in pakistan is suffering froma double handicap on the antiterrorism problem: not only does the army not want any interference in what they consider a strategic resource, but some of these groups are so popular in Pakistan that moving against them could cause a public backlash. And of course reprisal strikes by other groups could do much to intensify public sentiment against the government by exposing their impotence.
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The Pakistani military has long used jihadists to fight proxy wars against superior forces. The first instance occurred in 1947 when Pakistan utilized tribal forces to occupy a part of Kashmir. Later, Pakistan with US support and aid, trained jihadists in Afghanistan to fight the Soviet occupation. There are only two instances of Pakistan fighting a conventional war - (1) in 1965 against India with the intention of defeating the Soviet armed Indian forces with superior US supplied arms, and (2) in 1971 against India and the fledgling Bangladesh which was in the process of seceding. With the balance of forces heavily in India's favor in recent times, the Pakistani military has fallen back on the tactic of trying to destabilize India utilizing jihadists as a proxy. The Pakistani jihadi problem is really one instigated and kept alive by the Pakistani army. As long as the army calls the shots in Pakistan, the problem will persist.
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As the previous commenters already implied, the military runs the country, not Zardari, who is the most clueless sort of puppet. He has no credentials other than being Benazir Bhutto's feckless playboy husband. And his true (lack of) power was evident when he offered the head of Pakistani intelligence to help with India's investigation, and it was revoked by the military brass. I'm sure he got a good boxing of the ears as well.
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There are no good answers to Pakistan, except to treat them with wary skepticism. Oh, and stop the money. -
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"It is up to the President-elect to let the Pakistanis know that the days of American carelessness are over."
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It's up to reality to let journalists and rah rah dead enders know that the days of American hegemony are over. There is nothing to be won in Afghanistan and if there ever was, the time has passed and we wouldn't have the money now anyway. It's over...our dad can't kick their dad's ass. Face it. -
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What is interesting to me here is the paucity of comment. Two nuclear armed nations, both punks of US foreign policy, are in serious confrontation. But that is completely trumped by other matters. The economic meltdown, the latest Chicago political scandal, out great hope for restoring democracy in America and our reputation in the world, what to do with Guantanamo, even the google queen, Sarah Palin. Does anybody else find this interesting?
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The Pakistani President does not have the power to do ANY of these things. He couldn't even send the head of the ISI to India - the head of the army overruled him. The problem is WAY more difficult than making demands. My only thought is to organize the threat of a boycott at the UN. One problem is that we have no leverage on the Saudis, who are financing the terrorists in Pakistan, both thru the ISI and, in the case of al Qaeda, probably outside of the army or government. This is another good reason to come to an agreement with Iran - we have a number of things to offer them, and they have a number of things to offer us - pressure on the Saudis, peace in Iraq, secure access to Afganistan, and a common border with the one Pakistani province which has seriously fought the Pakistani army.
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There is more to Masood Azhar. He was arrested by Indian authorities in 1994 because of his terrorist activities in India. Maood's brother
hijacked an India passenger airplane and killed one man who has returning from his honeymoon in Nepal. Indian government released Masood in return for the passengers. Masood fled to Pakistan and has been living there since then.How about that for playing everybody for fool. Amazing isn't it.
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I'm tired of writers like Joe Klein and TV talking heads lecturing other countries on what they should be doing to fight terrorism. Many of these countries are have extremely high poverty and I'm certain that the people didn't elect leaders to be servants of the US and its hedgemony around the world.
What exactly was Mullah Omar's crime?
The people of Afghanistan have for centuries have fought occupation for centuries and they will resist the US occupation as well. The US calls them terrorists because it elicit the visceral response from the ill informed citizens in the US which leads them to support whatever the US does in the name of fighting terrorism.
Countries like Pakistan need to focus on what it will take to make life better for its citizens and not get bogged down with the US and it's dumb foreign policy ambitions.
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Undoubtedly, now it is a bare fact and world is no more in dark, that what is going on in Pakastan on the name of action against the Terrorists.As the world pressure is mounting on Pakistan,she is playing a game of bliss in disguise. We all know that what is the meaning of arrest or house arrest of militants, and what is going there as a hidden mission.
It is very clear that Zardari can`t stop all that ,because, He himself is surviving under the sell of these terrorist group.Otherwise, his fate would be unlike Musherf.
If the President, Zardari happens to be so powerful then there would have been no terrorists activities,and since long they would have been eleminated.
Therefore,Pakistan is simply pretending and rather acting before the World body, nothing else. It is the right time to crush the terrorists and break tha cordon of the terrorists camps in Pakastan. -
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It's true that the Pakistani Army has a tremendous amount of political power in Pakistan. However, the Army is not some sort of terrorist entity in itself- rather the Generals came up with a strategy of using jihadi groups to fight a proxy war in Kashmir and Afghanistan. The jihadis were seen as a low-cost, highly effective force that had beaten the Soviets and could possibly drive the Indians out of Kashmir. More recently, many in the Army are beginning to see that the jihadis are not, in fact, low-cost. In terms of internal instability, international condemnation, negative economic impact and Pakistani lives, the tremendous cost to Pakistan is not so easy to deny anymore, even for the right-wing Generals. The Army has fought the jihadis very seriously in the FATA area of Pakistan, and many soldiers have given their life in this effort.
I think that Joe Klien's suggestions are on the right track. The key is to continue to raise the cost of the jihadi strategy, while helping to develop and encourage alternative strategies for Pakistan's geopolitical stability and economic development. In addition, I think it would help tremendously if India were to provide incontrovertible proof of the involvement of Pakistani citizens in the Mumbai Army, such as a detailed and verifiable autobiography of the single living terrorist, Azam Amir Kasab. In terms of domestic politics, this would make it much easier for Zardari and the Army to move decisively against LeT and other jihadi groups. -
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Finally someone the US is waking up to the games that Pakistan has been playing since their inception. They can not be trusted to follow through. They can only play the part but their true intentions always surface. The US has given them billions and billions. Pakistan is the biggest supporter of jihad factories. Pakistan is full of them and they hate the US. Listen to anyone of their Mullas. Pakistan receives info from US and gives to their ISI. ISI passes it to Al Queida and Taliban. We cannot ignore this anymore.
They have infiltrated Kashmir and effectively committed ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Kashmiri pundits all in their attempts to use terror to take over and steal what doesn't belong to them. They don't just want Kashmir. They want it all. look on YouTube. -
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Joe, how much more blood you will spill in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan with this kind of rubbish talk?
Have India given any proof to Pakistan? Zilch.
Pakistan has done for US, which even US hasn't done for itself. Pakistan should have said 'No', the next day of 9/11, when I read articles like these, but when I consider the majority of caring American public, I consider it fair to be with US.
Ghazala
http://pakspectator.com -
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"Ghazala Khan Says: Have India given any proof to Pakistan? Zilch."
Amazing! A murder suspect is the Judge and you can't find enough evidence to convince the Judge/murder suspect to convict himself of the murder.The proof is screaming at you. Stop living like an Ostrich with your head in the sand.
All roads on terrorism lead to Pakistan, that is a fact!
This could very well turn into nuclear terrorism with the A.Q. Khan fiasco. Ever wonder what happened to him? He was under "house arrest," just like the Mumbai terror suspects are.
PREDICTION: Few months from now this banned terrorist organization in Pakistan will start functioning under a new name all these arrested people will be set free because of "lack of evidence."
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Ghazala Khan Dear,
What abt the Terrorist caught in Mumbai alive? He is saying the truth now. So dear plz be assure and don't shit proof proof proof to the world. Everybody knows Pakistan is the Headquarter of all kinds terrorism. Islamic hardcore Jihadis are only born in Pakistan nowhere else. Actually what is the problem with Pak you know? You guys don't want to compete with the world. You are jealous for the developed and developing countries. You never develop with terrorism kinda views. Your Morales says to destroy the economy of non Muslim countries. Time came to think and judge what you did since last 25 years. Now world knows Terrorist born from Islam only. Islam never be a savor for mankind. You are destroyer. Barbarians. In the name of Allah you only kill destroy those who don't want to poke their nose in your problems. Muslims living through out the world are just jealous of development. IF YOU HAVE THAT MOTIVE you also can do in your country. What is the economy in Pakistan? Look the inflation there. Name some global companies in Pakistan? Come out of your hole and see the world. Leave the darkness and come to light. Work hard for development, education, democracy and social welfare. I know nothing will happen until MULLA kinda pplz holds the power in your country.
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