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McCain Camp: Things Are Getting Tight

On a brief jump flight from Philadelphia to Scranton, McCain adviser Charlie Black and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback came back to talk up the campaign's conviction that the glass if half full. "Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."

He was citing an unreleased internal McCain campaign poll of the state, which was completed last Thursday, said Black. (The campaign stopped doing its own polling after Thursday, he added, because television time through the election all had to be purchased by Friday.) However, public polls in Iowa suggest that McCain is still in a big hole. Last week, the Des Moines Register poll, which has a good record of prediction in that state, put McCain's deficit at 17 points, with Barack Obama garnering 54 percent of the support.

"McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa." Polls have narrowed sharply in Pennsylvania in recent weeks, though Obama still has a sizable lead of 7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Black said he had seen a poll recently that showed McCain tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, a crucial swing region of the state.

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  • 1

    Sounds as if Brownback has The Math that Rove had 2 years ago.
    Does "unreleased" mean you were not allowed to see it?

  • 3

    Mike Scherer,
    .
    From reading your post you know you really wanted to title it:
    .
    McCain Camp: Divorced from Reality

  • 4

    The numbers are still stacked against McCAin. He could make up ground in nearly all of the battleground states and still lose them. No margin for error...

    http://www.political-buzz.com/

  • 5

    Ok thanks Michael. It does sound very much like 2006. We shall see.

  • 6

    I assume they are keeping the internal polling in the same file folder as McCain's secret plan to catch OBL.

  • 7

    "... and then, the plane encountered turbulence as it dodged a unicorn from heaven with Ronald Reagan riding it."

  • 8

    Now we know why the McCain campaign is running so short on funds.

    It's not the $150K they spent on Caribou Barbie's Dream Wardrobe. It's all the money they blew on drugs.

  • 9

    Had to go see what Nate had to say. His pie charts do show tightening, but...
    ///
    Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:
    .
    John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
    Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.
    .
    Finally, where McCain has made progress, it has come mostly from undecided voters rather than Obama's support -- this is particularly the case in Pennsylvania.
    ///

  • 10

    A stand up guy like Charlie Black? you can take this to the bank.

  • 11

    Hard to say if they are really divorced from reality, whether they are drinking the Kool-Aid themselves or merely trying to get Michael and others in the press to drink it. And there are a lot of reasons why they might publicly argue for McCain's chances while privately abandoning hope: trying to push down-ballot Repubs across the finish line, trying to water down Obama's margin of victory so that he is less effective as President.

  • 12

    What else are they going to say? "We're hoping to keep That Guy to under 325 EV"

  • 13

    I hope they exit poll the question of how people's votes might have been affected by those town hall meetings.

  • 14

    [...] McCain adviser Charlie Black tells reporters on the press plane Sunday that his candidate is "in a good position in every Red state," feels confident in some key swing [...]

  • 15

    kth,
    .
    So is it your opinion that by SAYING the polls are tightening then magically the final tally will actually BE closer? Because if not then there will be no way to either water down the margin of victory nor push Repubs across the finish line. In fact the only effect I can see it having is making republicans lax because they think that Obama can't win anyway. So again how is this NOT the definition of being Divorced from Reality?
    .
    What they should be doing is what the white politician on the movie "Head of State" with Chris Rock did on election day when he saw the early poll results. He had the pundits proclaim the black guy is about to win! And then they cut to a scene of white people stampeding out of the suburbs to the polls. Thats about the only chance McCain has left.
    .
    This is the best clip of it I could find on youtube
    .

  • 16

    Is this thing on... ?

    "This Week" was basically a discussion of how big a margin Obama's win was going to be. That, plus the further eroding of Republicans in Congress.

    McCain's hope only rests with the possibility of Obama's younger supporters not show up because their cell batteries are dead and they couldn't hook up with their peeps at the voting place, "Yeah, man, like where was it again? Was it, like, posted on line?"

    Come to think about it we could still be in trouble.

  • 17

    The weird thing is how cheerful McCain is on the stump today. So does he really believe he can win? Do his advisers believe he can win, or are they massaging his ego so he'll fight til the end?

  • 18

    sginfla, if this election is fated to be the blowout that nearly all the number-crunchers are saying it will be (and not just them; George Will predicted Obama will win 370-plus EV on ABC This Week), then the bitters will be demoralized and stay home. By contrast, most Obama voters will still show in the event of a landslide, because they want to be part of a once-in-a-generation historic event. Thus the GOP needs the illusion of a close race to save their down-ballot candidates.

  • 19

    McCain is not going to win Iowa. He might pull out victories in PA and OH but not Iowa. And it's weird his camp would mention Iowa because it is not going to happen.

    Living in MN I can tell you folks in MN, WI and Iowa have lost a lot of respect for McCain because of his ugly tactics. There are more Arne Carlson Repubs in Iowa and MN than there are Michelle Bachmann type wingnuts.

  • 20

    Wow McCain is down only 1 point in Iowa, who cares about the other polls at 10+ for Obama. What does anyone expect from a political party that is enbedded in a culture of lies? For the past 8 years these criminals have lied about everything. What they have basically created is a culture of approval for lying and stealing. Their heroes - people like Sarah Palin, Joe the Plumber and anyone who lacks ethics.

  • 21

    Charlie Black has lied for dictators. This is easy.

  • 22

    Hey, MS, can you grab some of the drugs the McCain people are taking and share some of them with the rest of us? It sounds like some really good stuff.

  • 23

    Any member of the press every asked the McCain camp about why the company that Joe the Plumber works for Newell Plumbing of Toledo has an unsatisfactory rating with the Better Business Bureau? Here we have a major political party touting the glory of Joe the Plumber a man without a plumbing license who works for a firm most of us would never employ because they have an unsatisfactory rating with BBB.

  • 24

    I don't want to be Olbermannesque in my paranoia, but are there some doubts about the Iowa voting machines? I'm just trying to think of why they keep talking about Iowa.

  • 25

    "McCain is in a good position to win every red state," Black said. "Plus he is probably going to win Pennsylvania and Iowa."
    .
    LOL what?
    .
    Since Black is allowed to go around making sh*t up like this, am I allowed to go to the press and say whatever nonsense I come up with on the spot?

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