A blog about politics.

Bright Shiny States

ON A BUS NEAR NEW PHILADELPHIA, OHIO--There is a theory of political consulting that puts great value in bright shiny objects, those sparkly ideas, issues or tactics that can distract the press (and the voters) to deliver a message. The McCain campaign does this a lot: all that hubbub about ACORN registration fraud, for instance, or declaring a fatwa on the Los Angeles Times for the sin of keeping its promise to a source.

But the Obama campaign is not immune either. Campaign Manager David Plouffe's announcement today of new television ad buys in North Dakota, Arizona and Georgia can be put in this category. Obama does have an outside chance to win one or more of those states. But if he wins any one of them, he will almost certainly win in a lot of other places as well, with more than enough electoral votes to waltz into the White House. The real reason to announce new ads there is to distract the news cycle with bright shiny memes: Obama still has lots of money! Cold red states don't hate Obama! McCain is in so much trouble he might lose his homestate! Obama has momentum!

As a rule, the problem with the bright shiny object is that it is not itself evidence of any light source. Polling in Arizona shows McCain up anywhere from 2 to 7 points over five polls taken since October 23. (RCP average: +5.2)  In Georgia, McCain is up 1 to 6 points since October 22. (RCP average: +4.2) In North Dakota, McCain is either down 4 points, up 14 points, or something in between. (RCP average: Tie)

McCain's advisers, for what it's worth, say they aren't worried about those states. (They have other more pressing concerns.) "Look, I mean they have a lot of money, and we don't," said top McCain strategist Steve Schmidt, after a rally in Hanoverton, Ohio. "They have a lot of extra money to spend, and if they wanted to they could put it in all 50 states. At the end of the day, I don't think those decisions have anything to do about the campaign."

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  • 1

    Thanks for your dispatch from the Titanic. The ship is still going to sink.

  • 3

    Never let it be said that Mike Sherer wont go that extra mile to get that false equivalency in there. Lets see....Acorn registration fraud tearing the fabric of the country and undermining the election = "Georgia is in play". Saying Obama was cheering on anti semetic speeches and making a false controversy over a tape that has been written about for over 6 months = Putting up ads in Arizona because Obama is within the margin of error there in some polls. Yeah those bad Obama people, man I just don't see how anybody could support someone who is so negative.

    snark

  • 4

    Scherer that is. Dang it all, no preview

  • 5

    What? Arizona is mostly for spite, but close. Obama leads in ND. GA is within the margin of error. Is ahead and tied a mirage to you? Your post doesn't even make sense.

  • 6

    It's funny. I remember when having lots of money was said to be of overwhelming importance. What is Obama supposed to do? Leave money on the table?
    .
    And McCain is so not worried about Arizona that he's spending precious cash on RoboCalls. He also doesn't care that Napolitano beats him, head to head, for Senate in 2010.
    .
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893
    .
    (I've decided I like the one column look for comments, so I'm sticking with IE for awhile. Weird putting the periods in to force a paragraph when I'm getting carriage returns automatically when in an IE instance.)

  • 7

    Scherer, if you really wanted to do equivalence, you would quote Axelrod on why they're spending in red states. Instead of, you know, making fun of the Obama campaign like a gigantic d0ucheb4g.

  • 8

    Based on the polls that I have seen an Obama win in Arizona or North Dakota is more likely then McCain winning PA. And yet the McCain campaign has spent so much time in PA they could pratically apply for residency status.

  • 9

    queen,

    It not just that they are spending time in PA. Look at WHERE they are spending time. They are truly hoping that the backwoods come out in full force. Have you seen the new video from one of the back woods Pennsylvania rallys? Very sad

  • 10

    " Obama still has lots of money! Cold red states don't hate Obama! McCain is in so much trouble he might lose his homestate! Obama has momentum!"

    Yeah those are all so fake.

  • 11

    Michael, you might want to update this post, now that McCain has taken Obama's "bait" and is now forced to campaign in his home state of Arizona this Monday. If he weren't worried, would he be going there?

    http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&subsectionID=1&articleID=60787

  • 12

    No, no, no -- you are missing the point! The linked RCP data is ALL plus Obama for any poll conducted in October. ALL of the plus McCain polling is from a month and a half ago. This isn't even a disagreement. It's pure laziness and ignorance. Scherer hasn't even thought through the data in his own links. C'mon. This is very, very dumb. How lame.

  • 13

    You are missing the point! The linked RCP data is ALL plus Obama for any poll conducted in October. ALL of the plus McCain polling is from a month and a half ago. Honestly, TIME shouldn't have its name on such sloppy thinking. Oy.

  • 14

    I am referring to ND in the above.

  • 15

    Also, RCP doesn't even calculate and averge for ND but Scherer cites it as a tie -- because that poll is at the top where the averages usually are. Just really, really, grade school bad.

  • 16

    PNNTO,

    Seriously just how far did Mike Scherer have to go to come up with that. I mean obviously he wanted to blog about the LA Times situation. But he knew he would have to use some other stuff to kind of lessen the sting of his disagreement with how McCain is handling that situation about a confidential source. So he says "hey I can use Acorn voter registration fraud and then just try to find something that Obama has done recently too". LOL I wonder what the other false equivalent choices were.

    1. Obama bought a pumpkin from a McCain supporter

    2. Obama said he shared his pb n j but he only gave the smaller half

    3. Obama joked that McCain supporters should wait till Nov 5th to vote.

    4. Obama said his white half might want to vote for McCain

    Feel free to come up with your own

  • 17

    Even if we accept Scherer's premise that the spending in AZ is indeed a gimmick, it nevertheless sends an important message to supporters everywhere. It's a reminder that what's happening is in fact remarkable and encourages participation in what we hope will be a historic turning point. It may be a shiny object but if it encourages .5% additional turnout elsewhere, it will be money well spent.

  • 18

    PNNTO,

    Seriously just how far did Mike Scherer have to go to come up with that. I mean obviously he wanted to blog about the LA Times situation. But he knew he would have to use some other stuff to kind of lessen the sting of his disagreement with how McCain is handling that situation about a confidential source. So he says "hey I can use Acorn voter registration fraud and then just try to find something that Obama has done recently too". LOL I wonder what the other false equivalent choices were.

    1. Obama bought a pumpkin from a McCain supporter

    2. Obama said he shared his pb n j but he only gave the smaller half

    3. Obama joked that McCain supporters should wait till Nov 5th to vote.

    4. Obama said his white half might want to vote for McCain

    Feel free to come up with your own

  • 19

    I restate that the biggest tragedy of Swampland going down when it did was that it denied us the pleasure of MS writing about the poor woman with the backwards "B"

  • 20

    Just playing devil's advocate with the "equivalence" thing...
    .
    A typical Scherer post displays a McCain ad, and then mumbles about whether it's valid.
    .
    This one is giving the Obama view, and then mumbling about its validity.
    .
    Is this progress?

  • 21

    Re: incandenzah's Daily Courier link:
    .
    Prescott? McCain's taking the easy way out. It's all a bunch of old people, dumb sh!t flying students, and rednecks up there.
    He should come down to Phoenix and talk to all us decadent dissidents.

  • 22

    I saw nothing gimmicky in those ads, Micheal. Fact is, well maybe I shouldn't say 'fact is'. After all, I'm addressing a Republican shill. Facts and Republicans don't mix.
    .
    Ok. Scratch that. Heck! Forget it. I'll just say this:
    .
    McCain's toast.
    .
    See ya on the other side. I'm guessing you'll have plenty of wounds to lick and sour grapes to throw.

  • 23

    I've only recently discovered Swampland (I don't get out much.) So I figured the gigging of Sherer for his McCain infatuation was part partisan and part fun. But this alleged reasoning here is stunning in its simple-mindedness.

    Faux rage of the LA Times and campaigning in Arizona are gimmicks? And equal ones at that?

    What's the poor boy going to do after Nov. 4? Watch weepie DVDs alone, eat ice cream from the carton and wonder if, maybe, just maybe, he should call Johnny just one more time? Just to hear his voice...

  • 24

    Dammit. That should be "his alleged reasoning"

  • 25

    How was that moderated?
    Re: incandenzah's Daily Courier link:
    .
    Prescott? McCain's taking the easy way out. It's all a bunch of old people, flying students, and rednecks up there.
    He should come down to Phoenix and talk to all us dissidents.

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