A blog about politics.

Obama's Florida Bet

Politico reports this morning that Al and Tipper Gore will campaign for Obama tomorrow in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach – the first time the former vice president has stumped for a presidential candidate in the Sunshine State since his narrow loss there cost him the presidency in 2000.

The Goracle's trip comes after Obama held a midnight rally with Bill Clinton last night and broadcast live before 20,000 Sunrise, Floridians and millions of Americans for his 30-minute commercial. This morning we've just landed in Sarasota where Obama is scheduled to hold an early voting rally.

All of this points to an Obama bet that Florida could be an early clincher for him. Polls here close 7pm EST and if he takes Florida and simply holds the rest of Kerry's 2004 states it's game over for McCain. A DCCC source says to keep an eye on the vulnerable GOP Miami House races for an early indicator on how Dems are playing there on Election Night.

Early voting looks promising for Obama where registered Dems are outpacing GOP voters 45.4% to 39.0%, though there's no way of telling which way those ballots were cast. Obama holds a 3.5% lead in the RCP average and a 4% lead in our latest poll. And, taking no chances, Obama deployed his ground game guru Steve Hildebrand to Miami three weeks ago. Also lurking around the Sunshine State: Paul Tewes, the guy who won Iowa for him and had been Obama's liaison to the DNC, who's been hanging out at Obama's Tampa HQ. (Both men are mailing in their day jobs from Florida).

  • Print
  • Comment
Comments (47)
Post a Comment »
  • 1

    I guess when it comes to non-toxic surrogates, the Dems just have more. Good strategy to spread everyone out in the last week to all the battlegrounds.

    It's still gonna be the ground game that wins this thing.

    Where is the YOUTH VOTE? Those lazy little turnips aren't making it to early voting. Don't they want an economy with JOBS?

  • 2

    "the first time the former vice president has stumped for a presidential candidate in the Sunshine State since his narrow loss there cost him the presidency in 2000."

    Gore Won Florida - the election was robbed. There has been some excellent reporting by investigative journalists about the shenanigans in Florida 2000. More recently, there has also been some excellent work about what happened in Ohio in 2004.

  • 3

    Landslide.

    I hear McCain is pretaping his concession speech and will be releasing it from an undisclosed location.

  • 4

    "Don't they want an economy with JOBS?"
    .
    Believe it or not, Obama's championing of the $700B Wall Street kickback bill may not have completely convinced some of the younger voters that he has their best interests at heart.

  • 5

    I see that reporters are rapidly running out of ways to say, "People are voting. We don't actually know what's happening but are happy to mindlessly speculate."
    .

    Time to drink.

  • 6

    15 billion in profits for Exxon Mobil last quarter AFTER the financial crisis. I think this might be a de@th blow for McCain if Obama uses it right and I have every confidence that he will. Something like.
    .
    "People are hurting, record job losses, record home foreclosures, record debt.
    Now Exxon Mobil has been setting a record as well. While middle america is hurting Exxon Mobil brought in record proits in the last quarter. $15 billion dollars of profit to be exact. Now it sounds like exxon mobil is doing just fine. In fact they are doing well. So ask yourself why would John McCain want to give the Exxon Mobiles of the world another 4 billion dollars in tax breaks when he doesnt want to give working class americans who are the backbone of our economy a tax break?"
    .
    But of course with a lot more inspiration than that. I really think this could be the knockout blow

  • 7

    stuck in moderation. going to politico

  • 8

    To the management:
    .
    I think we can all agree that if the rest of the Time.com website and especially the advertisements was as functionally FUBAR as the comments section, it would be fixed in an hour.
    .
    But let me put this in a context that management may understand. Less/worse functionality = fewer visitors. Fewer visitors = fewer eyeballs and clickthroughs. Fewer eyeballs and clickthroughs = less ad revenue.

  • 9

    This is a time of world despair. Economic collapse with heightened military tensions - We owe Senator Obama our gratitude for giving us the option of hope. An open letter to the Senator. ................

    http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/29/senator-obama-to-sir-with-love-2/

  • 10

    Dems are outpacing GOP voters 45.4% to 39.0%, though there's no way of telling which way those ballots were cast

    I think that when all is said and done, that we'll find that an surprising large proprtion of registered Republicans voted for Obama. This reflects the number of people who think that Palin was the absolute last straw.

  • 11

    folks I think the Obama offensive on Fox is making a difference. Listen to Neil Cavuto change his tune a little bit.
    .
    http://crooksandliars.com/media/play/wmv/6692/23746

  • 12

    Hi Jay, Actually the polls only close at 7 EST in the main part of Florida. In the Panhandle polls close at 7 CST. This is a big deal because there was a dust-up over exit-poll reports came out before the Panhandle had finished voting. (A Bush cousin, working one of the Fox News desks, made a very accurate obvservation about this and Fox really ran with it, claining a MSM conspiracy.) In 2008 I wonder whether the nets are going to withhold the "results" (exit polls) until after the Panhandle closes.
    All best, Bill Burton

  • 13

    I wonder if anybody is going to bring up the fact that John McCain has not repudiated JTP for saying electing Obama would mean "the de@th to Israel."

  • 14

    Get da f outta here,
    .
    You arent the real Bill Burton
    .
    Are you?
    .
    Lol

  • 15

    Ha. Some of his best friends are old white guys. C'mon, scared old crazy people - you can do it! Vote O!

  • 16

    I don't know why everyone always forgets that Florida has two time zones. Every single election everyone seems to have the epiphany that the panhandle is still voting as they're trotting out the news that the polls are closed.

  • 17

    Sweet! I am tracking scary black people on Drudge's front page in the days before the election, and today's is one for the ages!

  • 18

    I honestly don't know how this would turn out but I would be interested in seeing how many new American jobs Exxon mobile created in the last year in light of their record profits. If thats a low number Obama could really destroy McCain's whole argument. Maybe a journalist should look into it hint hint

  • 19

    At least an academy award winning nobel laurate like Al Gore, would eclipse Obama as a big Hollywood celebrity.
    .
    JNS thanks for not speculating on the results of early voting. If Obama is elected do you become the new Time WH correspondent?
    .
    I understand the early voting exit polling will be folded into the election day exit polling to give a more holistic view of the exit poll results by state on Election Day.

  • 20

    McCain will be giving his concession speech from a bunker somewhere in Arizone. He has asked most of the Republican Party to join him there for one final goodbye.. Eva Braun.. oops Cindy McCain will be there with him... sort of a hale bopp type farewell, since most of the Republican Party has followed him down the path to final destruction. Unfortunately probably only Joe Lieberman will be in attendance. as Sarah Palin will be too busy to attend and the Republican candidates are all too busy freshening up their resumes because a lot of them will be looking for jobs in this terrible economy. Never a good prospect when old white men with few successful business experiences have to start looking for a job.
    Look for some of the Republican candidates to be out on street corners selling newspapers in the next few months.

  • 21

    Polls here close 7pm EST

    What about the panhandle!!! Doesn't that mean the state isn't done voting until 8pm EST?!?! Haven't we done this before!!! Aaahhhhh!!!

  • 22

    Yes, Florida does indeed have two times zones, EST and the late 1800's, also known as Selma Alabama early 60's

  • 24

    I like Lunchables.

  • 25

    .
    billburton: This is a big deal because there was a dust-up over exit-poll reports came out before the Panhandle had finished voting.
    .
    Yup, 'tho I'm less worried about how calling the race early based on Eastern time zone voting results could influence the panhandle. The 1st District hasn't supported a Dem as president since 1960, and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R +19. Reporting exit polling results from the other side of the state isn't going to have much effect on the panhandle...Of course, outlets like FNC are going to use something like that to try and reinforce the 'liberal media' myth, but whatever.

Add Your Comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.
Swampland Daily E-mail

Get e-mail updates from TIME's Swampland in your inbox and never miss a day.

Quotes of the Day »

Get & Share
LUCIANO GHIRGA, defense lawyer for Amanda Knox, the American student accused of murdering her roommate while studying abroad in Italy; a verdict is expected by the end of the week