It's the Turnout, Stupid.

I was just thinking that, although it is clunk this year, it was probably a good thing for Gallup to break out the "Traditional" versus "Expanded" models for all to see. Let's get it all the big changes on the table - demographic, regional, technological -- and then put it back together with a smarter look at who is a likely voter and why.

Any thoughts on the relationships between the likely/registered distinction and the waves of early voting that many states have seen?

But how much do Georgia and Missouri matter? Although I agree, big turnout could be the difference between a 390 EV blowout and a more traditional win. I'm not sure how much that matters, though, as recent presidents have shown the ability to govern as if they got 390 EV even when they didn't...

KT,
Its interesting that the McCain campaign, Joe Scarborough and the whole cast of characters at FOXNEWS all talk about the unprecendented turnout but don't want to use the registered voters numbers in all the polls. It just shows how afraid they are of reality.

I wonder who has the enthusiasm on his side? I understand Ohio is kind of an important state.

"The McCain campaign actually had to bus in school kids from the surrounding area in order to fill the event. As reported by MSNBC"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/mccain-camp-busses-in-sch_n_139300.html

It's basically a data wave coming ashore. The incentive for both parties is to get it right, so it's just a matter now of waiting for it to hit and sorting it all out. The increased transparency of the web has added an element of inspired amateurism that adds even more accuracy to the process in the same way that peer review does. We'll know a lot more about voting patterns in 2012 than we did in 2008.

There are many variables in play. My first question is how do we determine 'likely' voters. There are indeed a variety of different approaches. On of the more interesting post-mortems we could do, is examine the various polls after the fact and decide which ones were best at predicting who eventually turned out.

My second observation is - no wonder the Republicans are trying to maximize disenfranchisement. Interesting that the party that stresses freedom is nevertheless the most enthusiastic about stripping people of their most basic rights.

It's going to be an interesting night.

Click here for the definitive early voting data. Clearly, there is one conclusion: blacks are voting early disproportionate to their numbers in the population. You could say that was easy to guess, but guessing and seeing aren't the same things. The party affiliation data is mixed, but favors Democrats generally.

McCain's latest lie has me really steamed. He's claiming that "last night Barack Obama said if he lost this election he'd come back and try again in 4 years. Sounds good to me." Obama did not say anything like that. He told Brian Williams he'd go back to the Senate and do what he could to help the next President. Nora O'Donnell just had an Obama surrogate on - Ann Dunce, I mean Dunn - who did not bother to correct Nora's playing of McCain's piece. This is a further narrative of "Barack Obama's not ready - yet." McCain just makes up things.

How long does it normally take to "await moderation"? Actually, I'm glad to see moderation on this blog, is there a post somewhere describing the policy? (Sorry, I was on a trip to Asia the last 10 days and obviously missed some things).

Seeing part of the Williams' interview with Obama. BriWi asked Barack how he'd know what kind of justice he'd be appointing if he didn't ask particulars about how he'd rule. Barack then schooled Brian in the fact that having taught constitutional law for ten years he knew how to ask questions about judicial philosophy that would let him know what he wanted to know.

Speaking of data, this endorsement best summarizes what I most like about Obama, and it's from outside the echo chamber.

I honestly don't know what to make of early voting. This could be a crossection of what we see on election day

It's worth noting in any event, that the more early voting there is, the less stress there will be on the polling places on Tuesday. So even if the early voters are the more committed ones, they will make it easier for the more casual voter to participate as well.

Barack Obama just gave the most thorough answer you could imagine to Brian Williams on how he would go about picking Supreme Court justices. I really hope this guy wins on Tuesday. We deserve a president who actually knows sh!t.

"You could say that was easy to guess, but guessing and seeing aren't the same things."
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One possible motivation is that challanges, voting irregularities, and purposefully-legislated inadequate facilities might be a factor.

dennisdenuto114 - you have no idea how funny that comment is! um, yes, you've missed some stuff about moderation. Read through a few threads over the last few days. comments have to be liberated by hand (mostly by our lowly handmaiden Karen Tumulty, may she long prosper)

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Dennis - anything with a profanity or violent word in it gets put into moderation automatically...hence, even the word 'a$$ociation' has to be scrubbed to avoid getting picked up. I imagine that there's a limit on hyperlinks, but I haven't tested that yet.
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As for how long do we have to wait in moderation, it depends on whether or not the blogger (hi, Karen!) can drop everything else and clear out the queue.

dennis - avoid any words that have letter sequences in them that could trigger a moderation. For instance, you'll need to type p@ass, embarr@ssed, @ssumed.

Also ... adjectives are not permitted. Or nouns.

is there a post somewhere describing the policy?

Nope, it's completely hit and miss, AFAICT. "Rat f---er" is allowed, but heaven help you if you spell s3x with an 'e.'

oops. I goofed in the first version of this comment, and it got moderated!
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dennis - avoid any words that have letter sequences in them that could trigger a moderation. For instance, you'll need to type p@ss, embarr@ssed, @ssumed.

wow...I did use the word "blowout"...

And of course, you cannot directly copy/paste McCain/Palin "sentiments", as they are likely to draw the attention of the moderator to your commentary.
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Which btw, says what about GOP conduct this election cycle?

usually, early vote is overwhelmingly Republican. The fact that we are running even or slightly ahead in some places is a real good sign.