A blog about politics.

Casualty Report

I'm told that the U.S. military casualty report for Iraq last week was...4 wounded. That is wonderful news (and, of course, we hope the wounds weren't serious and our troops recover soon). But you've got to wonder why we have nearly 150,000 troops still on the ground there. Yes, there are continuing internecine conflicts--the Times has an ominous report today about the situation in Mosul--but it shouldn't be the job of the U.S. military to take sides in a squabble between Kurds and the Maliki government.

My guess--a reasonably well-informed one--is that significant withdrawals will begin after the first of the year, with at least two brigades rotating out of Iraq by the end of the winter (and their replacements rotating into Afghanistan instead). Withdrawals will continue apace thereafter, as Iraq transitions into a fairly standard, screwed-up and intermittently violent Middle Eastern state. Indeed, I am told that U.S. intelligence community now considers Pakistan the central front in the war on terror, especially after Al Qaeda tried to blow up the inner circle of Pakistani leadership in the Marriott Hotel bombing in Islamabad.

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  • 1

    Joe. Thanks for the good news, and best wishes to the wounded troops.

    But is there any reason to believe that the underlying sectarian divisions between Shia, Sunni, and Kurd have eased? Has there actually been meaningful political reconciliation? Has P.M. Maliki changed his mind about the "thugish" nature of the leaders of the Awakening?

    Is there any reason to believe that this is not the clam before a storm?

  • 2

    Ummm, that would be calm, not clam.

  • 3

    I liked it better as "clam."

  • 4

    Another indication that Obama was right in a general way. If troops start to come home before inauguration that would take some of the pressure off Obama (if he wins...) for initiating that.
    .
    Seems ironic now, doesn't it, that McCain took Obama to task for saying he'd go after Al Qaeda in Pakistan if Pakistan didn't pursue them.

  • 5

    wvng - hoping to find clams in the swamp?

  • 6

    It's unfortunate to note just how much our Presidential politics interferes with our ability to strategize coherently. If McCain were to win, you can be sure that the drawdown you describe will be delayed simply to prevent an "I told you so" and if Obama is elected, it will be accelerated just to assert I'M in charge now!

    I am told that U.S. intelligence community now considers Pakistan the central front in the war on terror

    This of course also means that the CIA is the central force fighting the war on terror. I have to think that that's a more effective use of our resources than throwing 150,000 soldiers at the wrong country was.

    All I know is that the overriding issue in this election is keeping John McCain, Randy Scheunemann, and James Woolsey the H377 away from our Middle East policy. As far as I'm concerned it even overrides the economy, because our boneheadedness in the ME is a big part of WHY our economy is in such dire straits.

  • 7

    It's unfortunate to note just how much our Presidential politics interferes with our ability to strategize coherently. If McCain were to win, you can be sure that the drawdown you describe will be delayed simply to prevent an "I told you so" and if Obama is elected, it will be accelerated just to assert I'M in charge now!

    I am told that U.S. intelligence community now considers Pakistan the central front in the war on terror

    This of course also means that the CIA is the central force fighting the war on terror. I have to think that that's a more effective use of our resources than throwing 150,000 soldiers at the wrong country was.

    All I know is that the overriding issue in this election is keeping John McCain, Randy Scheunemann, and James Woolsey away from our Middle East policy. As far as I'm concerned it even overrides the economy, because our boneheadedness in the ME is a big part of WHY our economy is in such dire straits.

  • 8

    Help!
    I've been moderated and I can't get up!

  • 9

    Joe,

    I'd love to hear your take on the reports that we the U.S. is threatening to cut off military operations by Jan. 1 if Iraq doesn't sign the SOFA.

  • 10

    "Digin clams by the side of the Bay, watching the tide go away, digin clams by the side of the Bay, wastin time."
    .
    Swamp clams taste like swamp.
    .
    Paul, I feel your pain.
    .
    And now I'm really off to the Obama rally in Harrisonburg.

  • 12

    wvng - watching another Obama rally live on CNN, even now.

  • 13

    Some of us remember when Johnson said it was time to bring peace to Vietnam and the war went on for another 7 years.

  • 14

    I don't think there's been any meaningful political reconciliation, but I don't think there's anything else we can do militarily do cause that to happen, since the "surge" didn't work in that capacity. It's going to be ugly after we leave.
    .
    Afghanistan is going to get uglier, too, since we let it languish in order to pursue the Iraq fantasy. It's iffy now whether we can salvage that situation.
    .
    There is little good news, for the long term.

  • 15

    Its almost like swampland is TRYING to make us leave. I have been jonesing so bad I had to go over to politico and do some troll whacking. I would much rather have an intelligent conversation here but the set up is just killing my eyes and we are only getting like 2 blogs a day from the Swamplanders. A week away and this is the BEST they can do?

  • 16

    moderation h e double hockey sticks. Im off to politico

  • 17

    The moderation on this site is unbelievable. Why are we all being punished because a few Republicans tried to trash the place?

  • 18

    how about the obama supporters shouting down the mccain supporters at a rally

  • 19

    I'm going to leave the swamp. My former posted name automatically gets me sent to purgatory, so I can only take that as the High sheriffs signal to move on. I really enjoy the community here. However, it's very frustrating to want to interact and not be able to do so.

    I wish you all well and hope see you again...perhaps after the election. A from MA

  • 20

    Andy, KT said they are working on the moderation. Please hang in for a while longer.
    .
    OT, but Jon Stewart on political pundits.
    http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=189139&title=who-the-f@#k-is-that-guy

  • 21

    As I sit here listening to wingnuts at a Palin rally shouting drill baby drill I am struck by the fact that not even one journalist has written an article about how much lower the price of gas has fallen because of the financial crisis. Lets connect the dots here. If this was truly a supply and demand problem our supply has not gone down to justify the lower price. However if it has been as the Democrats allege a problem of too little regulation of the commodity trading then a financial crisis would in fact lower the price. This is the most direct evidence that drilling off shore will have little to no effect and that the real factor on gas and oil prices will come from reform of the commodities traders

  • 22

    ibv - we'll try this new moniker for awhile.

  • 23

    sgwhite, that is something I have wondered about as well. Yesterday I got gasoline and the price was a dollar lower than it had been earlier this summer. When I locked in a price for my heating oil for the winter, I didn't take the higher price that would fluctuate up or down because I figured there would have to be a $200 difference over the months for that to work out. Now it looks as though I chose the wrong option.
    .
    I find it bizarre that McCain and Palin are still doing that drill baby drill stuff and they haven't been called on it. Of course it wasn't true in the beginning and they were rarely called on it.

  • 24

    I am told that U.S. intelligence community now considers Pakistan the central front in the war on terror...

    Paging Matt Bai.

  • 25

    As a public service, I've just uploaded screenshots of where you need to go in order to alter your screen-name in WordPress.

    Find them here:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/phd9/2978093757/
    and here:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/phd9/2978964242/

    Go to My Account - edit Profile

    Name
    Username phd9 Your username cannot be changed
    First name
    Last name
    Nickname Paul Dirks
    Display name publicly as Paul Dirks

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