A blog about politics.

More Elections

For those who haven't had quite enough, thank you, of the vagaries of democracy, there are two fascinating, maybe crucial, elections coming down the pike in early 2009--in Israel and Iran. (Actually 3: the regional elections in Iraq, scheduled for late January will be pretty important, too.)

Now that Tzipi Livni has failed to form a government--those pesky ultra-orthodox parties play Chicago ward politics and her proposed bribes were insufficient--there will be elections in Israel in February or March. The current front-runner is the eternal Binyamin Netanyahu of Likud, who sets neoconservative hearts aflutter in the U.S...but who knows how this will shake out? Livni is much admired in Israel--and clean...but is she tough enough? (Does this sound familiar?) She faces competition not only from Bibi on the right but also from (Ehud) Barak on the left. If Netanyahu and Obama win, there could be some real tensions between the U.S. and Israel. If Netanyahu and McCain win--kaboom--there will be a much more aggressive, perhaps martial, posture toward Iran.

Speaking of Iran, there are intriguing reports today about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's health. He's exhausted, it is said--a condition that might have something to do with the unpopularity of his domestic policies (30% inflation) and the probability that he will face a tough reelection fight next June. Ahmadinejad is likely to be challenged by the reformers--Mohammad Khatami, who proceeded Ahmadinejad and raised some hopes for reform, but didn't have the power to do very much, may run again. And so may Ali-Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, another former president--and the candidate of the business elites (but considered corrupt by the public). More to the point, Ahmadinejad may be challenged by a candidate favored by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, whose support tends to be pivotal (his minions supported Ahmadinejad in the runoff against Rafsanjani last time, but there have been signs that Khamenei may have had second thoughts). As with all things Iranian, the import of this election is murky, although it may be provide an indication of how public opinion is trending. If the Supreme Leader really pushes a preferred candidate other than Ahmadinejad, the election may be very significant, indeed.

The Iraqi elections will be closely watched as an indication of the relative strength of the Shi'ite parties. Will Malaki's Dawa Party gain strength? Is Muqtada al-Sadr still a force? And what about the Iranophilic Hakim family's fate? Since these are regional elections, they'll have only a tangential impact of the future of the Baghdad government. But they'll be a leading indicator--and, if they proceed quietly, it will be another sign that our job in Iraq is getting closer to finished.

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  • 1

    proceeded=preceeded

  • 2

    Competition from the left as well as the right? Fascinating! Our political scientists should study this -- how do you say it? -- multi-party system.

    BTW, I lost my nom de plume with the transition to wordpress. You all will have to learn to be annoyed by me with a new name.

  • 3

    Thanks for some smart grown-up stuff, Joe.
    -
    I wonder how strained US-Israel relations would really be were Netanyahu and Obama to win. The Israeli public soured very rapidly on the misguided incursion into Lebanon. I wouldn't think that Netanyahu would be eager to do something that counterproductive and unpopular-- unless, of course, he's drawn the McCain/Kristol lesson that we just need to kill them harder next time.
    -
    Of course, if Netanyahu takes similar action against Palestinian territories, that could well cause tensions.
    -
    Also, I'd thought that Khatemi had lost popularity due to his inability to push reform.

  • 4

    What sg said.
    .
    I think its easier to read gizzards and tea leaves than to attempt a successful guesstimate on Iranian politics. A 'safe' bet is that Achmedinajad is likely on the way out unless something happens between now and then--he just doesn't seem to have much support from any section of the populace.
    .
    Israel I can't begin to speculate on, but an Obama win could take some of the wind out of Netanyahu's sails--or give him a mandate. It really comes down to how safe they feel, though I'd say any israeli politician is likely 10x as martial as any US candidate by necessity.

  • 5

    I think Joe Klein has hit on where the "test" will be coming from, for the next U.S. president, Iran or Israel. Interesting.

  • 6

    Hammerlock, I wonder if his health is treated by the same system that the Soviets used, and I'm not talking about medical care if you get my drift.

  • 7

    sqrl - what was your previous nom de plume?

  • 8

    If Netanyahu and McCain win--kaboom--there will be a much more aggressive, perhaps martial, posture toward Iran.
    .
    How much more martial can we get? I mean, if our stance gets any more aggressive we'll have to start (ahem) engaging in martial relations with them.

  • 9

    I think it's Cincy, Cliff.

  • 10

    Cliff if Bibi and McCain are in office at the same time you can count on an all out war between israel and iran with us jumping in and probably russia and china coming at us. It might be a scene out of Red Dawn for real

  • 11

    Exhaustion? Here in the US that typically means you've been doing way too many under-the-counter pharmaceuticals. Does that mean he'll be checking into the Betty Ford clinic sometime soon? There's a mental picture for you - Ahmadinejad in primal scream therapy with Lindsay Lohan.

  • 12

    .
    "You all will have to learn to be annoyed by me with a new name."
    .
    Nah. It's inconvenient as all he11, but:
    .
    1. Goto http://wordpress.com/
    .
    2. Click the 'Your Dashboard' link in the upper-left corner of the page.
    .
    3. Click the 'Profile' link in the upper-right corner of the page.
    .
    4. Scroll down to the 'Name' section and enter your old name in the 'Nickname' section

    5. Click the drop-down next to the 'Display name publicly as' label and select your nickname.
    .
    6. Scroll to the bottom of the page and click the 'Update Profile' button.
    .
    Next time you log in, your nickname should display. The High Sheriffs could have taken a few minutes to provide the site commenting conventions and instructions on how to transition to WordPress, but hopefully that should help.

  • 14

    Andyinny - KGB-style comprehensive coverage?

  • 15

    As with all things Iranian, the import of this election is murky

    Does everyone remember "Kremlinology" wherein everyone tried to determine the future of Russian politics by ascertaining who was sitting next to whom during the Mayday parades?

  • 16

    Pirate Wench, yes...the copay is very expensive...a killer.

  • 17

    Pirate Wench, yes...the copay is very expensive...it's moider.

    Paul Dirks the target demo was: age 75 to deceased of that crew.

  • 18

    As a public service, I've just uploaded screenshots of where you need to go in order to alter your screen-name in WordPress.

    Find them here:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/phd9/2978093757/
    and here:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/phd9/2978964242/

    Go to My Account - edit Profile

    Name
    Username phd9 Your username cannot be changed
    First name
    Last name
    Nickname Paul Dirks
    Display name publicly as Paul Dirks

  • 19

    Let me see if this works.

  • 20

    I think this works much better. Thank you Mr. Dirks.

    BTW Mr.Carney just posted his story on McCain's comeback.

    Tire swing 4ever!

  • 21

    I think this works much better. Thank you Mr. Dirks

  • 22

    Thanks Paul

  • 23

    I know this news is completely o/t but Junior Johnson, a NASCAR living legend, endorsed Obama.

    The fact tha old-timey white Southern Dems like Dean Smith, Ralph Stanley and Junior Johnson have embraced Obama really is big news. And so did Andy Griffith.

  • 24

    sgwhiteinfla - He11, if it's just McCain in office we'll probably be facing war with Iran. A hawk in charge of Israel will probably just cause the Middle East to go into multi-ball mode.

  • 25

    Obama's speech was hot. I think it'll work.

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