Poll Panic

The McCain campaign is worried enough about the new ABC/Washington Post poll that they've scheduled a conference call for 10:30 am to try to debunk it. The poll gives Obama a 9-point lead, 52-43, among likely voters nationally, and suggests that voters' fears about the economy are driving them toward the Democratic nominee. Although the trend for the past week or so has definitely been in Obama's favor, this poll does seem to be a bit of an outlier, at least at the horse race level. Or it may be a leading indicator. Regardless, it shows shifts among key voting groups -- white women, college-educated whites, etc -- that are bad news for McCain if they hold. The poll also registers a significant drop of support for Palin among independents and college-educated whites.

UPDATE: McCain and Obama agree! In response to this post, Dan Pfeiffer of the Obama campaign emailed to say: "When the Post poll had us down 2 a few weeks ago, Plouffe went on the record and said the poll was wrong. We also think that this poll is wrong." He went on to say that although they aren't conducting national polls for the campaign, they believe an 11-point swing in two weeks is unrealistic in such a divided electorate.

UPDATE: On the con-call, McCain pollster Bill McInturff lavishes praise on the Washington Post's polling operation, but says this poll is an outlier. He says it gives Democrats a plus-16 advantage in party identification within the poll sample, which is much greater than what other polls are showing.