Sarah Palin's Odds

These markets are notoriously conservative (apparently liberals only gamble with foreign policy, not markets!), but, still, worth following:

It started this morning has been steadily rising.

Explanation, from Intrade:

Last Price: 12.7

What does this mean?

12.7 means the market predicts there is a 12.7% chance that [Sarah Palin withdraws her nomination] happens.

If you think is [MORE likely than 12.7% that she will withdraw] you should BUY

If you think it is [LESS like than 12.7% that she will withdraw] you should SELL

All markets trade between 0 ($0.0) and 100 ($10).

12.7 = $1.27