Conventional Wisdom

Just so everyone knows, I polled a bunch of journalists last night and we decided that Hillary needs to beat Obama by at least six points in Pennsylvania for it to be a win.

You say a win is a win is a win? Ha, ha. A win is what we say it is. By which logic, of course, Hillary was elected president late last year before losing to Obama in February.

More seriously, just because she's going to win doesn't mean the race won't be interesting. People will be watching the exit polls to see, among other things:

• Who the first-time voters go for

• Who the blue collar voters go for

• Who the late deciders go for

None of these things will make Obama magically win the state or magically deliver the nomination to Hillary. But Clinton winning over any one of those groups means she has an excuse not to go away.

Update: The six percent number was intended as a kind of parody. What constitutes a "win" for Hillary will be largely determined by whether or not she gets the nomination. Maybe more than largely. Fwiw, I did actually ask my table companions last night to predict her margin and six was the most popular guess.