The Coming Electoral Map

The good people of NBC News, where political coverage is led by Chuck Todd, the old Hotline handicapper, have put out a must-read sketch of the coming electoral map. If anything else, the predictions give some credence to the arguments of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. They certainly do appear to have different strengths against McCain in a general election. As to who would be stronger, that is somewhat less clear from this analysis. It takes 270 votes to win the prize.

Obama vs. McCain

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain

Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)

So what say you Swampland commenters? Did Todd and Co. get it right for your state?