The Clinton Campaign has a growing problem: The media referees in the ring are itching to call the Democratic bout.
First we got the big Kahuna, New York Times chief political sage Adam Nagourney, weighing in A1-style yesterday on Clinton’s diminishing chances to ever win the nomination. “If there is a road to victory for Mrs. Clinton, it is a fairly narrow one,” he concluded, somewhat delicately.
Now we get a far more extraordinary verdict from Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei at Politico, who say not only that Clinton as “virtually no chance” of winning, but that those who think otherwise are space cadets.
Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else. People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.
Everyone, including the Clinton camp, more or less agrees on the facts: Clinton will not win the pledged delegate battle, but she could come back to take the popular vote. (A debate remains over whether Michigan and Florida should count.) At that point, she would have to convince the Democratic Party that Obama, who is being increasingly painted as the nominee-in-waiting, should be pushed aside.
It’s a tough sell, but it will be made a whole lot tougher if the media referees keep writing stories that describe Obama as the inevitable victor. This leaves reporters in the political equivalent of that weird Schrödinger’s cat quantum physics conundrum: By observing a fact, you determine the outcome.
Not saying that is the case. Just saying it could be. Or I am admitting that I am a space cadet. Or whatever.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
1. A reporter friend points out that I missed the big point in this post. For Hillary to win, she has to convince a few hundred superdelegates that she should win, not the great mass of the Democratic Party. Of course superdelegates are far more likely than most to pay attention to what Nagourney, VandeHei and Allen say. So the cat is most certainly going to die, or is already dead, or whatever.
2. Now that Politico is back in the iron-clad prediction game, let us take a moment to think back on that article Politico’s editors wrote after New Hampshire: “Why Reporters Get It Wrong.” Argued VandeHei then, admitting fault:
“Us” is the community of reporters, pundits and prognosticators who so confidently — and so rashly — stake our reputations on the illusion that we understand politics and have special insight that allows us to predict the behavior of voters.
3. And yes! yes! Three Stooges: Niagara Falls