I Think It's Closer

The Des Moines Register poll.
And Happy New Year to all, even the trolls.

Update: This CNN poll has Romney and Clinton doing much better than the Register poll does.

Last night, in the saloons of Des Moines, the Edwards people were expressing deep skepticism, as several readers here have, about the model used for the Register poll--too many independents, too many first time caucus goers. And that is a crucial point: Polls are as subjective as they are "scientific." They are based on the pollster's opinion of who is going to turn out.
In an election--well, not even an election, a caucus--like this one, where vast numbers of newcomers may, or may not, turn out, polling isn't very reliable. Just have to wait and see.

And More: Here's some good analysis of the Register poll and pollster from Mystery Pollster.