The Only Polls that Count...

Are on election day, or so I've heard. And the national polls are useless, at this point. And Iowa polls are notoriously unreliable, but this poll of the early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, but especially Iowa, from the relatively reputable CBS-NYTimes numbers crunchers is fascinating on two counts.

The Democratic race is a three-way dead heat in Iowa. We already knew that, but still...a three-way dead heat.

And Mike Huckabee is moving on the Republican side, within six points of Mitt Romney, which is potentially big news because most people had assumed that Romney was a lock, given the bazillions he has spent there.

Now this caveat: Iowans are perverse. They will insist on changing their minds several times, just to keep all of our attention focused on them, between now and the caucusing. It's sort of like roller derby, with lots of elbowing and slipstreaming and then someone or ones break loose from the pack and...crashes into the rail, or occasionally, wins.

In any case, there is no inevitability in Iowa. Time to start paying close attention. I've bought a new winter coat, which includes the better part of a sheep as lining, for the occasion. I"m ready to roll.